的订单积压中已经看到了这种趋势，但很高兴看到它出现在 Weebius 的财报中。
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原文：
$AEHR receives another $22M follow on order for AI processor wafer level burn in systems.
By their lead AI processor company.
It’s cool to see this tiny company grow up so fast across so many verticals (memory, silicon photonics, etc).
Up +5.39% premarket off the news. https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo
翻译：
$AEHR 收到另一家领先的 AI 处理器公司的 2200 万美元追加订单，用于 AI 处理器晶圆级烧入系统。
看到这家小公司在这么多领域（内存、硅光子学等）发展得如此迅速，真是令人兴奋。
消息发布后，股价在预市交易中上涨 +5.39%。 https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo
$AEHR receives another $22M follow on order for AI processor wafer level burn in systems.
By their lead AI processor company.
It’s cool to see this tiny company grow up so fast across so many verticals (memory, silicon photonics, etc).
Up +5.39% premarket off the news. https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo
翻译：
$AEHR 收到另一家领先的 AI 处理器公司的 2200 万美元追加订单，用于 AI 处理器晶圆级烧入系统。
看到这家小公司在这么多领域（内存、硅光子学等）发展得如此迅速，真是令人兴奋。
消息发布后，股价在预市交易中上涨 +5.39%。 https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo
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bottleneck that I predicted
- CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1)
Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.
翻译：
目前我看到的是关于 $SIVE 和 CW DFB 激光瓶颈的情况。
从光学盈利来看：
1. $LITE：超出预期的高功率连续波激光需求和失衡。
- 能够提高激光的平均售价。
- 第二季度 2027 年的 CPO 扩大规模按计划进行，否认了有关 CPO 扩大规模延迟的传闻。
Lumentum 确认了时间表（这让像 Sivers 这样的 CPO 玩家因误导性报告而出售），高利润率和合格的连续波激光的极端需求。
2. $AAOI：由于光学收发器需求过大，导致连续波激光容量不足。
- 没有在第一代 CPO 部署中发挥重要作用，$MTSI 似乎也不参与，而是专注于 NPO。自 $SMTC 收购 HieFo 后，没有看到太多动作。
- 将激光称为收发器 20-40% 需求失衡中的瓶颈。
- 每周都有客户接洽他们，要求增加供应和加快速度。
AOI 确认了需求失衡和激光瓶颈。并且我们为第一代 CPO 玩家获得了一个更小的池。
3. $AAOI 和 $LITE 都声称，中国玩家在 CPO 激光方面落后了几年，远远落后于他们宣称的合格容量。
- $AAOI 表示，CPO 激光落后 2-3 年以上。
- $LITE 表示，他们没有看到任何类似于中国宣称的产量（如果是假的，也没有任何补救措施）。
重新确认了与 CPO 相关的激光护城河，并且没有像光学行业的一些做空者声称的那样被淹没。
4. $MTSI 表示，许多客户正在因普通磷化铟 DFB 激光的供应短缺而接洽他们。
这再次将 Sivers 置于瓶颈之中，可能会给他们带来更多的客户需求。
在 $COHR（723.54 亿美元）、$LITE（665.7 亿美元）和 $AVGO（2.13 万亿美元）中：
你能以 15 亿美元的市值获得一家西方 CPO 领导者 $SIVE，这是非常特殊的。
感觉我的论点得到了验证，包括：
- 我预测的连续波瓶颈
- 连续波激光瓶颈（只有少数几家 CPO 玩家，至少对于第一代）
现在只需要等待下一个光学架构转变的拐点。 🚀💡🔍
- CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1)
Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.
翻译：
目前我看到的是关于 $SIVE 和 CW DFB 激光瓶颈的情况。
从光学盈利来看：
1. $LITE：超出预期的高功率连续波激光需求和失衡。
- 能够提高激光的平均售价。
- 第二季度 2027 年的 CPO 扩大规模按计划进行，否认了有关 CPO 扩大规模延迟的传闻。
Lumentum 确认了时间表（这让像 Sivers 这样的 CPO 玩家因误导性报告而出售），高利润率和合格的连续波激光的极端需求。
2. $AAOI：由于光学收发器需求过大，导致连续波激光容量不足。
- 没有在第一代 CPO 部署中发挥重要作用，$MTSI 似乎也不参与，而是专注于 NPO。自 $SMTC 收购 HieFo 后，没有看到太多动作。
- 将激光称为收发器 20-40% 需求失衡中的瓶颈。
- 每周都有客户接洽他们，要求增加供应和加快速度。
AOI 确认了需求失衡和激光瓶颈。并且我们为第一代 CPO 玩家获得了一个更小的池。
3. $AAOI 和 $LITE 都声称，中国玩家在 CPO 激光方面落后了几年，远远落后于他们宣称的合格容量。
- $AAOI 表示，CPO 激光落后 2-3 年以上。
- $LITE 表示，他们没有看到任何类似于中国宣称的产量（如果是假的，也没有任何补救措施）。
重新确认了与 CPO 相关的激光护城河，并且没有像光学行业的一些做空者声称的那样被淹没。
4. $MTSI 表示，许多客户正在因普通磷化铟 DFB 激光的供应短缺而接洽他们。
这再次将 Sivers 置于瓶颈之中，可能会给他们带来更多的客户需求。
在 $COHR（723.54 亿美元）、$LITE（665.7 亿美元）和 $AVGO（2.13 万亿美元）中：
你能以 15 亿美元的市值获得一家西方 CPO 领导者 $SIVE，这是非常特殊的。
感觉我的论点得到了验证，包括：
- 我预测的连续波瓶颈
- 连续波激光瓶颈（只有少数几家 CPO 玩家，至少对于第一代）
现在只需要等待下一个光学架构转变的拐点。 🚀💡🔍
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原文：
So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now.
From optical earnings:
1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers.
- Had ability to price up ASP for lasers.
- Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise.
Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers.
2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand.
- Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition.
- Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers.
- Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster.
AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players.
3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity.
- $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers.
- $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false).
Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector.
4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers.
Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand .
Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T):
It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE.
Feels like my thesis with both:
- The CW
So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now.
From optical earnings:
1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers.
- Had ability to price up ASP for lasers.
- Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise.
Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers.
2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand.
- Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition.
- Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers.
- Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster.
AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players.
3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity.
- $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers.
- $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false).
Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector.
4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers.
Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand .
Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T):
It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE.
Feels like my thesis with both:
- The CW
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原文：
It was reported today that Leopold’s Situational Awareness acquired 11.62% of Taiyo Yuden (6976).
Up from 5.99% as of July 16th.
I do agree with his position (if he still has it) in terms of how valuable this MLCC manufacturer is to global AI supply chains. https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
翻译：
据今日报道，Leopold的战略意识基金会（Situational Awareness）已收购了太阳诘电机（Taiyo Yuden，6976）的11.62%股份。
较7月16日的5.99%有所上升。
我同意他对这家MLCC制造商在全球AI供应链中的价值的看法（如果他仍持有该仓位）。 https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
It was reported today that Leopold’s Situational Awareness acquired 11.62% of Taiyo Yuden (6976).
Up from 5.99% as of July 16th.
I do agree with his position (if he still has it) in terms of how valuable this MLCC manufacturer is to global AI supply chains. https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
翻译：
据今日报道，Leopold的战略意识基金会（Situational Awareness）已收购了太阳诘电机（Taiyo Yuden，6976）的11.62%股份。
较7月16日的5.99%有所上升。
我同意他对这家MLCC制造商在全球AI供应链中的价值的看法（如果他仍持有该仓位）。 https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
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原文：
I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976)
It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th.
Current prices are ¥9,797.
I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.
翻译：
我不知道Leopold也是太阳诱电（6976）的MLCC瓶颈投资者
今天披露，态势感知公司拥有该公司5.99%的股份，截至6月29日，平均价格约为每股¥17,446。
当前价格为¥9,797。
由于太阳诱电是全球最大的MLCC制造商之一，我今天添加了一些股份以示支持。
I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976)
It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th.
Current prices are ¥9,797.
I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.
翻译：
我不知道Leopold也是太阳诱电（6976）的MLCC瓶颈投资者
今天披露，态势感知公司拥有该公司5.99%的股份，截至6月29日，平均价格约为每股¥17,446。
当前价格为¥9,797。
由于太阳诱电是全球最大的MLCC制造商之一，我今天添加了一些股份以示支持。
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原文：
Bro Charles the $SMCI CEO needs to become a politician.
I’ve never seen a guy dodge so many questions on a Q&A earnings transcript before.
- “what’s your 2027 gross margins”
A: “we look forward to growing them
- “do you anticipate margins to improve September?”
A: September. Which is September?
翻译：
查尔斯兄弟，这位 $SMCI 的CEO 需要从政了。
我从未见过有人在问答环节的财报记录中如此频繁地回避问题。
- “2027年的毛利率是多少”
A: “我们期待着它们的增长”
- “你预计9月份的利润率会改善吗？”
A: 9月。什么是9月？
Bro Charles the $SMCI CEO needs to become a politician.
I’ve never seen a guy dodge so many questions on a Q&A earnings transcript before.
- “what’s your 2027 gross margins”
A: “we look forward to growing them
- “do you anticipate margins to improve September?”
A: September. Which is September?
翻译：
查尔斯兄弟，这位 $SMCI 的CEO 需要从政了。
我从未见过有人在问答环节的财报记录中如此频繁地回避问题。
- “2027年的毛利率是多少”
A: “我们期待着它们的增长”
- “你预计9月份的利润率会改善吗？”
A: 9月。什么是9月？
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found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner."
Hello InP substrate bottleneck.
TLDR:
- Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control).
- CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027
- Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum
- UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity.
- China further behind in the laser/capacity angle.
Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players.
CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
翻译：
$LITE 财报电话会议摘要：
- “我们对CPO规模部署的时间安排有了更清晰的了解，我们仍然对2027年下半年超高功率激光芯片的需求增长充满信心”
H2 2027年开始CPO规模部署的时间表已从Lumentum确认，他们的主要客户也确认了这一时间表。
- “我们最近收到了外部光源（ELS）模块的首个购买订单，交货时间为2027年下半年”
ELS行业增长时间表
- “NPO机会对我们来说是完全增量的，显著增加了光学市场容量。”
激光瓶颈俱乐部的市场容量增加
- “我们预计1.6T收发器的采用率将从财年第一季度开始加剧，并持续到2027年”
- “即使在CW中，我们也对自己的定价能力感到惊讶”
对于$SIVE和其他CW激光玩家来说，具有积极的定价权。
- “因此，我们能够要求一个很好的价格溢价，我们预计这种情况将持续下去，即使这些中国公司上线。我也要提醒人们，我认为有些中国激光供应商目前尚未在市场上交付货物，因此他们没有任何补救措施，当他们抛出这些大数字时，我们到目前为止尚未看到任何类似的情况。”
中国玩家落后于市场预期，得到了$AAOI和$LITE的证实。
- “不幸的是，我们的高功率激光器交货量严重滞后”
“需求信号已经增加，我们的供货能力相对较低，滞后程度很大。”
超高功率CW激光器容量的极端需求失衡，EML的需求失衡持续。年末交货量约为5000万美元，预计2027年下半年和2028年规模扩张需求将大幅增加。
- “所以，在过去的三个月里，我们正在尝试做的事情是，确保更多的基板供应”（由于需求失衡），“我们从$AXTI那里找到了额外的基板帮助，他们是一个很好的合作伙伴。”
InP基板瓶颈问题出现。
摘要：
- Lumentum CPO规模部署2027年下半年交货时间表已确认，驳斥了任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。
- CW激光器需求在2027年下半年开始增长
- 超高功率CW激光器容量的极端需求失衡令Lumentum感到惊讶
- 超高功率激光器具有很高的利润率，并能够提高CW激光器容量的价格。
- 中国在激光器/容量方面进一步落后。
基本上只是验证了西方CW激光器玩家的时间表和需求/定价。
CW激光器的稀缺性已经发生，即使在主要量的增长之前...
Hello InP substrate bottleneck.
TLDR:
- Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control).
- CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027
- Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum
- UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity.
- China further behind in the laser/capacity angle.
Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players.
CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
翻译：
$LITE 财报电话会议摘要：
- “我们对CPO规模部署的时间安排有了更清晰的了解，我们仍然对2027年下半年超高功率激光芯片的需求增长充满信心”
H2 2027年开始CPO规模部署的时间表已从Lumentum确认，他们的主要客户也确认了这一时间表。
- “我们最近收到了外部光源（ELS）模块的首个购买订单，交货时间为2027年下半年”
ELS行业增长时间表
- “NPO机会对我们来说是完全增量的，显著增加了光学市场容量。”
激光瓶颈俱乐部的市场容量增加
- “我们预计1.6T收发器的采用率将从财年第一季度开始加剧，并持续到2027年”
- “即使在CW中，我们也对自己的定价能力感到惊讶”
对于$SIVE和其他CW激光玩家来说，具有积极的定价权。
- “因此，我们能够要求一个很好的价格溢价，我们预计这种情况将持续下去，即使这些中国公司上线。我也要提醒人们，我认为有些中国激光供应商目前尚未在市场上交付货物，因此他们没有任何补救措施，当他们抛出这些大数字时，我们到目前为止尚未看到任何类似的情况。”
中国玩家落后于市场预期，得到了$AAOI和$LITE的证实。
- “不幸的是，我们的高功率激光器交货量严重滞后”
“需求信号已经增加，我们的供货能力相对较低，滞后程度很大。”
超高功率CW激光器容量的极端需求失衡，EML的需求失衡持续。年末交货量约为5000万美元，预计2027年下半年和2028年规模扩张需求将大幅增加。
- “所以，在过去的三个月里，我们正在尝试做的事情是，确保更多的基板供应”（由于需求失衡），“我们从$AXTI那里找到了额外的基板帮助，他们是一个很好的合作伙伴。”
InP基板瓶颈问题出现。
摘要：
- Lumentum CPO规模部署2027年下半年交货时间表已确认，驳斥了任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。
- CW激光器需求在2027年下半年开始增长
- 超高功率CW激光器容量的极端需求失衡令Lumentum感到惊讶
- 超高功率激光器具有很高的利润率，并能够提高CW激光器容量的价格。
- 中国在激光器/容量方面进一步落后。
基本上只是验证了西方CW激光器玩家的时间表和需求/定价。
CW激光器的稀缺性已经发生，即使在主要量的增长之前...
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原文：
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs:
- "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027"
H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer.
- "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027"
ELS industry ramp timelines
- "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM."
More TAM for laser chokepoint club
- "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027."
- "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up"
Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players.
- "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online.
I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output."
Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE.
- "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers"
"The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply."
Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,.
- "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs:
- "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027"
H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer.
- "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027"
ELS industry ramp timelines
- "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM."
More TAM for laser chokepoint club
- "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027."
- "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up"
Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players.
- "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online.
I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output."
Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE.
- "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers"
"The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply."
Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,.
- "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we
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原文：
Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE.
Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3.
Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others)
Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders...
AI DC buildout read through is just enormous.
Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter.
Photonics players just keeps printing.
TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
翻译：
今天人工智能主题的收益非常惊人，涉及 $CRWV、$SMCI 和 $LITE。
Coreweave：荒谬的 ~$104B+ 订单积压，不包括在第三季度初添加的 $25B+ 新客户协议。
对于 Neoclouds 的计算需求是一个巨大的读数（对于 Nebius、Iren 和其他公司也是如此）
Supermicro：荒谬的 $65-72B 收入指导，新增 $60B+ 订单...
人工智能数据中心建设的读数简直巨大。
Lumentum：收入从 $808M 增加到 $1.01B 再增加到 $1.25B，营业利润率季度接季度增长。
光子技术公司不断创造利润。
总结：人工智能建设的每一层都在迅速发展，并且在收益中表现出来。
Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE.
Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3.
Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others)
Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders...
AI DC buildout read through is just enormous.
Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter.
Photonics players just keeps printing.
TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
翻译：
今天人工智能主题的收益非常惊人，涉及 $CRWV、$SMCI 和 $LITE。
Coreweave：荒谬的 ~$104B+ 订单积压，不包括在第三季度初添加的 $25B+ 新客户协议。
对于 Neoclouds 的计算需求是一个巨大的读数（对于 Nebius、Iren 和其他公司也是如此）
Supermicro：荒谬的 $65-72B 收入指导，新增 $60B+ 订单...
人工智能数据中心建设的读数简直巨大。
Lumentum：收入从 $808M 增加到 $1.01B 再增加到 $1.25B，营业利润率季度接季度增长。
光子技术公司不断创造利润。
总结：人工智能建设的每一层都在迅速发展，并且在收益中表现出来。
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原文：
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance...
vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus.
SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings.
That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June..
But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER).
Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.
翻译：
$SMCI 2027 年的指导方针实际上非常惊人：2027 财年收入指导为 650 亿美元至 720 亿美元...
与预期的约 524 亿美元相比，轻松超出 161 亿美元的预期。
SMCI 在此次财报中记录了巨大的 600 亿美元以上的新订单。
当他们在六月宣布计划在一年内共同建设 $SPCX + xAI 数据中心时，时间轴也很有趣..
但如果 SMCI 能够维持 10-15% 的毛利率，基于约 700 亿美元的收入指导... 我认为有很多空间进行重新评估，考虑到市值约为 200 亿美元（免责声明，我目前在 SMCI 中持有短期仓位，从本次财报开始）。
今天最重要的事情是从电话会议中了解 2027 年的利润率。
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance...
vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus.
SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings.
That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June..
But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER).
Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.
翻译：
$SMCI 2027 年的指导方针实际上非常惊人：2027 财年收入指导为 650 亿美元至 720 亿美元...
与预期的约 524 亿美元相比，轻松超出 161 亿美元的预期。
SMCI 在此次财报中记录了巨大的 600 亿美元以上的新订单。
当他们在六月宣布计划在一年内共同建设 $SPCX + xAI 数据中心时，时间轴也很有趣..
但如果 SMCI 能够维持 10-15% 的毛利率，基于约 700 亿美元的收入指导... 我认为有很多空间进行重新评估，考虑到市值约为 200 亿美元（免责声明，我目前在 SMCI 中持有短期仓位，从本次财报开始）。
今天最重要的事情是从电话会议中了解 2027 年的利润率。
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原文：
$LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings:
Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth
vs. ~$984.6M
Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95
Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6%
Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important:
Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B
Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63
Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5%
In terms of notes:
Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules"
- Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments)
- "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM"
- Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule."
Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from:
$808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions.
Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.
翻译：
$LITE 的财报已经发布，盈利非常强劲：
收入：$1.01B，环比增长24.5%，同比增长109.3%
预期约为$984.6M
调整后每股收益：$3.23，预期约为$2.95
毛利率（非GAAP）：50.4% / 营运利润率（非GAAP）：36.6%
第一季度FY2027的指导可能更重要：
收入：$1.225–1.275B，预期约为$1.16B
调整后每股收益：$4.05–4.35，预期约为$3.63
营运利润率（非GAAP）为39.5% - 40.5%
其他要点：
预计“超高功率CPO激光器需求增加，ELS模块的首批订单”
- 这对其他CPO玩家如$SIVEF、$COHR等来说是一个很好的参考（可能不包括AAOI，因为他们错过了第一代部署）
- “NPO业务的开始是光学技术开始渗透到机架内连接的首个迹象，这大大增加了我们的光学市场规模”
- 收入预测“提前超过一个季度达到我们的目标模型”
盈利非常强劲，收入从$808M增长到$1.01B，接着到$1.25B，同时营运利润率持续增加... 这只是我的初步印象。
最重要的是即将到来的财报电话会议。
$LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings:
Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth
vs. ~$984.6M
Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95
Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6%
Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important:
Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B
Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63
Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5%
In terms of notes:
Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules"
- Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments)
- "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM"
- Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule."
Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from:
$808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions.
Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.
翻译：
$LITE 的财报已经发布，盈利非常强劲：
收入：$1.01B，环比增长24.5%，同比增长109.3%
预期约为$984.6M
调整后每股收益：$3.23，预期约为$2.95
毛利率（非GAAP）：50.4% / 营运利润率（非GAAP）：36.6%
第一季度FY2027的指导可能更重要：
收入：$1.225–1.275B，预期约为$1.16B
调整后每股收益：$4.05–4.35，预期约为$3.63
营运利润率（非GAAP）为39.5% - 40.5%
其他要点：
预计“超高功率CPO激光器需求增加，ELS模块的首批订单”
- 这对其他CPO玩家如$SIVEF、$COHR等来说是一个很好的参考（可能不包括AAOI，因为他们错过了第一代部署）
- “NPO业务的开始是光学技术开始渗透到机架内连接的首个迹象，这大大增加了我们的光学市场规模”
- 收入预测“提前超过一个季度达到我们的目标模型”
盈利非常强劲，收入从$808M增长到$1.01B，接着到$1.25B，同时营运利润率持续增加... 这只是我的初步印象。
最重要的是即将到来的财报电话会议。
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原文：
Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle...
$AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028.
400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line.
On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2).
TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online...
For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line.
Rather than one-and-done off of one year.
This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.
翻译：
只是想让人们知道，AAOI 不仅仅是一个一年周期的公司...
$AAOI 预计他们的 ELSFP 容量将在 2028 年达到每月 40 万单位。
40 万 * 大约 400 美元的 ELS ASP（高盛假设）= 再增加大约 19.2 亿美元的年度收入容量作为一个新的独立产品线（>50% 的毛利率）。
这是在他们现有的 2027 年预测之上（例如，进入下半年每月 4.71 亿美元的收发器年度收入约为 56 亿美元）。
1.6T 的市场规模也会迅速增长，因此我预计他们在 2027 年下半年末的预测会上升，因为更多的容量上线...
对于某些光学公司来说，这是一个叠加的周期（例如 1.6T，CPO 规模扩大，NPO 等），一个叠加在另一个上面... 叠加在另一个上面... 市场规模和利润率像小兵一样叠加...
而不是仅仅依靠一年。
这与其他行业形成鲜明对比，在那些行业中，增长可能会在可能一年的三位数年同比收入增长后放缓。
Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle...
$AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028.
400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line.
On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2).
TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online...
For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line.
Rather than one-and-done off of one year.
This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.
翻译：
只是想让人们知道，AAOI 不仅仅是一个一年周期的公司...
$AAOI 预计他们的 ELSFP 容量将在 2028 年达到每月 40 万单位。
40 万 * 大约 400 美元的 ELS ASP（高盛假设）= 再增加大约 19.2 亿美元的年度收入容量作为一个新的独立产品线（>50% 的毛利率）。
这是在他们现有的 2027 年预测之上（例如，进入下半年每月 4.71 亿美元的收发器年度收入约为 56 亿美元）。
1.6T 的市场规模也会迅速增长，因此我预计他们在 2027 年下半年末的预测会上升，因为更多的容量上线...
对于某些光学公司来说，这是一个叠加的周期（例如 1.6T，CPO 规模扩大，NPO 等），一个叠加在另一个上面... 叠加在另一个上面... 市场规模和利润率像小兵一样叠加...
而不是仅仅依靠一年。
这与其他行业形成鲜明对比，在那些行业中，增长可能会在可能一年的三位数年同比收入增长后放缓。
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原文：
Holy... We've reached 1,000,000 followers!
It's genuinely incredible that so many people care to read about my ideas around AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
From substrates, lasers, actuators, memory, power to some of the most niche parts of upstream supply chains.
I've had a lot of fun sharing free thoughts I've come across along the way and tracking whether they get validated over time.
A lot worked out, some haven't, and some are still playing out!
But honestly, all of this attention has come as a massive surprise to me this year, especially globally, from Sweden, Japan, Korea, to China.
Thank you for all your support! I'll be announcing something soon to celebrate.
翻译：
天啊... 我们已经达到100万粉丝了！
真的是不可思议，有这么多人关心我的关于人工智能瓶颈和限制的想法。
从基板、激光、执行器、内存、电源到上游供应链中一些最小众的部分。
我在分享沿途遇到的免费想法和跟踪它们是否随着时间的推移被验证时，度过了很多美好的时光。
很多想法被证明是正确的，一些没有，而有些仍在发展中！
但说实话，这么多关注对我来说今年是一个巨大的惊喜，尤其是在全球范围内，从瑞典、ญี่ปุ่น、韩国到中国。
感谢你们所有人的支持！我很快会宣布一些庆祝活动。
Holy... We've reached 1,000,000 followers!
It's genuinely incredible that so many people care to read about my ideas around AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
From substrates, lasers, actuators, memory, power to some of the most niche parts of upstream supply chains.
I've had a lot of fun sharing free thoughts I've come across along the way and tracking whether they get validated over time.
A lot worked out, some haven't, and some are still playing out!
But honestly, all of this attention has come as a massive surprise to me this year, especially globally, from Sweden, Japan, Korea, to China.
Thank you for all your support! I'll be announcing something soon to celebrate.
翻译：
天啊... 我们已经达到100万粉丝了！
真的是不可思议，有这么多人关心我的关于人工智能瓶颈和限制的想法。
从基板、激光、执行器、内存、电源到上游供应链中一些最小众的部分。
我在分享沿途遇到的免费想法和跟踪它们是否随着时间的推移被验证时，度过了很多美好的时光。
很多想法被证明是正确的，一些没有，而有些仍在发展中！
但说实话，这么多关注对我来说今年是一个巨大的惊喜，尤其是在全球范围内，从瑞典、ญี่ปุ่น、韩国到中国。
感谢你们所有人的支持！我很快会宣布一些庆祝活动。
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原文：
We're almost there...
翻译：
我们几乎成功了...
We're almost there...
翻译：
我们几乎成功了...
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原文：
uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors.
The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous?
I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI.
And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two.
Regardless that's just absurd demand.
翻译：
唉…… Unitree 的 IPO 被零售投资者超额认购了超过8000倍。
对纯粹的人形机器人公司的需求绝对巨大？
我个人加入了美国的Agility Robotics俱乐部（软银，$NVDA，$AMZN，富士康等），通过$CCXI以25亿美元的估值。
我的看法是，Unitree可能会以300亿美元以上的估值开盘（从IPO前的永久合约来看），这可能会在一两周内给美国的领先玩家带来更多关注。
无论如何，这种需求简直是荒谬的。
uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors.
The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous?
I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI.
And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two.
Regardless that's just absurd demand.
翻译：
唉…… Unitree 的 IPO 被零售投资者超额认购了超过8000倍。
对纯粹的人形机器人公司的需求绝对巨大？
我个人加入了美国的Agility Robotics俱乐部（软银，$NVDA，$AMZN，富士康等），通过$CCXI以25亿美元的估值。
我的看法是，Unitree可能会以300亿美元以上的估值开盘（从IPO前的永久合约来看），这可能会在一两周内给美国的领先玩家带来更多关注。
无论如何，这种需求简直是荒谬的。
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原文：
Woah, $RIOT announced a $9.1B deal with Anthropic, with a possible contract extending to $16.1B, over 20Y.
$AMD also exercised its option to expand its existing deal with Riot. (And they still have another 1 GW campus they have LOI with for a tenant)
In terms of timelines, seem like most of the Colo basket have their revenue inflections hit H2 2027?
(Eg. Riot Anthropic deal targets Dec 2027 for first 96 MW, AMD full 50 MW - May 2027)
It’s cute to see all the former miners like $IREN and co. grow up.
翻译：
哇，$RIOT 宣布与 Anthropic 达成 91 亿美元的协议，合同可能延伸至 161 亿美元，跨越 20 年。
$AMD 也行使了其扩大与 Riot 现有协议的选择权。（他们还有一個 1GW 的校园，与租户签有意向书）
从时间表来看，似乎大多数 Colo 篮子中的公司将在 2027 年下半年实现收入拐点？
（例如，Riot Anthropic 交易计划于 2027 年 12 月首次实现 96MW，AMD 全部 50MW - 2027 年 5 月）
看到所有前矿工如 $IREN 等逐渐成长，真是令人欣慰。
Woah, $RIOT announced a $9.1B deal with Anthropic, with a possible contract extending to $16.1B, over 20Y.
$AMD also exercised its option to expand its existing deal with Riot. (And they still have another 1 GW campus they have LOI with for a tenant)
In terms of timelines, seem like most of the Colo basket have their revenue inflections hit H2 2027?
(Eg. Riot Anthropic deal targets Dec 2027 for first 96 MW, AMD full 50 MW - May 2027)
It’s cute to see all the former miners like $IREN and co. grow up.
翻译：
哇，$RIOT 宣布与 Anthropic 达成 91 亿美元的协议，合同可能延伸至 161 亿美元，跨越 20 年。
$AMD 也行使了其扩大与 Riot 现有协议的选择权。（他们还有一個 1GW 的校园，与租户签有意向书）
从时间表来看，似乎大多数 Colo 篮子中的公司将在 2027 年下半年实现收入拐点？
（例如，Riot Anthropic 交易计划于 2027 年 12 月首次实现 96MW，AMD 全部 50MW - 2027 年 5 月）
看到所有前矿工如 $IREN 等逐渐成长，真是令人欣慰。
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原文：
Be Barrons:
- Wants to write about optical supply supply chains like $AAOI
- Hiring DPT: who needs engineers to write about this something this simple? Let’s find underpaid political philosophy backgrounds.
- proceeds to find a new hire from nonprofit communication consulting
- first day on job: gets paid to model revenue ramp/margins projections, CW laser bottlenecks, internal capacity
- New hire: “I don’t understand this sht”, “looks like a memestock”
Barrons: “Memestock? looks like our next article, I don’t understand either”.
翻译：
巴伦斯：
- 想要撰写关于光学供应链的文章，类似于 $AAOI
- 招聘数据处理团队（DPT）成员：谁需要工程师来撰写这么简单的东西？让我们找一些具有政治哲学背景的人，他们的薪水较低。
- 开始寻找一位来自非营利组织传播咨询的新员工
- 新员工第一天上班：被要求建立收入增长和利润率预测模型，研究CW激光瓶颈问题和内部容量
- 新员工：“我不明白这些东西”，“看起来像一个迷因股票”
巴伦斯：“迷因股票？听起来像我们的下一篇文章，我也不明白”。
Be Barrons:
- Wants to write about optical supply supply chains like $AAOI
- Hiring DPT: who needs engineers to write about this something this simple? Let’s find underpaid political philosophy backgrounds.
- proceeds to find a new hire from nonprofit communication consulting
- first day on job: gets paid to model revenue ramp/margins projections, CW laser bottlenecks, internal capacity
- New hire: “I don’t understand this sht”, “looks like a memestock”
Barrons: “Memestock? looks like our next article, I don’t understand either”.
翻译：
巴伦斯：
- 想要撰写关于光学供应链的文章，类似于 $AAOI
- 招聘数据处理团队（DPT）成员：谁需要工程师来撰写这么简单的东西？让我们找一些具有政治哲学背景的人，他们的薪水较低。
- 开始寻找一位来自非营利组织传播咨询的新员工
- 新员工第一天上班：被要求建立收入增长和利润率预测模型，研究CW激光瓶颈问题和内部容量
- 新员工：“我不明白这些东西”，“看起来像一个迷因股票”
巴伦斯：“迷因股票？听起来像我们的下一篇文章，我也不明白”。
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原文：
Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI.
There’s a pretty interesting study:
Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either…
- Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity)
- Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%).
Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general…
Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery.
Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.
翻译：
现在市场又在举办激光派对，从 $SIVE，OE Solutions，$LITE，Coherent，到 $AAOI。
有一项相当有趣的研究：
来自富达和加州大学伯克利分校的研究论文表明，最佳投资者是那些：
- 根据富达的说法，人们常常会忘记自己的账户
- 没有积极交易或过度交易（不频繁交易者的回报率为18.5%，而频繁交易者的回报率为11.4%）。
这并不是建议，但这些轶事可能对散户有所帮助……
由于我见证了很多人在光学存储、光子学或主题波动性方面的放弃，所以我想提醒散户不要在突然反弹时没有仓位。
拥有信念通常也能帮助人们避免过度交易，因为这可以帮助他们在下跌时避免过度交易或寻找成本平均的机会。
Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI.
There’s a pretty interesting study:
Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either…
- Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity)
- Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%).
Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general…
Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery.
Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.
翻译：
现在市场又在举办激光派对，从 $SIVE，OE Solutions，$LITE，Coherent，到 $AAOI。
有一项相当有趣的研究：
来自富达和加州大学伯克利分校的研究论文表明，最佳投资者是那些：
- 根据富达的说法，人们常常会忘记自己的账户
- 没有积极交易或过度交易（不频繁交易者的回报率为18.5%，而频繁交易者的回报率为11.4%）。
这并不是建议，但这些轶事可能对散户有所帮助……
由于我见证了很多人在光学存储、光子学或主题波动性方面的放弃，所以我想提醒散户不要在突然反弹时没有仓位。
拥有信念通常也能帮助人们避免过度交易，因为这可以帮助他们在下跌时避免过度交易或寻找成本平均的机会。
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