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冲一下不冲了，是止损撤掉下来加次仓算了还是损了下来再重开呢

2026-08-26 06:21

以太币这个位置如果直接下去我们先等趋势线看看什么变化，如果不能下去他反弹的话各位关注2485 考虑再空
如果直接下去了，你先委托接快速反弹的位置 2335，
止损：小时级别有效跌破2300
止盈：2355-2380-2405-2435

2026-08-26 06:20

https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cspa/44970825184385?l=zh-CN&r=SDR9QGU2&source=host_share&uc=web_square_share_link&us=telegram

今天很多山寨出6h底部，纯左侧赔率都很不错

2026-08-26 06:05

🆘 以太币这个顶部模型没下去，收上来了站到均线上方了，不行，这样这里空不动了，平仓出来

2026-08-26 06:02

万美元
4 月：1.453 亿美元
5 月：1.403 亿美元
6 月：1.522 亿美元
7 月：2.128 亿美元

1–7 月整体：
约 8.79 亿美元营收
约 3.60 亿美元净利润

但问题往往在于可持续性：

肯定会有人说“这只是 7 月，看 TTM 才对”，但每个季度旧制程 DRAM 都在继续涨价，而且后面还有更多涨价（所以看 TTM 是不对的），不过每月 1 亿美元以上净利润也许只是异常值，等看其他月份财报再说。

在我看过的 Teamgroup / Apacer / ADATA / Innodisk / Etron 这类公司里，ESMT 似乎是赢家（而且不是单纯在倒库存），它确实具备一定定价权。

在晶圆分配和毛利显著提升的背景下，我觉得它是这几家公司里最强的一个，因为现金会持续流入资产负债表。

而且盈利和短缺是可持续的吗？

- “DDR4 / LPDDR4 的结构性供给缺口到 2028 年及以后仍然明显”——Winbond 2026 年 5 月投资者演示材料（这也支持进一步的连锁传导）

Winbond 过去也把 DDR4/DDR3 描述为存在持续的结构性供给缺口，且“短期内没有解决方案”

- TrendForce 说，无法或不愿锁定 DDR4 的 OEM 正在重新设计/降配到 DDR3，这又会迫使 DDR3 用户转向 DDR2

- 尽管 DDR2 现在很重要，但覆盖和参与者都不多……这点其实挺有意思的。

TLDR：

- 一家市值 25 亿美元的公司，资产 9.43 亿美元，净现金约 3.95 亿美元
- 7 月每月净利润 1.1 亿美元，年化 7 月 P/E 仅 1.9x
- 即便在熊市情景下，若盈利不可持续、月净利润回落到 5,500 万美元，P/E 也只有 3.8x
- Winbond 退出 DDR2 市场有利于业绩
- 和其他存储股一样，熊市担忧都在于盈利能否持续，但行业预计 2027 年供给还会进一步收紧。

*披露：我有持仓，非投资建议。

希望大家觉得有意思，我会继续跟踪 DDR4 / DDR3 / DDR2 的趋势，看后续怎么演化。

2026-08-26 06:02

原文：
Thoughts on this 1.9x P/E memory company: (annualized off recent ER)

Spent a lot of time going through the memory stack for new $SNDK style names because cascading structural shortages from HBM/DDR5 into DDR4/DDR3/DDR2.

ESMT at $2.5B MC caught my interest.

Here's a note from my high-level thoughts/research on this name:

July's (1 month) earnings were:
- $212.8M revenue / $109.5M (net income, +- few M depending on FX)

Annualized that's: $1.314B net income/year off a $2.5B MC, so 1.9x July runrate P/E.

- Cash on hand: $455.7M (~$395.9M net cash)
- $943.5M assets
- $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables
- $596.0M book equity

They ~$359.6M net income in the first seven months of 2026, and it's accelerated to ~$109.5M a month net income.

What's even more interesting is Winbond is gradually withdrawing from DDR2 (June Trendforce report), which should give increased leverage to ESMT H2 (with price forecasts of DDR2 being 35-40% Q3)

What's not disclosed is wafer allocations from PSMC and possible risk is margin decrease due to upstream wafer hikes.

(You can think of an analogy like Kioxia: PSMC, ESMT: Sandisk, but without ownership)

PSMC did raise DRAM wafer-start prices about 45% (started in July, maybe shows up Nov/Dec) and ESMT said H2 margins could slip due to wafers having a higher cost.

So wanted to look at the bear case, and do some speculative napkin math wafer calculations based on their "2026 wafer capacity is roughly unchanged from 2025 and only satisfies ~60–70% of customer demand" claims

Napkin math:

ESMT did ~NT$13.5B revenue in 2024 at near 0 profitability, so monthly COGS was ~$30M, of which wafers might be $20M.

A 45% hike on that base gets you somewhere around ~$9M/month headwind.

For a harsher stress test, using Q2's ~31.3% COGS/revenue ratio as a proxy for July, July's $212.8M rev would imply roughly $66.6M of monthly COGS.

If

2026-08-26 06:02

100% of that were exposed to the +45% DRAM wafer repricing: would imply roughly a $30M/month pretax headwind

-> net income would fall to $85M/month, or about 2.45× annualized P/E (which is still pretty impressive)

Fun thing is July's net income report was only because TWSE forced a supplemental disclosure after abnormal trading.

So, with Winbond winding down their segments, and DRAM est. going up Q/Q, signals point to ESMT maintaining similar profitability levels. There's DDR3 and others as main exposure, but DDR4 hikes trickles down the stack.

Revenue growth looks like:

Feb 2026: $65.6M
March: $95.1M
April: $145.3M
May: $140.3M
June: $152.2M
July: $212.8M

Jan–July as a whole:
~$879M revenue
~$360M net income

But the issue most of the times is durability:

There's going to be folks saying "oh it's just July, look at TTM" but each quarter legacy DRAM keeps getting hiked, and there's further hikes ahead (so TTM is the wrong way to go), but maybe $100m+ net income a month is an anomaly, we'll see what other earnings are.

Out of the Teamgroup/Apacer/ADATA/Innodisk/Etron type names I looked at that actually can maintain pricing power as well (and not just flipping inventory).

Felt like ESMT was the winner of the bunch (where cash just keeps flowing into balance sheet) given wafer allocations and an substantial increase in gross profit.

And durable are earnings + the shortage?

- “DDR4 / LPDDR4 structural supply gap remains evident through 2028 and onward" Winbond's May 2026 investor presentation (which supports further cascading)

Winbond had characterized DDR4/DDR3 as having ongoing structural supply gaps with "no near-term resolution"

- TrendForce says OEMs unable or unwilling to secure DDR4 are redesigning/down-specing into DDR3, which then forces DDR3 users toward DDR2

- There's not much coverage or players in DDR2 despite its importance now... which is

2026-08-26 06:02

appreciated.

TLDR:

- $2.5B company with $943M in assets, ~$395M net cash
- $110M net income a month in July, 1.9x annualized July P/E
- Even in a bear case where earnings are unsustainable, reverting monthly net income back to $55m, would give it a 3.8x P/E.
- Winbond withdrawing from DDR2 markets helps earnings
- Same bear case like every other memory if earnings can persist, but industry sees further tightened supply in 2027.

*disclosure, have positions, NFA, not an investment recommendation.

Hope others find this interesting, I'll be tracking DDR4/DDR3/DDR2 trends to see how this plays out.

翻译：
对这家 1.9x P/E 的存储公司有什么看法：（按最近一次财报年化）

我花了很多时间梳理存储链条，想找新的 $SNDK 这类标的，因为 HBM/DDR5 向下传导，正引发 DDR4/DDR3/DDR2 的连锁结构性短缺。

ESMT，市值 25 亿美元，引起了我的兴趣。

下面是我对这个标的一些高层想法/研究笔记：

7 月（1 个月）的业绩为：
- 营收 2.128 亿美元 / 净利润 1.095 亿美元（因汇率有几百万美元浮动）

按年化算，相当于 12.14 亿美元净利润，对应 25 亿美元市值，也就是 7 月运行率 P/E 只有 1.9x。

- 现金：4.557 亿美元（净现金约 3.959 亿美元）
- 资产：9.435 亿美元
- 存货：2.496 亿美元，应收账款：1.463 亿美元
- 账面股东权益：5.96 亿美元

2026 年前七个月他们大约赚了 3.596 亿美元净利润，而且已经加速到每月约 1.095 亿美元净利润。

更有意思的是，Winbond 正在逐步退出 DDR2（6 月 TrendForce 报告），这应该会进一步增强 ESMT 下半年的议价能力（DDR2 价格预测在 Q3 还有 35-40% 上涨空间）

未披露的是来自 PSMC 的晶圆分配情况，潜在风险是上游晶圆涨价导致毛利率下滑。

（可以把它理解成一个类比：PSMC 对应 Kioxia，ESMT 对应 Sandisk，但没有股权关系）

PSMC 已经把 DRAM 晶圆起始价上调了约 45%（7 月开始，可能在 11 月/12 月体现出来），而 ESMT 也提到，由于晶圆成本更高，下半年毛利率可能会回落。

所以我也想看一下熊市情景，并基于他们“2026 年晶圆产能大致与 2025 年持平，且只能满足约 60–70% 客户需求”的说法，做一些很粗略的晶圆测算。

粗算如下：

ESMT 2024 年营收大约为 135 亿新台币，盈利几乎为零，因此月度 COGS 约 3,000 万美元，其中晶圆可能占 2,000 万美元。

在这个基础上上调 45%，大约会带来每月 900 万美元左右的压力。

更严格一点测试，如果用 Q2 约 31.3% 的 COGS/营收比作为 7 月的参考，7 月 2.128 亿美元营收意味着月度 COGS 大约 6,660 万美元。

如果这部分 100% 都暴露在 +45% 的 DRAM 晶圆重定价下：意味着每月税前压力大约 3,000 万美元

-> 净利润会降到每月 8,500 万美元，年化 P/E 约 2.45x（依然相当夸张）

有意思的是，7 月净利润披露是因为 TWSE 在异常交易后强制要求补充公告。

所以，随着 Winbond 收缩相关业务，加上 DRAM 估值环比上升，信号都指向 ESMT 还能维持相近的盈利水平。它主要暴露在 DDR3 等品类上，但 DDR4 的涨价也会向下传导到整个链条。

营收增长看起来像这样：

2026 年 2 月：6,560 万美元
3 月：9,510