原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments.
Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff.
If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to:
1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026.
2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026.
3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening)
4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density)
5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate
For official breakdown:
DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue
DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue
eMCP/MCP ≈30%
Analog + other ≈15%
Regardless, duration/hikes is the key:
-> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term."
-> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4.
-> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030)
-> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders
-> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028"
->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3.
-> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere
______
If I had to state my thoughts again:
I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes.
Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027.
Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in).
I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments.
Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff.
If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to:
1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026.
2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026.
3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening)
4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density)
5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate
For official breakdown:
DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue
DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue
eMCP/MCP ≈30%
Analog + other ≈15%
Regardless, duration/hikes is the key:
-> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term."
-> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4.
-> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030)
-> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders
-> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028"
->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3.
-> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere
______
If I had to state my thoughts again:
I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes.
Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027.
Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in).
I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's
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