原文：
The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes.
So looked through H1 sellside models...
From March ESMT reports:
Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2
Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing
By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of:
+105–113% Q/Q blended.
Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected.
So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT.
About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through
If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around.
If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports
1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory.
2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026.
3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs.
4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected.
Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM.
So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income)
Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions)
TLDR:
-> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q
-> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due
The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes.
So looked through H1 sellside models...
From March ESMT reports:
Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2
Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing
By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of:
+105–113% Q/Q blended.
Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected.
So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT.
About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through
If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around.
If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports
1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory.
2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026.
3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs.
4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected.
Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM.
So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income)
Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions)
TLDR:
-> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q
-> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due
Comments
Unlock