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我的关注

2026-08-10 02:04

原文：
Just some near term events:

- OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates.

This should be a catalyst for certain optical players.

- Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more.

- Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month.

Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI.

Fun week ahead.

翻译：
一些近期事件：

- 明天是OCP APAC（Ayar，Lightmatter，$AMD，$NVDA），您的CPO玩家将发布公告/更新。
这应该是某些光学玩家的催化剂。

- 盈利周：$ASTS，$RKLB今日发布（太空），$LITE周二发布（光子学），$NBIS本周中旬发布（Neocloud），还有更多。

- Unitree IPO订阅今日开放，预计本月上市。
如果开局良好，应该是人形机器人+机器人领域的潜在催化剂，例如$CCXI。

前方将是一个有趣的周。 🤖💻

2026-08-09 04:12

原文：
All right chat, it’s that time of the month again.

What’s your #1 highest conviction stock and why?

I actually learn a lot from reading these, so share some cool ideas.

翻译：
好了，聊天时间又来了。

你这个月最有信心的股票是哪一只，为什么？

我从这些讨论中学到了很多东西，所以分享一些有趣的想法吧。

2026-08-09 00:24

原文：
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections.

Given recent industry earnings:

> $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck).

> $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines)

> US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink)

> AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers.

The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too.

Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.

翻译：
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 每年中位数容量收入预测约为 4.27 亿美元的好时机。

考虑到最近的行业盈利能力：

> $AAOI 提到收发器的需求失衡为 +20-40%（激光器是瓶颈）。

> $MTSI 表示许多“客户由于一般的磷化铟 DFB 激光器供应短缺而急切地来找我们”（在其他产品线中）。

> 美国提议禁止新型中国光学收发器（Innolight/Eoptolink）。

> AOI 由于激光器被分配给收发器而未能在第一代 CPO 部署中发挥重要作用。

可以看出，可能可以将相同的容量需求吸收模型应用于 $AAOI，也可以应用于其他激光器玩家，如 Sivers。

考虑到磷化铟 CW DFB 容量的普遍短缺和需求失衡。

2026-08-08 18:28

原文：
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS:

First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through:

> $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings

> $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings

> $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings.

Now, time to look at Nebius:

-> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power.
-> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride
-> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter.

Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge?

-> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good.

Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU

翻译：
今天我要写一个周末指南，教你如何对 $NBIS 进行尽职调查（DD）：

首先，你需要查看超大规模云计算公司的财报，以了解人工智能云计算的趋势：

> $GOOGL：报告人工智能云计算需求、订单和利润率增加的创纪录财报

> $AMZN：报告人工智能云计算需求、订单和利润率增加的创纪录财报

> $META：报告可用容量的价格高于预期的财报

现在，来看看 Nebius：

-> $NBIS：预计到第四季度收入将增长到 700-900 亿美元，利润率增长，预计签订 4GW 以上的电力合同
-> 预计 Uber/Waymo 将分拆，更加关注 Avride
-> 预计 Clickhouse 每季度都在迅速增长

看起来很糟糕！但是接下来，你需要一个对冲策略？

-> 哇！一位 $NIKE 品牌高管，在股票过去 5 年下跌 75% 后，去了 $LULU 去拯救该品牌？Lululemon 看起来很不错

结论：做空 Nebius，买入 $LULU

2026-08-08 17:53

原文：
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung.

As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck.

This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again.

The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there.

For photonics:

> We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop.

> We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls.

Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations.

Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35...

But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections)

For Memory:

I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago.

Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world.

There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme.

But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural.

And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year.

People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness).

I can't tell others what to to do:

But $AAOI

2026-08-08 17:53

at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company.

Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company.

Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.

翻译：
是的，我仍然看好内存市场，就像 $MU / 三星一样。

正如我之前所说，市场往往从一个瓶颈转移到另一个瓶颈。

这周看起来，光子学领域的 $AXTI 到 $LITE 又成为了焦点。

问题是... 最主要变化的只是股票价格，伴随着一些叙述和更新的零星出现。

对于光子学：

> 我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器在7月份的下跌期间已经完全售罄，未来2年都没有货了。

> 我们从 $AAOI 上季度的财报电话会议中就知道了需求失衡的问题。

7月份的崩盘期间，除了价格下跌和清仓外，根本面并没有恶化。

然而，很多人在 $AAOI 跌到 $75 时称其为“骗局”，或者在 $AXTI 跌到 $35 时称其为“骗局”...

但当价格涨到 $140 或 $80 时，他们又变得乐观起来，尽管转发器/InP基板的瓶颈并没有改变，甚至可能变得更糟糕了... （例如，美国禁止新中国光学收发器的草案，需求预测的扩大）

对于内存市场：

我看到很多散户放弃了，但这些人在 $MU 签署了16个SCA并给出了异常预测的前景一个月 ago 时曾经非常看好。

或者，当时三星拥有世界上最高的营业利润时，他们也非常高兴。

这里有一些更新，例如Rubin Ultra的内存优化（Nvidia每一代都在努力实现），价格不再被抬高到远远超出预期的极端水平。

但相对于当前价格，营业收入与内存成本的比率简直是荒谬的，尤其是内存成为结构性短缺的情况下。

明年，需求失衡的情况可能会更加严重。

人们往往在一个行业下跌时放弃并跟随叙述（例如，伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或根本面情况并没有真正改变多少（例如，$SPCX Elon的财报电话会议重申内存紧张的情况）。

我不能告诉别人该怎么做：

但 $AAOI 在 $140 和 $AAOI 在 $75 是同一家公司。

三星在 $1.5T 的市值和三星在 $980B 的市值是同一家公司。

只是估值和叙述（往往是噪音）发生了变化，市场从一个行业转移到另一个行业。

2026-08-08 06:20

原文：
I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names:

Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below:

1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash>

2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market >

3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues >

4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash>

5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year>

6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!>

in a new headline, and it's ready to go!

翻译：
我已经绘制了整个华尔街熊市的AI相关策略：

让你喜欢的机构/媒体在下面插入其中一个名字：

1. < ______ [GPU、收发器、MLCC、内存...] 是一种即将崩溃的商品>

2. < ______ [长鑫存储、长鑫存储、东山...] 来自中国将会淹没市场 >

3. < ______ [美光、英伟达、 ...] 来自不可核实的渠道正在面临问题 >

4. < ______ [韩国综合股价指数、西弗斯、 ...] 就像 ____ [2007、2021] 崩溃一样的泡沫>

5. <____ [1、2、3、 ...] 这一年意外的加息>

6. < _____ [谷歌、英伟达、Deepseek ...] 优化消除了对此的需求！>

在一个新的头条新闻中，它已经准备就绪！ 📰💻

2026-08-07 20:23

原文：
There we go, White House finally invests in more breath in critical minerals/materials. Amazing policy move, as a TLDR:

- $WWR receives $25M (graphite)
- $SRL (ASX) receives $400M (Scandium)
- $FEAM receives $8M (Boron)
- $HREE receives $4.8M (magnet rare earths)

out of the public companies.

With more private investments from $150 million into Niron Magnetics or $85 million into Standard Bauxite.

It's literally spare change to the US gov, for ENORMOUS amount of downstream applications.

More should be done with funding amounts to accelerate development and derisk supply chains (don't own any of the above, just support the policy move), but great announcement.

翻译：
终于，白宫在关键矿物/材料上进行了更多投资。令人惊讶的政策举动，简而言之：

- $WWR 获得 2500 万美元（石墨）
- $SRL (ASX) 获得 4 亿美元（钪）
- $FEAM 获得 800 万美元（硼）
- $HREE 获得 480 万美元（磁性稀土）

这些是上市公司获得的资金。

此外，还有大量私人投资，例如 1.5 亿美元投资于 Niron Magnetics 或 8500 万美元投资于 Standard Bauxite。

对于美国政府来说，这只是九牛一毛，但却能带来大量的下游应用。

应该进一步增加资金以加速发展和降低供应链风险（我并不持有以上任何公司的股份，只是支持这一政策举动），但这是一个伟大的公告。

2026-08-07 12:55

原文：
Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER:

- They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI.

- For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth.

For reference:
Q2: $191.9M
Q3: ~$255M-$290M
Q4: $500M+
By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate

Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.

翻译：
一些来自 $AAOI 收益报告的简要要点：

- 他们还提到了DSP和TIA的瓶颈，这对像$MXL、$SMTC和$MTSI这样的公司来说是一个积极的行业信号。

- 至于收入增长，他们预计第四季度收入将超过5亿美元，这是一个荒谬的增长。

参考数据：
Q2：1.919亿美元
Q3：约2.55亿-2.9亿美元
Q4：5亿美元以上
到2027年中期：约每季度141亿美元的收入增长率

总是对这些光学公司的收入增长速度感到印象深刻。

2026-08-07 08:51

原文：
I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about.

$AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows.

eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August".

They might have missed that they believed $AMD would be $AAOI's first CPO customer... since AAOI said they would be missing from first-gen CPO (maybe future gen?)

But lot of their talking points about China CPO laser positioning (eg. 2-3 years behind) got corroborated word-for-word from AAOI earnings today.

翻译：
我通常会取笑卖方，但罗斯布拉特（Rosenblatt）对光学领域的渠道检查做得非常好，他们的报告是少数我喜欢讨论的报告之一。

$AAOI、$LITE、$SIVE，激光派对已经开始在预计的时间窗口内恢复。

例如，上个月： “多个空头卖家告诉他们，他们可能会在7月下旬和8月初关闭他们的头寸...”

他们可能忽略了他们相信$AMD将成为$AAOI的第一个CPO客户... 因为AAOI说他们将缺席第一代CPO（也许是未来几代？）

但他们关于中国CPO激光定位的很多观点（例如，落后2-3年）在今天的AAOI财报中得到了逐字证实。

2026-08-07 08:28

原文：
Unitree, China's humanoid leader, is set to IPO this month at a $9B valuation! (~$6.2B originally per March filing).

Derivative markets are pricing open at an implied $36.04B MC, roughly ~4X listing price.

$CCXI / Agility Robotics, the first US publicly listed pure play humanoid leader, is also going public later in Q4, at a ~$2.5B pre-money valuation.

It will be interesting to see how markets price in America vs. Chinese Humanoid leaders.

翻译：
Unitree，中国的仿人机器人领导者，本月即将以900亿美元的估值上市！（根据3月份的文件，最初估值为620亿美元）。

衍生品市场预计以36.04亿美元的市值开盘，大约是发行价的4倍。

$CCXI / Agility Robotics，美国首家公开上市的纯粹仿人机器人领导者，预计将在第四季度晚些时候以250亿美元的预估值上市。

看看美国和中国的仿人机器人领导者如何定价将会很有趣。

2026-08-07 08:27

原文：
Unitree, China's humanoid leader, is set to IPO this month at a $9B valuation! (~$6.2B originally per March filing).

Derivative markets are pricing open at an implied $36.04B MC, roughly ~4X listing price.

$CCXI / Agility Robotics, the first US pure-play humanoid company, is also going public later in Q4, at a ~$2.5B pre-money valuation.

It will be interesting to see how markets price in America vs. Chinese Humanoid leaders.

翻译：
Unitree，中国人形机器人领域的领跑者，本月即将以900亿美元的估值上市（根据3月份的文件，最初估值为620亿美元）。

衍生品市场预计上市时的市值为3604亿美元，大约是发行价的4倍。

$CCXI / Agility Robotics，美国首家纯粹的人形机器人公司，预计将在第四季度晚些时候以250亿美元的预估值上市。

有趣的是，看看美国和中国的人形机器人领域领跑者如何在市场上定价。

2026-08-07 07:27

原文：
Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m.

Just as a recap from $POET / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer.

So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement".

And just for reference, $POET has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines).

I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet).

But TLDR:
> Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers.
> nice read through upstream on $POET (derisking) / $SIVE.
> Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.

翻译：
今天早些时候，光互联公司Lumilens以550亿美元的估值“脱离隐身状态”，此前他们刚刚完成了7亿美元的融资。

回顾一下我之前在$POET / $SIVE的LinkedIn OSINT映射中提到的内容，Lumilens曾为一家排名前三的超大规模客户提供服务。

一个月后，我们得到了确认，并且得知Lumilens拥有“数十亿美元的客户协议”。

为了参考，$POET已经与Lumilens（5,000万美元的采购订单，最高可达5亿美元）以及$SIVE（取决于产品线）签订了合同。

在读到这则新闻后，我又小规模地买入了$POET的股份，因为这终于让他们看到了非常有前途的超大规模供应商（除了Poet自己的巨大资产负债表）。

总的来说：
> Lumilens的估值与Lightmatter/Ayar相似，甚至更高，超出了市场的预期，拥有超大规模客户。
> 对$POET（降低风险）/ $SIVE的上游影响很好。
> 对整个光学行业来说很好，看着一家公司在2年内估值达到55亿美元。

2026-08-07 05:48

原文：
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough.

1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments.

"We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first"

So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR.

And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers...

Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ...

I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website).

So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)?

Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity.

2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers.

AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity.

"We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business"

3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers.

I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks.

But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on

2026-08-07 05:48

defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint.

TLDR:

- High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers.

- $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE)

- China years behind in CPO lasers.

翻译：
哇，$AAOI 的财报中有很多有价值的信息，对于 $SIVE 和其他激光器制造商来说是一个很好的参考。

1. $AAOI 不会大量参与 CPO 第一代部署。

“我们无法生产足够的 CPO 激光器来满足当前的第一代部署，因为我们的生产能力不够。我们必须优先考虑为自己的收发器生产激光器。”

因此，第一代 CPO 激光器部署可能会进一步集中在像 $SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO 和 $COHR 这样的西方公司身上。

如果 $AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，那么独立的 CPO CW 激光器生产能力就变得更加有价值了……

还记得 Trendforce 提到 $AMD 签署了 CW 长期协议吗？$COHR 和 $LITE 已经与 $NVDA 签署了协议……

我以为会是 $AAOI，但他们可能已经退出了竞争。$MTSI 在早期 CPO 参与方面也不太重要（例如，在财报中没有提到，除了 NPO，并且从 Ayar 网站上删除）。

所以，我想知道像 $AMD 这样的公司会选择谁来生产 Helios（例如 Sivers + Ayar 现在更有可能）？

顺便说一下，这并不意味着 $AAOI 的表现不佳，因为他们的光收发器业务需求太大。只是对现有的少数几个有生产能力的 CPO 激光器制造商更加看好。

2. InP 激光器/光收发器的需求失衡和瓶颈。

$AAOI 的 CEO 表示，客户需求比扩建后的生产能力高出 20%-40%。

“我们每周都从几个大客户那里收到这样的需求。激光器是当前收发器业务的最大瓶颈。”

3. 中国距离拥有 CPO DWDM 规范激光器还有几年。

我之前在查看 CPO 竞争时已经提到过这一点。

但 $AAOI 确认中国“至少需要两三年甚至更长时间才能拥有 CPO 激光器”，这是对西方激光器在 CPO 激光器瓶颈中的防御地位的重要支持。

总结：

- CW 激光器和光收发器的需求失衡很严重。

- $AAOI 由于生产能力限制不会参与第一代 CPO 部署（这并不意味着 $AAOI 的表现不佳，因为他们的光收发器业务需求太大，但对于像 $SIVE 这样的少数独立生产商来说是一个好消息）。

- 中国在 CPO 激光器方面落后了几年。

2026-08-07 04:06

原文：
I'll be honest I'm not familiar with polysilicon or solar supply chains but I'm reading into it now.

There's another claim around the same time that Musk has finalized equipment contracts for 400,000 metric tons of polysilicon capacity for $TSLA and $SPCX as well, which came about the same time.

"supplied by the Shanghai subsidiary of Japan's Morisimatsu, Chemical Complete Equipment,"

But TLDR: U.S. administration is preparing tariffs and price floors covering imported polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules

I'm just looking at potential beneficaries like Wacker Chemie ( $WCH ) that operates US polysilicon factories. Or $GSM which is upstream of polysilicon (330,000 tons of silicon metal capacity apparently).

But still doing research

翻译：
我要坦白，我不熟悉多晶硅或太阳能供应链，但我正在研究它。

大约在同一时间，出现了另一个说法，马斯克已经为特斯拉（$TSLA）和$SPCX最终确定了40万公吨多晶硅设备合同，这也发生在同一时间。
“由日本森岛的上海子公司——化学设备公司提供”

但是简而言之：美国政府正在准备对进口的多晶硅、晶片、电池和模块征收关税和设置最低价格

我正在寻找潜在的受益者，如在美国经营多晶硅工厂的沃克化学公司（$WCH）。或者是$GSM，它是多晶硅的上游企业（显然拥有33万吨的金属硅生产能力）。

但仍在继续研究 📊💡
https://t.co/XXXX
@elonmusk #太阳能 #多晶硅 #特斯拉

2026-08-06 23:42

原文：
$MTSI earnings transcript:

"Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers"

Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us".

CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.

翻译：
$MTSI 盈利转录：

“由于一般的磷化铟分布反馈激光器供应短缺，客户正在迫切地来找我们”

强调“迫切”，连续波“DFB激光器”，“来找我们”。

像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的CW DFB厂商应该会很高兴听到关于这种激光器瓶颈的验证。

2026-08-06 22:55

$LITE、$SIVE / $JBL 和其他公司的读数也很好。

- “在接下来的两三年内，尤其是需求如此之大。好吧？即使是 AI、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等公司的综合体，也很难在接下来的几年内满足客户需求”

更多的光学行业需求验证。

- CPO 时间表： “如果你在谈论真正的大量制造商 [用于 CPO 市场]，我会说更像是在明年第三季度晚些时候”并且“我们已经与至少五个客户密切合作”

如果你关心当前的盈利（我不是很关心）

收入：1.91 亿美元 vs 1.9 亿美元
EPS：0.06 美元 vs 0.02 美元

简而言之：整个激光器和光学行业的需求非常旺盛。支持 Lumentum CEO 的说法，即激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重。

2027 年产能增长按计划进行。为了确定拐点时期，时间表将在明年初，如之前的盈利电话中所述。

AAOI 已经拥有客户。限制是制造足够的激光器和收发器。

2026-08-06 22:55

原文：
Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings:

- Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks

(helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines)

- Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US

(reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned)

- Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027

(timeline FYI in terms of further ramp)

- Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u

(this is the ramp i want to see)

- "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028

(need some time to model this into revenue)

- "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry"

(vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages)

- We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers

(thesis validation on CPO sector)

- "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%"

- "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents"

I need to double check if the ATM finished or not

- "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now"

Demand > Supply validation.

- "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the

2026-08-06 22:55

customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher."

Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing.

- "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years"

More optical sector demand validation.

- CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer"

If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely)

Revenue: $191M vs. $190m
EPS: $.06 vs. $.02

TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages.

2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call.

AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.

翻译：
以下是 $AAOI 盈利的简要笔记：

- 预计在接下来的几周内，超大规模客户将完全认证 1.6T 产品

（有助于收入增长 #2，时间表）

- 继续相信 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心收发器生产能力

（在竞争对手可能被禁的同时重申雄心壮志）

- 预计 InP 能力设施将在 2027 年初上线

（时间表供参考，以便进一步增长）

- 总产能即将达到每月 200,000 个，年底 650,000 个每月的 800g/1.6t 产能，2027 年年底 930,000 个

（这是我想要看到的增长）

- “增加我们外部光源或 ELSFP 的制造能力，这是用于 CPO 的”。我们预计今年晚些时候和 2027 年将生产量提高，最终在 2028 年达到每月 40 万件

（需要一些时间来将其纳入收入模型）

- “如我们之前所提到的，我们已经内部制造激光器多年了。这使我们能够避免一些影响行业其他公司的短缺”

（在 CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合优势）

- 我们相信，未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器的需求增加

（验证 CPO 行业的投资论点）

- “我们的长期目标是将非 GAAP 毛利率恢复到大约 40%”

- “我们在第二季度末拥有 5.088 亿美元的总现金等价物”

我需要再次核实 ATM 是否已经完成

- “我们的收入交付能力，特别是 800G 产品，目前受到生产能力的限制”“如果我们能够生产更多，我们现在就可以交付更多”

验证了需求大于供给。

- “大部分增加的产能将在美国。但是，就像我一直强调的那样，这仍然不足以满足客户需求。客户需求高出 20%-40%。”

整个行业的光子学需求验证非常惊人，对

🔄

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