eg. Auros
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
eg. Auros
- Glass Core Substrates like $LPK (ehh) - pushed back like half a year for early ramp from Samsung Electro-mEchanics + SKC Absolics. not the end of the world, but likely full ramp is 2029
- Epiwafers: Capacity constrained already eg. $IQE / Landmark
- Quantum Dot (the fun one):
QD actually surprised me most by how much focus is going into it after I looked at Sk Hynix CPO nature paper.
Probably US national security to work lessen the inP bottleneck with $ALMU and others.
My guess is $ALRIB + Veco gonna be like $AIXA for this QD equipment chokepoint in like 1 year. Most people just dont understand what Riber does is my guess.
But for actually investing in quantum epitaxial process, TAM IS MEGA MEGA SMALL. Cause it's a subset of epiwafers, and $IQE is actually a leader in this space.
You're better off looking at lasers specs these QD players produce? But it the material is super important.
For robotics (eg. battery, actuators) - my opinion is that mass production # is still too small. So I'm not really allocating much funds into upstream suppliers.
It takes a downstream leader like $CCXI, Unitree (like OpenAI/Anthropic) to hard carry the sector first, so I'm sticking with the humanoid players first.
翻译：
脱口而出先简单回顾一下我在跟踪的几个主题：
- MLCC（正在主动上调 AI 服务器 MLCC 价格，消费级 + 通用型也在收紧）。
NAND 周期早期有些相似，但不确定会不会出现同样力度的涨价，因为一些 LTA 已经签了，而且我们也没有像 Sandisk 那样激进的美国玩家？
比如：Holy stone、Taiyo Yuden、Samsung electro-mechanics、Murata 等。
- InP 衬底——严重程度因人而异：
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric。问下游激光供应商比如 $LITE、$AAOI——到 2027 年都没问题（这也是渠道调研好笑的地方）
问外延片供应商比如 Landmark/VPEC——世界要完了
- CW 激光（极度紧张）——很多 CSP 和半导体龙头正在接触所有供应商，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI，去锁定供给，因为 $LITE / $COHR 的产能大多分给了 $NVDA。
而后两家可能还和其他有产能的公司有合作，比如 Furukawa/Sumitomo。
-> 既然 $COHR 说他们只是把激光产能用于内部，而如果我没记错的话，$LITE 之前还从 Coherent 买 EML……所以 Lumentum 可能没有足够空间
所以我猜，$SIVE 业绩里会有很多公司现在可能正在找他们做认证并锁定配额。
我不确定 Sivers 跟 Win 以及他们其他晶圆厂锁定了多少产能（他们说过自己在 2023-2024
- Glass Core Substrates like $LPK (ehh) - pushed back like half a year for early ramp from Samsung Electro-mEchanics + SKC Absolics. not the end of the world, but likely full ramp is 2029
- Epiwafers: Capacity constrained already eg. $IQE / Landmark
- Quantum Dot (the fun one):
QD actually surprised me most by how much focus is going into it after I looked at Sk Hynix CPO nature paper.
Probably US national security to work lessen the inP bottleneck with $ALMU and others.
My guess is $ALRIB + Veco gonna be like $AIXA for this QD equipment chokepoint in like 1 year. Most people just dont understand what Riber does is my guess.
But for actually investing in quantum epitaxial process, TAM IS MEGA MEGA SMALL. Cause it's a subset of epiwafers, and $IQE is actually a leader in this space.
You're better off looking at lasers specs these QD players produce? But it the material is super important.
For robotics (eg. battery, actuators) - my opinion is that mass production # is still too small. So I'm not really allocating much funds into upstream suppliers.
It takes a downstream leader like $CCXI, Unitree (like OpenAI/Anthropic) to hard carry the sector first, so I'm sticking with the humanoid players first.
翻译：
脱口而出先简单回顾一下我在跟踪的几个主题：
- MLCC（正在主动上调 AI 服务器 MLCC 价格，消费级 + 通用型也在收紧）。
NAND 周期早期有些相似，但不确定会不会出现同样力度的涨价，因为一些 LTA 已经签了，而且我们也没有像 Sandisk 那样激进的美国玩家？
比如：Holy stone、Taiyo Yuden、Samsung electro-mechanics、Murata 等。
- InP 衬底——严重程度因人而异：
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric。问下游激光供应商比如 $LITE、$AAOI——到 2027 年都没问题（这也是渠道调研好笑的地方）
问外延片供应商比如 Landmark/VPEC——世界要完了
- CW 激光（极度紧张）——很多 CSP 和半导体龙头正在接触所有供应商，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI，去锁定供给，因为 $LITE / $COHR 的产能大多分给了 $NVDA。
而后两家可能还和其他有产能的公司有合作，比如 Furukawa/Sumitomo。
-> 既然 $COHR 说他们只是把激光产能用于内部，而如果我没记错的话，$LITE 之前还从 Coherent 买 EML……所以 Lumentum 可能没有足够空间
所以我猜，$SIVE 业绩里会有很多公司现在可能正在找他们做认证并锁定配额。
我不确定 Sivers 跟 Win 以及他们其他晶圆厂锁定了多少产能（他们说过自己在 2023-2024
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