觅信聚合

我的关注

2026-08-15 02:48

原文：
US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips.

$MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this...

Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market".

Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.

翻译：
美国政府敦促 $AAPL 不要购买中国内存芯片。

$MU、$SKHY 和三星对此消息感到高兴...

令人啼笑皆非的是，CXMT/YMTC 也在涨价，所以这并不是“充斥市场的廉价中国内存”。

苹果曾经在 AI 热潮之前拥有极大的供应商话语权。

2026-08-14 11:29

原文：
The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D

翻译：
$SHKY，三星，$SNDK，$MU 的内存瓶颈从未改变 anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D

2026-08-14 08:31

原文：
Donald Trump signs a proclamation to strengthen US supply chains for drones.

Benefiting U.S. drone component suppliers like $UMAC to UAS manufacturers like $ONDS + $RCAT.

TLDR, 100% tariffs on:
- UAS docking stations + certain critical components
- certain parts for >25 kg drones
- Drones >25 kg

25% tariffs on:
- broader components

UAS = Unmanned Aircraft System (don't have any positions in any above)

翻译：
唐纳德·特朗普签署了一项宣言，以加强美国无人机供应链。

这将惠及美国无人机零部件供应商，如 $UMAC，以及无人机制造商如 $ONDS 和 $RCAT。

总结，100% 关税适用于：
- 无人机停靠站和某些关键部件
- 某些超过 25 公斤无人机的零件
- 超过 25 公斤的无人机

25% 关税适用于：
- 更广泛的零部件

UAS = 无人机系统（无持仓）

2026-08-14 04:07

原文：
Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter.

- "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes.

At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028.

- "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month.

TLDR:
- SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027
- Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028

Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent.

Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.

翻译：
感觉玻璃基板的时间表至少又推迟了一个季度。

- 三星电子机械公司（Samsung Electro-Mechanics）因客户对原型的可靠性评估出现瓶颈，推迟了对半导体玻璃基板的投资。

在最近的第二季度财报发布会上，仅仅一个月后，公司就将运营开始时间修订为2028年。

- 据报道，SKC将玻璃基板的大规模生产推迟到2027年，目标是在年底完成最终验证（Trendforce），这是上个月的消息。

总结：
- SKC Absolics 从2026年下半年推迟到2027年上半年
- 三星从2027年下半年推迟到2028年上半年

并不是所有的时间表变化都是好消息，但玻璃核心基板的变化似乎即将到来。

一些玩家（如 $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027)）的产量增长可能会跟随这些大规模生产时间表。

2026-08-13 14:03

原文：
In another world, $SMCI would look more like $DELL?

If they didn't try smuggling $NVDA GPUs using hairdryers...

Regardless, SMCI guiding $65-72B FY 2027 revenue off a ~$25B MC is pretty crazy the more I look at it. https://t.co/FUZIojiMcc

翻译：
在另一个世界，$SMCI 的表现可能更像 $DELL？

如果他们没有尝试使用吹风机走私 $NVDA 的GPU……

无论如何，SMCI 预计 2027 财年收入为 650-720 亿美元，市值约为 250 亿美元，这看起来越来越疯狂。 https://t.co/FUZIojiMcc

2026-08-13 11:44

原文：
In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation.

If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs.

Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT.

Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign.

On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top.

Enterprise is probably having a better time though.

Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors.

Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month.

Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.

翻译：
IPO新闻……Vantage数据中心正在探索以1000亿美元的估值上市。

如果你不熟悉，$ORCL是他们Stargate（OpenAI终端用户）的主租户，Vantage开发和运营超大规模数据中心。

Anthropic的IPO也在预期之中，投资者预计其估值将达到2万亿美元，超过$SPCX，据FT报道。

是的……我不确定关于Anthropic的估值。吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）为这种估值辩护绝对不是一个好兆头。

顺便说一下，Opus 5可能是我迄今为止使用过的最差的消费级LLM，它就像一个智商只有5的LLM，基于糟糕的数据检索运行。并且它还具有类似Fable的上帝情结。

但是企业用户可能会有更好的体验。

Unitree本月也预计会上市，估值为90亿美元。这对Unitree在人形机器人领域来说是一个积极的趋势。

虽然不是一个AI相关的名字，但SHEIN预计将在本月19日上市。

去问问你认识的任何女孩，她们可能都很熟悉这个平台。 🤔

2026-08-13 10:18

原文：
Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions.

- I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point:

They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now.

And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more.

So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk.

- Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp.

Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling.

But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements.

The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet.

And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement.

But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials.

I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet.

But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with

2026-08-13 10:18

that.

That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.

翻译：
以下是我对 $POET 的看法，似乎人们在 subreddit 上庆祝我小规模投资。

- 我完全不知道。他们如何说服股东允许他们如此大量地稀释股份：

他们现在手里有大约 8.3 亿美元的现金。

我的猜测是，他们几乎完成了，因为如果他们需要更多，我会感到难以置信。

现在... 他们有大约 8.3 亿美元来发展业务，例如并购，而公司的市值最近大幅下降（例如，125 亿美元的市值与 8.3 亿美元的现金储备相比），我认为这是一个有吸引力的投资机会。

- 2027 年的年度生产能力目标是 1200 万台光学引擎，这是一个非常夸张的增长目标。

我需要进一步研究 Poet 产品的平均销售价格（ASP），但也许是每台 125-200 美元？因此，在每台 150 美元的 ASP 下，收入上限为 18 亿美元。

但他们现在就像 AAOI 的反面：没有明显的需求来填满所有的生产能力。除了 Lumilens 之外，Lumilens 现在是一家高度估值的超大规模供应商（可能是亚马逊或微软），并且有数十亿美元的客户协议。

有趣的是，如果 Poet 在幕后与像三菱这样的玩家签署了预付款 EML 协议，或者与 Sivers 签署了 CW 协议，利用他们的资产负债表。

并且考虑到当前的瓶颈，玩家可能会使用 Poet 作为供应链采购的变通方法。

但基本上，你有一个非常富有的公司，拥有大量的生产能力即将上线。并且他们不会很快消失，因为他们的财务状况良好。

我不认为这在技术上与 $SIVE 相同的估值相比，具有更强的技术护城河，特别是在 CW 激光器与光学引擎封装方面。正如你最近看到的 Celestial 和 Poet。

但也许... 有可能某个超大规模公司或下游公司在未来某个时候宣布了一份大宗协议，$POET 的股票就会大涨。并且他们已经为此做好了供应链的准备。

这就是我最终决定承担的风险，但这并不是对我来说像 $AAOI 一样明确的长期投资机会。

2026-08-13 10:17

原文：
Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions.

- I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point:

They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now.

And my guess is that they're done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more.

So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk.

- Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp.

Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling.

But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements.

The interesting thing is Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet.

And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement.

But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials.

I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet.

But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that.

2026-08-13 10:17

That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.

翻译：
以下是我对 $POET 的看法，似乎人们在 subreddit 上庆祝我小规模投资。

- 我完全不知道。他们如何说服股东允许他们如此大量地稀释股份：

他们现在手里有大约 830 万美元的现金。

而我的猜测是，他们已经完成了这一步，因为如果他们需要更多，我会感到难以置信。

所以现在... 他们有大约 830 万美元来发展业务，如并购，且最近市值大幅下降（例如，125 亿美元的市值与 830 万美元的现金相比），我认为这是一个有吸引力的投资机会。

- 2027 年的年度生产能力目标是 1200 万台光学引擎，这是一个相当荒谬的增长目标。

需要进一步研究 Poet 产品的平均销售价格（ASP），但可能在 125-200 美元之间。因此，在 150 美元的平均销售价格下，收入上限为 18 亿美元。

但他们现在就像 AAOI 的反面：没有明显的需求来填满所有的生产能力。除了 Lumilens 之外，Lumilens 现在是一家高度估值的超大规模供应商（可能是亚马逊或微软），并且有数十亿美元的客户协议。

有趣的是，Poet 在幕后与三菱等公司签署了预付款 EML 协议，或与 Sivers 签署了 CW 协议，利用他们的资产负债表。

并且考虑到当前的瓶颈，玩家可能会使用 Poet 作为供应链采购的变通方法。

但基本上，你有一个非常富有的公司，拥有大量的生产能力即将上线。并且他们不会很快消失，因为他们的财务状况。

我不认为这与上游激光瓶颈相比，在技术防御方面具有相同的优势，例如 $SIVE 在相同的估值下拥有 CW 激光技术方面的技术护城河。正如你最近看到的 Celestial 和 Poet。

但也许... 有可能某个超大规模公司或下游公司在未来某个时候宣布了一份大规模协议，$POET就会起飞。并且他们已经为此做好了供应链的准备。

这是我最终决定承担的风险，但这并不是对我来说像 $AAOI 一样明确的长期投资。

2026-08-13 09:47

原文：
Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both)

So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates:

Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it.

Since then:

- $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive)
- $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers.
- Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap"
- IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract.

The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly).

There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important.

But basically:
FY2025 revenue: £97.3m
FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m

They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains.

Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop.

After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.

翻译：
感觉我的$IQE 论点在今年2月得到了验证，和$AXTI 等其他公司一起。（我仍然看好这两只股票）

所以我停止了对他们的密切关注。但是简要更新：

今年早些时候，IQE 是一个处于困境但在光学供应链中至关重要的瓶颈，和$LITE 等公司有关，当时我发表了关于它的论点。

从那时起：

- $MTSI 签署了长期外延片供应协议，获得了公司股份，现在 IQE 已经没有银行债务（Macom 有可转换债券，但这是积极的）
- $TSEM 签署了InP 外延片协议。
- 管理层明确表示，他们与 IQE 签署的协议是为了确保“战略III-V 外延片供应，以满足他们的路线图”
- IQE 签署了另一份约1400万美元的神秘AI 数据中心合同。

我之前的论点中唯一仍在发展的部分是

2026-08-13 09:47

IQE 将其潜在/未充分利用的产能转向AI 数据中心领域，以匹配同行公司如Landmark 在该领域的表现（这需要时间，大约一年左右，如果我记得正确的话）。

有国家安全影响，我将避免讨论，这使得他们更加重要。

但是基本上：
2025 财年收入：9730万英镑
2026 财年预测：超过1.265亿英镑

他们在光学领域再次迅速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，仍然是西方光学供应链中的关键瓶颈。

现在... 随着与领先的光子公司签署新的协议，收入增长，像Macom 这样的公司作为软后盾。

在一个论点得到验证后，通常我会坐回去享受业务的增长。

2026-08-13 07:45

原文：
$SIVE announces a $3.4M development program with SemiNex!

For CPO, DFB laser arrays, and optical amplifiers.

Early production is targeted H2 2027 (in line with early scale up CPO timelines)

Seemed weird to me at first given product overlap, since SemiNex is a much smaller Series B company...

But then I got reminded of a less explicit version of $SPCX + Cursor relationship (derisking by working together first).

There's probably something interesting Sivers found in this company.

翻译：
$SIVE 宣布与 SemiNex 合作开展 340 万美元的开发计划！

该计划涉及 CPO、DFB 激光阵列和光放大器的开发。

预计早期生产将于 2027 年下半年开始（与早期 CPO 扩张时间表一致）

一开始我觉得这很奇怪，因为两家公司的产品有重叠，而且 SemiNex 是一家规模较小的 B 轮公司...

但后来我想起了 $SPCX 和 Cursor 之间的关系（通过合作来降低风险）。

Sivers 很可能在这家公司发现了什么有趣的东西。

2026-08-13 02:52

原文：
Is it just me, or is the list of 3 letter optical jargon never ending?

We have LPO, LRO, NPO, XPO, CPO, OBO, and others for approaches.

Then InP, EML, ELS, OCS, SOI, and others to add to the random terms.

Even the industry events with OCP or OFC get their three letter names.

People who have followed me on my optical bottleneck scavenger hunt with $SOI or $IQE might know a lot by now.

But wouldn’t new followers might be super confused…

翻译：
我是不是唯一一个觉得三字母的光学术语列表永无止境的人？

我们有LPO、LRO、NPO、XPO、CPO、OBO等用于方法的术语。

然后还有InP、EML、ELS、OCS、SOI等其他用于随机术语的缩写。

甚至行业活动也使用OCP或OFC这样的三字母名称。

那些跟随我进行光学瓶颈寻宝之旅的朋友，可能已经了解了很多关于$SOI或$IQE的知识。

但是新的关注者可能会感到非常困惑……

2026-08-13 02:12

Yuden is probably cleaner MLCC bottleneck exposure, it's broadening past AI servers this month.

And all indicators looks like MLCC will get more bottlenecked with lead times increasing.

Main problem is Japanese suppliers don't like to price hike very much.

TLDR:
- Low MC relative to global MLCC production
- MLCC Bottleneck broadening to eg. consumer/automotive recently
- Early cycle of price hikes.

Is probably why SA took positions.

They dont really need to win AI server market share, since MLCC is tightening into broader cateogries, and this company has 11.4% share of total market (which becomes a lot more strategically valuable).

Still looking into the sector more, these are just initial thoughts

翻译：
关于太阳诱电和局势感知的前峰值约16%股份的更多思考：

对于整个MLCC市场，2025年估计如下：

-村田：40.8%
-三星电子机械：22.5%
-太阳诱电：11.3%

作为前三大供应商，太阳诱电成为第三大MLCC制造商。

->村田有点大（1010亿美元市值）
->三星的曝光度不够干净，例如机器人等（810亿美元市值）
->太阳诱电是最小的玩家（约95亿美元），但MLCC曝光度最高。

很多人取笑说村田和三星占据了大部分AI曝光度，所以购买太阳诱电是愚蠢的。

他们的AI数据中心曝光度不如其他公司，但相对于市值来说，曝光度却高于人们的想象。

由于村田和三星合计占据了85%，而其他供应商合计仅占15%，但即使是较小的曝光度也会因市值而变得有意义。

我也将MLCC视为一种类似于HBM的内存玩家，并将传统的NAND/DRAM视为其他板块的投资模型：

例如，2026年初，Trendforce表示，消费级MLCC被低估利用。

但本月，Trendforce表示，生产资源转向了AI服务器，导致了材料约束和库存短缺，影响了汽车和工业等领域（更广泛的MLCC领域，太阳诱电凭借11.3%的市场份额而受到影响）。

然后，三星电子机械公司上个月宣布了30%的价格上涨，太阳诱电的高容量汽车产品价格上涨了10-30%，消费品价格上涨了6-13%，九月份的发货量有了修订，并且有长期协议的指标。

根据太阳诱电自己的预测，AI服务器MLCC销售额在2026年3月财年增长了约30-35%，并且同比增长了80%。看起来，这是MLCC周期的早期阶段。

顺便提一下，新兴业务包括微电池、燃料电池和太阳能电池，这很有趣。

相对于市值，我认为太阳诱电可能是最干净的MLCC瓶颈曝光度，它正在扩展到AI服务器以外的领域。

所有指标表明，MLCC将变得更加紧张，交货时间也会增加。

主要问题是，日本供应商不喜欢大幅提高价格。

总结：
- 市值相对于全球MLCC生产较低
- MLCC瓶颈正在扩展到消费和汽车等领域
- 价格上涨的早期阶段。

这可能是SA采取行动的原因。

他们不需要赢得AI服务器市场份额，因为MLCC正在变得更加紧张，而这家公司拥有11.4%的市场份额（这变得更加具有战略价值）。

我仍在研究这个领域，这些只是初步的想法。

2026-08-13 02:12

原文：
Just some more thoughts on Taiyo Yuden and the Situational awareness former peak ~16% stake:

For the entire MLCC Market, MS in 2025 est. it looked like:

- Murata: 40.8%
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics: 22.5%
- Taiyo Yuden: 11.3%

As the top 3 suppliers, making it the 3rd largest MLCC manufacturer.

-> Murata is a little big ($101B MC)
-> Samsung not the cleanest exposure, eg. robotics, and others ($81B MC),
-> Taiyo Yuden is the smallest player (~$9.5B), which highest exposure to MLCC.

Lot of people were making fun and saying Murata/Samsung make up majority of the AI exposure, so it's stupid to buy Taiyo Yuden.

They don't have as much AI DC exposure as the others, but relative to the MC it's higher than people think.

Since there was a note that that Murata/Samsung were combined 85%, and every other supplier combined would be 15%, but even smaller exposure would be meaningful given MC.

I also kinda treat MLCCs somewhat similar to HBM with memory players, and legacy NAND/DRAM like MLCCs for other segments as an investment model:

eg: earlier in 2026, Trendforce stated broader consumer MLCCs were underutilized.

But this month, Trendofrce stated production resources shifted toward AI servers, causing material constraints/inventory shortages with automotive/industrial/etc (broader MLCCs that Taiyo touches given that 11.3% market share).

And then theres Samsung Electro-mechanics broad 30% price hike the other month. Taiyo 10-30% high capactance auto products, 6-13% hikes on consumer products, price revision for Sept shipments, with LTA indicators.

For their own forcases Taiyo said AI server MLCC sales grew around 30-35% in FY March 2026, and indicated 80% growth for Y/Y. So looks like its an early part of the MLCC cycle

on a side note: emerging business were microbatteries, fuel cells, solar cells which is kinda interesting.

Relative to MC: I'd say Taiyo

2026-08-12 23:00

原文：
My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now.

But TLDR of $COHR earnings:

"given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally"

- Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally...

I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027)

$AAOI -> Internal
$COHR -> Internal
Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity.

"Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility]

- Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years.

"we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production"

- Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck.

"absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in"

"we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027"

- Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027.

- "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027"

- $COHR revenue go brrr

So for regular numbers it's:

- $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be

2026-08-12 23:00

happening entering Q4 into 2027
- Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2%

Next quarter guide is:
- Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue
- Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5%

Basically:
$1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027)
~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins)

For operating margins:
18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8%

Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.

翻译：
我的主要收获是，您的商家CW激光供应商现在似乎变得极为重要。

但$COHR盈利报告的简要摘要是：
“考虑到我们在DC业务中收到关于收发器的需求，我不认为在近期内我们会向外出售磷化铟激光”
- 如果$AAOI不能满足第一代CPO部署的容量需求，而$COHR不向外出售... 那么对外出售InP激光的公司的价值将大大增加

我想这就是为什么$MTSI说很多客户正在迫切地向他们寻求InP CW DFB激光（尽管他们直到2027年底才有有意义的容量上线）

$AAOI -> 内部
$COHR -> 内部
买家 -> 降低了寻找容量的选择

“我们的订单现在延伸到2027财年，基本上已经完全满负荷。我们实际上已经预订到2027年底” [巨大的需求可见性]

- Coherent还提到，长期协议将持续到十年末。这在某种程度上强化了$POET CEO在他们的年度股东大会上所说的话，即“大三”在未来两年内已经完全售罄。

“我们目前在装配和测试能力方面并不受限。我们真正面临的限制是磷化铟生产的扩张”

- 只是为了瓶颈兄弟们，装配/测试并不是瓶颈。

“绝对没有CPO需求的推迟。事实上，情况恰恰相反。我们已经看到需求增加和客户需求被提前”

“我们预计CPO规模应用的收入将在2027年下半年开始流入”

- 如果$LITE和$COHR确认CPO规模应用的收入将在2027年下半年到来，对于其他CPO玩家来说是一个重要的信号。

- “季度收入超过30亿美元，到2027财年底”

- $COHR收入暴增

那么，正常的数字是：

- 20.46亿美元收入（+13.3% Q/Q，+33.8% Y/Y），主要收入增长似乎正在进入Q4到2027年
- 非GAAP毛利率：40.2%

下一季度的指导是：
- 收入：22-24亿美元
- 非GAAP毛利率：39.5-41.5%

基本上：
109亿 -> 181亿 -> 205亿 -> ~230亿 -> 300亿（2027财年底）
~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5%（毛利率）

对于营业利润率：
18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8%

与$LITE的利润增长相比，我对$COHR的利润增长略感失望，但$COHR的收入规模正在迅速增长。

2026-08-12 12:24

原文：
$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again.

$582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand.

Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B
2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth.

Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals:

- "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand
- "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value"
- Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments
- Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof).
- Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments.
- annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals)

Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression)

We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.

翻译：
$NBIS 的预测又一次非常疯狂。

收入为 5.823 亿美元（同比增长 454%，环比增长 46%），在 AI 云业务中，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率约为 50%。现金储备为 80.4 亿美元。

重申财务预测（2026 年收入：30-34 亿美元，2026 年年末 ARR：70-90 亿美元），我曾希望能看到预测的提升，但现有的增长已经非常庞大了。

这不仅仅是关于本季度的财务数据，还有这些信号：

- “我们可以在这些条件下今天出售整个 2027 年的容量。”对需求有巨大的可见性
- “4 个客户协议，平均每个合同价值超过 10 亿美元”
- 大约 70% 的第二季度交易包括客户预付款
- 合同电力指导已经再次提高，从大约 4GW+ 到 5GW。（这曾经是与 $IREN 辩论中的一个担忧，但 Nebius 的电力指导不断刷新纪录）
- 预计 2026 年预付款超过 90 亿美元，并表示有 400 亿美元以上的承诺。
- 每兆瓦的年度合同价值不断增长（第三季度短期容量交易的年度合同价值超过 4000 万美元/兆瓦）

同样的熊市故事总会存在（例如，54.66 亿美元的资本支出和当前的 GAAP 净亏损），但需求极其旺盛，具有巨大的可见性，AI 云业务的调整后 EBITDA 利润率不断提高（24% -> 45% -> 50% 的进步）

我们从所有超大规模云计算公司的财报和 $CRWV

2026-08-12 12:24

的订单积压中已经看到了这种趋势，但很高兴看到它出现在 Weebius 的财报中。

🔄

Loading...