原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
off the top of my head, just a recap of the themes I'm tracking:
- MLCC (actively price hiking AI server MLCCs, tightening for consumer + general purpose).
Early NAND cycle similarities, but not sure if we'll see the same type of price hikes since some LTAs were already signed we don't have a US player as aggressive as Sandisk?
Eg. Holy stone, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung electro-mechanics, Murata etc.
- InP Substrates - Extreme severity depending on who you ask:
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric. Ask downstream laser suppliers like $LITE, $AAOI - fine for 2027 (which is the funny part about channel checks)
Ask epiwafer suppliers like Landmark/VPEC - world is gonna end
- CW Laser (extreme severity) - many CSPs + semi leaders approaching all suppliers like $AAOI, $MTSI, to secure supply cause $LITE / $COHR have too much allocation to $NVDA.
And the latter two might have some agreements with other companies with capacity like Furukawa/Sumitomo.
-> Since $COHR said they were just using laser capacity internally and $LITE was buying EML off Coherent before if i remember correctly... So Lumentum not gonna have enough space
So my guess in $SIVE earnings is a lot of companies are probably approaching them now to do qualifications + secure allocation.
I don't know how much Sivers secured with Win and their other fabs (they started they were working with 3 back in like 2023-2024?), but we'll find out more in 3 days.
I still think their $70m fundraise might be related to securing allocations.
- CW Laser Foundries - This is Win Semi / Taiwan players.
I was surprised how little pricing these guys get compared to actual laser die output. So sticking with $SIVE and more downstream was right call for me.
Since gross margins for CPO lasers output was like 55-60% or something high (likely higher over time).
- Hybrid Bonding (rip, sorry) - pushed back to like 2029-2030
off the top of my head, just a recap of the themes I'm tracking:
- MLCC (actively price hiking AI server MLCCs, tightening for consumer + general purpose).
Early NAND cycle similarities, but not sure if we'll see the same type of price hikes since some LTAs were already signed we don't have a US player as aggressive as Sandisk?
Eg. Holy stone, Taiyo Yuden, Samsung electro-mechanics, Murata etc.
- InP Substrates - Extreme severity depending on who you ask:
JX/AXT/Sumitomo Electric. Ask downstream laser suppliers like $LITE, $AAOI - fine for 2027 (which is the funny part about channel checks)
Ask epiwafer suppliers like Landmark/VPEC - world is gonna end
- CW Laser (extreme severity) - many CSPs + semi leaders approaching all suppliers like $AAOI, $MTSI, to secure supply cause $LITE / $COHR have too much allocation to $NVDA.
And the latter two might have some agreements with other companies with capacity like Furukawa/Sumitomo.
-> Since $COHR said they were just using laser capacity internally and $LITE was buying EML off Coherent before if i remember correctly... So Lumentum not gonna have enough space
So my guess in $SIVE earnings is a lot of companies are probably approaching them now to do qualifications + secure allocation.
I don't know how much Sivers secured with Win and their other fabs (they started they were working with 3 back in like 2023-2024?), but we'll find out more in 3 days.
I still think their $70m fundraise might be related to securing allocations.
- CW Laser Foundries - This is Win Semi / Taiwan players.
I was surprised how little pricing these guys get compared to actual laser die output. So sticking with $SIVE and more downstream was right call for me.
Since gross margins for CPO lasers output was like 55-60% or something high (likely higher over time).
- Hybrid Bonding (rip, sorry) - pushed back to like 2029-2030
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