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that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand"
$AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs)
An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected.
A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings.
Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting.
Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
翻译：
很多人都在问 $SIVE 2 天后的业绩。
我重点关注的是：
1. 我希望在光子学联合开发/认证/合同方面看到更多进展。
-> $AAOI 表示有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器，但他们不得不婉拒
-> $MTSI 表示很多客户找他们要 CW 产能，但要到 2027 年下半年才会投产
所以要看这家公司是否会成为 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商、$JBL 的可插拔方案供应商（例如 intel siph），以及 Ayar 的 CPO 供应商。
如果他们还处在一个更有议价能力的位置：
-> 拥有独立的 CW DFB 供应（与 Win semi 合作）
-> 拥有 CPO 级激光器
那对更多客户找上 Sivers 会非常正面。
2. 已在推进的项目转化为放量
-> 我最看好 $JBL，这可能会是 2027 年上半年主要的营收爬坡来源。
-> $AEVA 可能小得多，但应该会在 2026 年下半年贡献一部分。
-> Ayar 和光互连 I/O 相关玩家都已经说到 2028 年才进入 HVM，所以那部分我并不指望太多。
-> 他们其他可插拔客户的联合开发（上次业绩电话里提到的）转化为认证，再进一步转成放量。
除此之外：
3. 纳斯达克上市
-> 他们之前已经给过“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以这次我并不太关注把它进一步缩窄。更新一下当然还是好事。
4. 财务
-> 同样地，对认证周期内的公司来说，当前财务并不是重点。先提醒一下，这个季度会有一些一次性的会计处理，会让表面数据看起来受影响。
核心还是看未来几个季度的放量。
-> 营收管线增加
-> 是否签下任何早期量产合同
考虑到他们最近完成了 7000 万美元融资，而且稀释压力已经消除，资产负债表方面的担忧现在应该已经缓解。
额外加分项：
-> 是否有拿到产能保障的信息，比如“我们已经锁定了大量 CW 产能”——在当前短缺环境下，这会是非常强的信号。
-> 重申 AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent 提到的需求，比如“我们拿到的任何产能都会被需求消化”。
$AAOI 在表示预计 2027 年产能约 4.71 亿美元后，股价从 30 美元暴涨到 220 美元，并把这点重申进了营收指引里。
（不过后来做了很多 ATM）
如果 Sivers 能给出一个更激进的看多情景，并对未来时间点给出“满产营收”表述，比如 2028 年上半年，那会很不错，但我并不期待。
如果估值进一步重估，对并购也会有帮助，比如未来为了加速营收，像 Cloud Light 这种收购。
显然 Sivers 还有其他放量机会，但我认为市场主要还是在押注光子学。
不管怎样，对接下来会发生什么都很期待。
$AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs)
An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected.
A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings.
Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting.
Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
翻译：
很多人都在问 $SIVE 2 天后的业绩。
我重点关注的是：
1. 我希望在光子学联合开发/认证/合同方面看到更多进展。
-> $AAOI 表示有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器，但他们不得不婉拒
-> $MTSI 表示很多客户找他们要 CW 产能，但要到 2027 年下半年才会投产
所以要看这家公司是否会成为 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商、$JBL 的可插拔方案供应商（例如 intel siph），以及 Ayar 的 CPO 供应商。
如果他们还处在一个更有议价能力的位置：
-> 拥有独立的 CW DFB 供应（与 Win semi 合作）
-> 拥有 CPO 级激光器
那对更多客户找上 Sivers 会非常正面。
2. 已在推进的项目转化为放量
-> 我最看好 $JBL，这可能会是 2027 年上半年主要的营收爬坡来源。
-> $AEVA 可能小得多，但应该会在 2026 年下半年贡献一部分。
-> Ayar 和光互连 I/O 相关玩家都已经说到 2028 年才进入 HVM，所以那部分我并不指望太多。
-> 他们其他可插拔客户的联合开发（上次业绩电话里提到的）转化为认证，再进一步转成放量。
除此之外：
3. 纳斯达克上市
-> 他们之前已经给过“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以这次我并不太关注把它进一步缩窄。更新一下当然还是好事。
4. 财务
-> 同样地，对认证周期内的公司来说，当前财务并不是重点。先提醒一下，这个季度会有一些一次性的会计处理，会让表面数据看起来受影响。
核心还是看未来几个季度的放量。
-> 营收管线增加
-> 是否签下任何早期量产合同
考虑到他们最近完成了 7000 万美元融资，而且稀释压力已经消除，资产负债表方面的担忧现在应该已经缓解。
额外加分项：
-> 是否有拿到产能保障的信息，比如“我们已经锁定了大量 CW 产能”——在当前短缺环境下，这会是非常强的信号。
-> 重申 AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent 提到的需求，比如“我们拿到的任何产能都会被需求消化”。
$AAOI 在表示预计 2027 年产能约 4.71 亿美元后，股价从 30 美元暴涨到 220 美元，并把这点重申进了营收指引里。
（不过后来做了很多 ATM）
如果 Sivers 能给出一个更激进的看多情景，并对未来时间点给出“满产营收”表述，比如 2028 年上半年，那会很不错，但我并不期待。
如果估值进一步重估，对并购也会有帮助，比如未来为了加速营收，像 Cloud Light 这种收购。
显然 Sivers 还有其他放量机会，但我认为市场主要还是在押注光子学。
不管怎样，对接下来会发生什么都很期待。
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原文：
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days.
What I'm watching out for:
1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts.
-> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away)
-> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027)
So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO.
And in a merchant position:
-> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi)
-> CPO-grade lasers.
Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers.
2. Ongoing developments turning into volume
-> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027.
-> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026.
-> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there.
-> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume).
Aside from that:
3. NASDAQ listing
-> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update.
4. Financials
-> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically.
Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters.
-> revenue pipeline increase
-> any early volume contracts signed
Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone.
Bonus cookies:
-> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages.
-> Reiterate demand
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days.
What I'm watching out for:
1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts.
-> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away)
-> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027)
So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO.
And in a merchant position:
-> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi)
-> CPO-grade lasers.
Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers.
2. Ongoing developments turning into volume
-> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027.
-> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026.
-> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there.
-> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume).
Aside from that:
3. NASDAQ listing
-> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update.
4. Financials
-> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically.
Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters.
-> revenue pipeline increase
-> any early volume contracts signed
Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone.
Bonus cookies:
-> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages.
-> Reiterate demand
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Edited
大饼 8万 附近干1%仓位空 不插针 不仓位 必须有波回调！ 就搞1%仓位 看清楚！
💬 回复 必到哥（我从来不会主动给任何人私聊）
大饼 80500附近干1%仓位空 不插针 不仓位 必须有波回调！ 就搞1%仓位 看清楚！ 左侧摸顶
💬 回复 必到哥（我从来不会主动给任何人私聊）
大饼 80500附近干1%仓位空 不插针 不仓位 必须有波回调！ 就搞1%仓位 看清楚！ 左侧摸顶
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如果比特币 80150 压不住 他又上去了， 我建议是止损出来 ，再找机会空 ，300个点，今天盈利足够了，如果你不想止损，最多不可以突破趋势线后突破这个80888这里不可以再创新高，再创这就变成三角形调整突破了
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所长今天给了两个追多的，单子止损都非常小，利润加一起也有1000多个点了，现在我们是想尝试空了，那就还要参考这个80150，也是非常小的止损，小止损是需要很好的时间切入点，整不好就容易止损，所以各位开的时候有点耐心，这里既然想空，所长已经把充电视频给各位看了，如果你理解不了，或者这里反弹止损，你理解不了的话，你看看那个视频，这里其实已经开始出现了信号，到底能不能直接下去我也无法确定，都是要尝试的。
所长给的策略，肯定比你自己乱开好一些，所以各位别反反复复纠结问我，我也需要时间去看盘去思考，谢谢各位理解
所长给的策略，肯定比你自己乱开好一些，所以各位别反反复复纠结问我，我也需要时间去看盘去思考，谢谢各位理解
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比特币 尝试空进去
止损：15分钟再次站稳80150
止盈：79100-78750-78100
止损：15分钟再次站稳80150
止盈：79100-78750-78100
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最新一对一【限价策略】已经给出！
想要跟上朋友的速度联系，
💹点击联系 @TraderChenge
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年左右和 3 家在合作？），但我们 3 天后就会知道更多。
我还是觉得他们那笔 $70m 融资可能和锁定产能有关。
- CW 激光代工厂——就是 Win Semi / 台湾厂商。
我当时很惊讶，这些公司的定价权远低于实际激光芯片产出。所以我继续押 $SIVE、并更偏下游，看来是对的。
因为 CPO 激光的毛利率大概有 55-60% 左右，甚至可能更高。
- 混合键合（唉，抱歉）——被推迟到 2029-2030 年，比如 Auros
- 玻璃核心基板，比如 $LPK（一般）——早期爬坡被推迟了大概半年，来自 Samsung Electro-mechanics 和 SKC Absolics。虽然不算世界末日，但大概率全面爬坡要到 2029 年
- 外延片：产能已经受限，比如 $IQE / Landmark
- 量子点（有意思的那个）：
量子点其实最让我意外的是，在我看了 SK Hynix 的 CPO Nature 论文后，大家对它的关注度有多高。
这可能是出于美国国家安全考虑，想借助 $ALMU 等公司缓解 InP 瓶颈。
我猜 $ALRIB + Veco 未来 1 年里会像 $AIXA 一样，卡住这类量子点设备的关键瓶颈。大多数人根本不理解 Riber 在做什么，我的猜测是这样。
但如果真要投资量子外延工艺，TAM 其实特别特别小。因为它只是外延片的一个子集，而 $IQE 其实是这个领域的领导者。
你更应该去看这些量子点玩家做出来的激光器规格？但材料本身也非常关键。
至于机器人（比如电池、执行器）——我的看法是，量产规模还是太小了。所以我不会把太多资金配置到上游供应商。
这类行业得先有一个像 $CCXI、Unitree 这样的下游龙头（类似 OpenAI/Anthropic）强力拉动，才能带起整个赛道，所以我还是先押人形机器人公司。
我还是觉得他们那笔 $70m 融资可能和锁定产能有关。
- CW 激光代工厂——就是 Win Semi / 台湾厂商。
我当时很惊讶，这些公司的定价权远低于实际激光芯片产出。所以我继续押 $SIVE、并更偏下游，看来是对的。
因为 CPO 激光的毛利率大概有 55-60% 左右，甚至可能更高。
- 混合键合（唉，抱歉）——被推迟到 2029-2030 年，比如 Auros
- 玻璃核心基板，比如 $LPK（一般）——早期爬坡被推迟了大概半年，来自 Samsung Electro-mechanics 和 SKC Absolics。虽然不算世界末日，但大概率全面爬坡要到 2029 年
- 外延片：产能已经受限，比如 $IQE / Landmark
- 量子点（有意思的那个）：
量子点其实最让我意外的是，在我看了 SK Hynix 的 CPO Nature 论文后，大家对它的关注度有多高。
这可能是出于美国国家安全考虑，想借助 $ALMU 等公司缓解 InP 瓶颈。
我猜 $ALRIB + Veco 未来 1 年里会像 $AIXA 一样，卡住这类量子点设备的关键瓶颈。大多数人根本不理解 Riber 在做什么，我的猜测是这样。
但如果真要投资量子外延工艺，TAM 其实特别特别小。因为它只是外延片的一个子集，而 $IQE 其实是这个领域的领导者。
你更应该去看这些量子点玩家做出来的激光器规格？但材料本身也非常关键。
至于机器人（比如电池、执行器）——我的看法是，量产规模还是太小了。所以我不会把太多资金配置到上游供应商。
这类行业得先有一个像 $CCXI、Unitree 这样的下游龙头（类似 OpenAI/Anthropic）强力拉动，才能带起整个赛道，所以我还是先押人形机器人公司。
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eg. Auros
- Glass Core Substrates like $LPK (ehh) - pushed back like half a year for early ramp from Samsung Electro-mEchanics + SKC Absolics. not the end of the world, but likely full ramp is 2029
- Epiwafers: Capacity constrained already eg. $IQE / Landmark
- Quantum Dot (the fun one):
QD actually surprised me most by how much focus is going into it after I looked at Sk Hynix CPO nature paper.
Probably US national security to work lessen the inP bottleneck with $ALMU and others.
My guess is $ALRIB + Veco gonna be like $AIXA for this QD equipment chokepoint in like 1 year. Most people just dont understand what Riber does is my guess.
But for actually investing in quantum epitaxial process, TAM IS MEGA MEGA SMALL. Cause it's a subset of epiwafers, and $IQE is actually a leader in this space.
You're better off looking at lasers specs these QD players produce? But it the material is super important.
For robotics (eg. battery, actuators) - my opinion is that mass production # is still too small. So I'm not really allocating much funds into upstream suppliers.
It takes a downstream leader like $CCXI, Unitree (like OpenAI/Anthropic) to hard carry the sector first, so I'm sticking with the humanoid players first.
翻译：
脱口而出先简单回顾一下我在跟踪的几个主题：
- MLCC（正在主动上调 AI 服务器 MLCC 价格，消费级 + 通用型也在收紧）。
NAND 周期早期有些相似，但不确定会不会出现同样力度的涨价，因为一些 LTA 已经签了，而且我们也没有像 Sandisk 那样激进的美国玩家？
比如：Holy stone、Taiyo Yuden、Samsung electro-mechanics、Murata 等。
- InP 衬底——严重程度因人而异：
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric。问下游激光供应商比如 $LITE、$AAOI——到 2027 年都没问题（这也是渠道调研好笑的地方）
问外延片供应商比如 Landmark/VPEC——世界要完了
- CW 激光（极度紧张）——很多 CSP 和半导体龙头正在接触所有供应商，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI，去锁定供给，因为 $LITE / $COHR 的产能大多分给了 $NVDA。
而后两家可能还和其他有产能的公司有合作，比如 Furukawa/Sumitomo。
-> 既然 $COHR 说他们只是把激光产能用于内部，而如果我没记错的话，$LITE 之前还从 Coherent 买 EML……所以 Lumentum 可能没有足够空间
所以我猜，$SIVE 业绩里会有很多公司现在可能正在找他们做认证并锁定配额。
我不确定 Sivers 跟 Win 以及他们其他晶圆厂锁定了多少产能（他们说过自己在 2023-2024
- Glass Core Substrates like $LPK (ehh) - pushed back like half a year for early ramp from Samsung Electro-mEchanics + SKC Absolics. not the end of the world, but likely full ramp is 2029
- Epiwafers: Capacity constrained already eg. $IQE / Landmark
- Quantum Dot (the fun one):
QD actually surprised me most by how much focus is going into it after I looked at Sk Hynix CPO nature paper.
Probably US national security to work lessen the inP bottleneck with $ALMU and others.
My guess is $ALRIB + Veco gonna be like $AIXA for this QD equipment chokepoint in like 1 year. Most people just dont understand what Riber does is my guess.
But for actually investing in quantum epitaxial process, TAM IS MEGA MEGA SMALL. Cause it's a subset of epiwafers, and $IQE is actually a leader in this space.
You're better off looking at lasers specs these QD players produce? But it the material is super important.
For robotics (eg. battery, actuators) - my opinion is that mass production # is still too small. So I'm not really allocating much funds into upstream suppliers.
It takes a downstream leader like $CCXI, Unitree (like OpenAI/Anthropic) to hard carry the sector first, so I'm sticking with the humanoid players first.
翻译：
脱口而出先简单回顾一下我在跟踪的几个主题：
- MLCC（正在主动上调 AI 服务器 MLCC 价格，消费级 + 通用型也在收紧）。
NAND 周期早期有些相似，但不确定会不会出现同样力度的涨价，因为一些 LTA 已经签了，而且我们也没有像 Sandisk 那样激进的美国玩家？
比如：Holy stone、Taiyo Yuden、Samsung electro-mechanics、Murata 等。
- InP 衬底——严重程度因人而异：
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric。问下游激光供应商比如 $LITE、$AAOI——到 2027 年都没问题（这也是渠道调研好笑的地方）
问外延片供应商比如 Landmark/VPEC——世界要完了
- CW 激光（极度紧张）——很多 CSP 和半导体龙头正在接触所有供应商，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI，去锁定供给，因为 $LITE / $COHR 的产能大多分给了 $NVDA。
而后两家可能还和其他有产能的公司有合作，比如 Furukawa/Sumitomo。
-> 既然 $COHR 说他们只是把激光产能用于内部，而如果我没记错的话，$LITE 之前还从 Coherent 买 EML……所以 Lumentum 可能没有足够空间
所以我猜，$SIVE 业绩里会有很多公司现在可能正在找他们做认证并锁定配额。
我不确定 Sivers 跟 Win 以及他们其他晶圆厂锁定了多少产能（他们说过自己在 2023-2024
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原文：
off the top of my head, just a recap of the themes I'm tracking:
- MLCC (actively price hiking AI server MLCCs, tightening for consumer + general purpose).
Early NAND cycle similarities, but not sure if we'll see the same type of price hikes since some LTAs were already signed we don't have a US player as aggressive as Sandisk?
Eg. Holy stone, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung electro-mechanics, Murata etc.
- InP Substrates - Extreme severity depending on who you ask:
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric. Ask downstream laser suppliers like $LITE, $AAOI - fine for 2027 (which is the funny part about channel checks)
Ask epiwafer suppliers like Landmark/VPEC - world is gonna end
- CW Laser (extreme severity) - many CSPs + semi leaders approaching all suppliers like $AAOI, $MTSI, to secure supply cause $LITE / $COHR have too much allocation to $NVDA.
And the latter two might have some agreements with other companies with capacity like Furukawa/Sumitomo.
-> Since $COHR said they were just using laser capacity internally and $LITE was buying EML off Coherent before if i remember correctly... So Lumentum not gonna have enough space
So my guess in $SIVE earnings is a lot of companies are probably approaching them now to do qualifications + secure allocation.
I don't know how much Sivers secured with Win and their other fabs (they started they were working with 3 back in like 2023-2024?), but we'll find out more in 3 days.
I still think their $70m fundraise might be related to securing allocations.
- CW Laser Foundries - This is Win Semi / Taiwan players.
I was surprised how little pricing these guys get compared to actual laser die output. So sticking with $SIVE and more downstream was right call for me.
Since gross margins for CPO lasers output was like 55-60% or something high (likely higher over time).
- Hybrid Bonding (rip, sorry) - pushed back to like 2029-2030
off the top of my head, just a recap of the themes I'm tracking:
- MLCC (actively price hiking AI server MLCCs, tightening for consumer + general purpose).
Early NAND cycle similarities, but not sure if we'll see the same type of price hikes since some LTAs were already signed we don't have a US player as aggressive as Sandisk?
Eg. Holy stone, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung electro-mechanics, Murata etc.
- InP Substrates - Extreme severity depending on who you ask:
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric. Ask downstream laser suppliers like $LITE, $AAOI - fine for 2027 (which is the funny part about channel checks)
Ask epiwafer suppliers like Landmark/VPEC - world is gonna end
- CW Laser (extreme severity) - many CSPs + semi leaders approaching all suppliers like $AAOI, $MTSI, to secure supply cause $LITE / $COHR have too much allocation to $NVDA.
And the latter two might have some agreements with other companies with capacity like Furukawa/Sumitomo.
-> Since $COHR said they were just using laser capacity internally and $LITE was buying EML off Coherent before if i remember correctly... So Lumentum not gonna have enough space
So my guess in $SIVE earnings is a lot of companies are probably approaching them now to do qualifications + secure allocation.
I don't know how much Sivers secured with Win and their other fabs (they started they were working with 3 back in like 2023-2024?), but we'll find out more in 3 days.
I still think their $70m fundraise might be related to securing allocations.
- CW Laser Foundries - This is Win Semi / Taiwan players.
I was surprised how little pricing these guys get compared to actual laser die output. So sticking with $SIVE and more downstream was right call for me.
Since gross margins for CPO lasers output was like 55-60% or something high (likely higher over time).
- Hybrid Bonding (rip, sorry) - pushed back to like 2029-2030
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空就不加了，接近2x空单，多拿几天。
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陈哥日常提醒，做好每笔交易仓位管理
陈哥合约群113胜，27负🔥
一对一指导237胜，53负✨
所有交易公开透明会员群历史记录可追溯。
💬 回复 陈哥会员频道
陈哥日常提醒，做好每笔交易仓位管理
陈哥合约群112胜，27负🔥
一对一指导236胜，53负✨
所有交易公开透明会员群历史记录可追溯。
陈哥合约群113胜，27负🔥
一对一指导237胜，53负✨
所有交易公开透明会员群历史记录可追溯。
💬 回复 陈哥会员频道
陈哥日常提醒，做好每笔交易仓位管理
陈哥合约群112胜，27负🔥
一对一指导236胜，53负✨
所有交易公开透明会员群历史记录可追溯。
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