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原文：
So I'm looking through $MRVL SEC filings for fun over the weekend.

For constraints they're citing:

"advanced wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, and large body substrates."

which results in increased lead times, inability to meet demand, and increased costs...

-> So $TSM is Marvell's sole source foundry for all of our advanced process-node wafers according to their filings (no surprise there).

the less obvious one is Large Body Substrates to look at:

ABF substrates are already known, but lage body substrates might be a more acute bottleneck inside ABF.

There's..

Daeduck Electronics (353200)
Kinsus (3189) - "large-area high-layer-count ABF substrates" already up +496.07% YTD tho
LG Innotek (011070) - Large AI substrates with "Developing large AI substrates with a NA Big Tech customer, mass production beginning H2 26"
$ATS +370.12%

for the "lesser known" names outside of Ibiden, Nan Ya PCB, and Unimicron (but many have already rerated).

In May they worded it as supply challenges have occurred / may occur and large-body substrates were in a continuing tight environment.

Now it's "We are currently in a supply constrained environment."

Maybe there's more emerging players that I missed that I'll go hunting for.

But just disclosure on what acute bottleneck $MRVL is facing.

翻译：
所以我周末闲着翻看 $MRVL 的 SEC 文件。

他们提到的限制因素是：

“先进晶圆制造、先进封装和大尺寸基板。”

导致交期延长、无法满足需求、成本上升……

→ 根据文件显示，$TSM 是 Marvell 所有先进制程晶圆的唯一代工（这并不意外）。

较不明显的因素是大尺寸基板，需要关注：

ABF 基板已经为人所知，但大尺寸基板可能是 ABF 内更紧迫的瓶颈。

有……

Daeduck Electronics (353200)
Kinsus (3189) - “大面积高层数 ABF 基板”，今年迄今已上涨 +496.07%
LG Innotek (011070) - 大型 AI 基板，文中称“与北美大型科技客户合作开发大型 AI 基板，量产预计 26 年下半年开始”
$ATS +370.12%

这些是 Ibiden、Nan Ya PCB、Unimicron 之外的“较不为人知”公司（但许多已被重新评级）。

5 月时他们的表述是供应挑战已出现/可能出现，且大尺寸基板仍处于持续紧张的环境。

现在的说法是“我们目前正处于供应受限的环境”。

也许还有我遗漏的其他新兴玩家，我会去寻找。

这只是披露 $MRVL 正面临的急性瓶颈。

原文：
Okay just to simplify this:

There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers.

A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos.

Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato.

But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet..

Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer.

So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up.

So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots.

So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds.

But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price.

now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings.

Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027?

All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.

翻译：
好吧，简化一下：

有个吃得很多的家伙叫 $NVDA。Nvidia 只想从农民手里买高价土豆。

一个原本卖胡萝卜的土豆农场主 $MU…现在把耕地转向种土豆。

Nvidia 导致了严重的土豆荒，因为它吃得太多。于是其他种胡萝卜的公司，如 SK Hynix 和 Samsung，也把耕地容量转向种土豆。

但是……人们仍然需要吃东西，胡萝卜是日常饮食中健康的一部分。

现在除了像 “ESMT” 这样的老牌胡萝卜种植者，已经没有其他胡萝卜了。

于是因为大家都向 ESMT 购买胡萝卜，供不应求，价格上涨。

ESMT 需要更多胡萝卜种子（来自 PSMC）。但 PSMC 的胡萝卜种子库存已不足。

于是 PSMC 提高了种子价格向 ESMT 收费。

然而 ESMT 销售胡萝卜的价格远高于 PSMC 提价后的种子成本。

现在……ESMT 从卖胡萝卜中赚得足够，已实现 1.9 倍 P/E，超过七月的盈利。

ESMT 能在 2027 年之前继续卖这些胡萝卜吗？

其他所有农场主都认为可以，因为把有价值的土豆农场迁回胡萝卜农场既困难又缺乏动力。

wafer hike effects.

Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?

翻译：
Yep，ESMT（3006）在多个传统存储细分市场都有敞口。

其产品组合包括：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，所以这些老牌存储业务都覆盖到了。

如果你想看 ESMT 未来会受益的更大行业涨价情况：

1. SLC NAND：2026 年下半年约 +120–170%
2. DDR2：2026 年第三季度约 +35–40%
3. DDR4：2026 年第三季度 +30–40%（同时 DDR3 也在趋紧）
4. NOR：2026 年下半年高密度产品约 +60–65% 以上
5. MCP/eMCP：按我自己的估算，ESMT 可能环比约 +15–25%

官方拆分如下：

DDR2 + DDR3：约占营收 45%
DDR4/其他 DRAM：约占营收 10%
eMCP/MCP：约占 30%
模拟 + 其他：约占 15%

无论如何，关键还是持续时间/涨幅：

-> “主要全球 SLC NAND 供应商目前都没有计划在短期内新增产能。”
-> TrendForce 明确预计，库存消耗会让 SLC NAND 在第四季度进一步趋紧。
-> Winbond 撤出 DDR2，会让库存更紧张（而且他们的配额已经排到 2029-2030 年）
-> ESMT 管理层表示，市场的主要问题是供给，不是需求；公司晶圆代工配额只能覆盖客户订单的大约 60–70%
-> Nanya：“存储短缺可能持续到 2027 年底，且供需在 2028 年仍会偏紧”
-> Nanya 还明确表示，产能受限可能导致 DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4 和 DDR3 全面短缺。
-> 随着成熟制程资源被调去别处，ESMT 还把 eMCP 列为会受订单转移利好的产品之一
______

如果要我再说一遍我的看法：

我认为，尽管已经把 PSMC 45% 的晶圆涨价因素算进去了，但 ESMT 约 1.9 倍的 7 月年化运行市盈率仍然可能继续压缩。

行业评论支持这种强劲态势能持续到 2027 年。

更锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期协议（LTA）以及 2029-2030 年的可见度（但目前还没计入）。

我觉得市场要么根本不知道这件事，要么是把持续时间定价错了，要么就是高估了 PSMC 涨晶圆价格的影响。

也许在 LoL 经典版里，和排名第一的 Challenger“ESMT”双排，比和卡在原地上不去的“Micron”一起玩更有意思？

原文：
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments.

Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff.

If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to:

1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026.
2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026.
3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening)
4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density)
5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate

For official breakdown:

DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue
DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue
eMCP/MCP ≈30%
Analog + other ≈15%

Regardless, duration/hikes is the key:

-> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term."
-> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4.
-> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030)
-> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders
-> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028"
->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3.
-> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere
______

If I had to state my thoughts again:

I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes.

Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027.

Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in).

I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's

原文：
$MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year.

$RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB

翻译：
$MU: 从 $133B -> $1T+，一年内。

$RDDT 在两个月回调后：“垃圾股” https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB

目前浮盈约20点，止损移动到：2435

目前浮盈，止损移动到：2435