100% of that were exposed to the +45% DRAM wafer repricing: would imply roughly a $30M/month pretax headwind
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
100% of that were exposed to the +45% DRAM wafer repricing: would imply roughly a $30M/month pretax headwind
-> net income would fall to $85M/month, or about 2.45× annualized P/E (which is still pretty impressive)
Fun thing is July's net income report was only because TWSE forced a supplemental disclosure after abnormal trading.
So, with Winbond winding down their segments, and DRAM est. going up Q/Q, signals point to ESMT maintaining similar profitability levels. There's DDR3 and others as main exposure, but DDR4 hikes trickles down the stack.
Revenue growth looks like:
Feb 2026: $65.6M
March: $95.1M
April: $145.3M
May: $140.3M
June: $152.2M
July: $212.8M
Jan–July as a whole:
~$879M revenue
~$360M net income
But the issue most of the times is durability:
There's going to be folks saying "oh it's just July, look at TTM" but each quarter legacy DRAM keeps getting hiked, and there's further hikes ahead (so TTM is the wrong way to go), but maybe $100m+ net income a month is an anomaly, we'll see what other earnings are.
Out of the Teamgroup/Apacer/ADATA/Innodisk/Etron type names I looked at that actually can maintain pricing power as well (and not just flipping inventory).
Felt like ESMT was the winner of the bunch (where cash just keeps flowing into balance sheet) given wafer allocations and an substantial increase in gross profit.
And durable are earnings + the shortage?
- “DDR4 / LPDDR4 structural supply gap remains evident through 2028 and onward" Winbond's May 2026 investor presentation (which supports further cascading)
Winbond had characterized DDR4/DDR3 as having ongoing structural supply gaps with "no near-term resolution"
- TrendForce says OEMs unable or unwilling to secure DDR4 are redesigning/down-specing into DDR3, which then forces DDR3 users toward DDR2
- There's not much coverage or players in DDR2 despite its importance now... which is
-> net income would fall to $85M/month, or about 2.45× annualized P/E (which is still pretty impressive)
Fun thing is July's net income report was only because TWSE forced a supplemental disclosure after abnormal trading.
So, with Winbond winding down their segments, and DRAM est. going up Q/Q, signals point to ESMT maintaining similar profitability levels. There's DDR3 and others as main exposure, but DDR4 hikes trickles down the stack.
Revenue growth looks like:
Feb 2026: $65.6M
March: $95.1M
April: $145.3M
May: $140.3M
June: $152.2M
July: $212.8M
Jan–July as a whole:
~$879M revenue
~$360M net income
But the issue most of the times is durability:
There's going to be folks saying "oh it's just July, look at TTM" but each quarter legacy DRAM keeps getting hiked, and there's further hikes ahead (so TTM is the wrong way to go), but maybe $100m+ net income a month is an anomaly, we'll see what other earnings are.
Out of the Teamgroup/Apacer/ADATA/Innodisk/Etron type names I looked at that actually can maintain pricing power as well (and not just flipping inventory).
Felt like ESMT was the winner of the bunch (where cash just keeps flowing into balance sheet) given wafer allocations and an substantial increase in gross profit.
And durable are earnings + the shortage?
- “DDR4 / LPDDR4 structural supply gap remains evident through 2028 and onward" Winbond's May 2026 investor presentation (which supports further cascading)
Winbond had characterized DDR4/DDR3 as having ongoing structural supply gaps with "no near-term resolution"
- TrendForce says OEMs unable or unwilling to secure DDR4 are redesigning/down-specing into DDR3, which then forces DDR3 users toward DDR2
- There's not much coverage or players in DDR2 despite its importance now... which is
Could not load this section.