我的关注

分时委托了3个6小时，一个12小时，总仓位3x。
感觉这周是存储和加密的高光时刻，提前埋伏一下。

可惜带单有仓位准备周一开以太的，结果拉盘了没开上，刚开一个多小时就拉盘了。

原文：
The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes.

So looked through H1 sellside models...

From March ESMT reports:
Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2
Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing

By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of:
+105–113% Q/Q blended.

Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected.

So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT.

About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through

If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around.

If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports

1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory.
2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026.
3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs.
4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected.

Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM.

So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income)

Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions)

TLDR:
-> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q
-> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due

to low % of finished product BOM cost.
-> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.

翻译：
我越是研究 ESMT，就越对传统内存主题感到兴奋。

于是查看了 H1 的卖方模型…

来自 3 月 ESMT 报告：
Huanan：DDR3 4Gb ASP 环比 Q2 增长 +50%
Fubon：提到 Q2 DRAM 价格大约上涨 +40%

到 8 月… Huanan 报告 ESMT Q2 ASP 综合增长：
+105–113% 环比。

称 DDR3 价格远好于预期。

因此传统内存定价为 ESMT 带来了更高的经营杠杆。

关于 PSMC 晶圆成本上涨：Huanan 估计制造成本在 2H26 可能上升约 100%，但客户仍高度愿意接受成本转嫁。

如果我们看 7 月净利润大约为 $109M… 远高于早期模型所依据的盈利水平。

如果要给出报告的 TLDR “共识

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最近这段时间，我们会员社区的策略，没有亏过一单

稳

安心睡觉

剩余仓位等明天周一继续博弈。

现价78900附近获利1400点出局百分之60，余仓止损改为开仓价。
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比特币限价做多建议仅供参考

入场：77500

止损：75500

止盈：待定

明天黄金、白银、数字货币同时收月线+周线，盘面波动大概率会放大。

✅黄金、白银：严格按照既定策略执行，逐步止盈，把保护保本止损设置好。

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补仓完成之后，只保留1%仓位，等待周一收线。

月线、周线收官阶段行情容易来回插针，风控优先，一切按策略落地执行。

风险提示：以上仅为交易思路复盘，不构成任何投资建议。

#ZK 这个币日线级别均线已经开始发生改变
四小时级别 关注能否回调0.0084附近 可以考虑买现货，或者等突破四小时盘整三角形 买
目标：0.012-0.135-0.017

这个是现货的一个策略，关注下