原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Thoughts on this 1.9x P/E memory company: (annualized off recent ER)
Spent a lot of time going through the memory stack for new $SNDK style names because cascading structural shortages from HBM/DDR5 into DDR4/DDR3/DDR2.
ESMT at $2.5B MC caught my interest.
Here's a note from my high-level thoughts/research on this name:
July's (1 month) earnings were:
- $212.8M revenue / $109.5M (net income, +- few M depending on FX)
Annualized that's: $1.314B net income/year off a $2.5B MC, so 1.9x July runrate P/E.
- Cash on hand: $455.7M (~$395.9M net cash)
- $943.5M assets
- $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables
- $596.0M book equity
They ~$359.6M net income in the first seven months of 2026, and it's accelerated to ~$109.5M a month net income.
What's even more interesting is Winbond is gradually withdrawing from DDR2 (June Trendforce report), which should give increased leverage to ESMT H2 (with price forecasts of DDR2 being 35-40% Q3)
What's not disclosed is wafer allocations from PSMC and possible risk is margin decrease due to upstream wafer hikes.
(You can think of an analogy like Kioxia: PSMC, ESMT: Sandisk, but without ownership)
PSMC did raise DRAM wafer-start prices about 45% (started in July, maybe shows up Nov/Dec) and ESMT said H2 margins could slip due to wafers having a higher cost.
So wanted to look at the bear case, and do some speculative napkin math wafer calculations based on their "2026 wafer capacity is roughly unchanged from 2025 and only satisfies ~60–70% of customer demand" claims
Napkin math:
ESMT did ~NT$13.5B revenue in 2024 at near 0 profitability, so monthly COGS was ~$30M, of which wafers might be $20M.
A 45% hike on that base gets you somewhere around ~$9M/month headwind.
For a harsher stress test, using Q2's ~31.3% COGS/revenue ratio as a proxy for July, July's $212.8M rev would imply roughly $66.6M of monthly COGS.
If
Thoughts on this 1.9x P/E memory company: (annualized off recent ER)
Spent a lot of time going through the memory stack for new $SNDK style names because cascading structural shortages from HBM/DDR5 into DDR4/DDR3/DDR2.
ESMT at $2.5B MC caught my interest.
Here's a note from my high-level thoughts/research on this name:
July's (1 month) earnings were:
- $212.8M revenue / $109.5M (net income, +- few M depending on FX)
Annualized that's: $1.314B net income/year off a $2.5B MC, so 1.9x July runrate P/E.
- Cash on hand: $455.7M (~$395.9M net cash)
- $943.5M assets
- $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables
- $596.0M book equity
They ~$359.6M net income in the first seven months of 2026, and it's accelerated to ~$109.5M a month net income.
What's even more interesting is Winbond is gradually withdrawing from DDR2 (June Trendforce report), which should give increased leverage to ESMT H2 (with price forecasts of DDR2 being 35-40% Q3)
What's not disclosed is wafer allocations from PSMC and possible risk is margin decrease due to upstream wafer hikes.
(You can think of an analogy like Kioxia: PSMC, ESMT: Sandisk, but without ownership)
PSMC did raise DRAM wafer-start prices about 45% (started in July, maybe shows up Nov/Dec) and ESMT said H2 margins could slip due to wafers having a higher cost.
So wanted to look at the bear case, and do some speculative napkin math wafer calculations based on their "2026 wafer capacity is roughly unchanged from 2025 and only satisfies ~60–70% of customer demand" claims
Napkin math:
ESMT did ~NT$13.5B revenue in 2024 at near 0 profitability, so monthly COGS was ~$30M, of which wafers might be $20M.
A 45% hike on that base gets you somewhere around ~$9M/month headwind.
For a harsher stress test, using Q2's ~31.3% COGS/revenue ratio as a proxy for July, July's $212.8M rev would imply roughly $66.6M of monthly COGS.
If
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