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2026-08-17 18:43

原文：
I've decided to name my next two pets Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers Semiconductors

翻译：
我决定把我的另外两只宠物分别命名为 Applied Optoelectronics 和 Sivers Semiconductors

2026-08-17 14:21

原文：
It's official, Unitree the 8000x+ retail oversubscribed humanoid company in China.

Is expected to go public in 2 days! So the 19th.

Opening is implied to be around ~$41.66B MC per derivatives, around +363.3% above its ~$9B IPO valuation.

Fun times for humanoids this week. https://t.co/yav4oRs2bO

翻译：
官方确认了，Unitree 这家在中国零售超额认购 8000 倍以上的人形机器人公司。

预计 2 天后上市！也就是 19 日。

根据衍生品推算，开盘市值大约会在 ~416.6 亿美元左右，较其 ~90 亿美元的 IPO 估值高出约 +363.3%。

本周人形机器人真是热闹。 https://t.co/yav4oRs2bO

2026-08-17 08:16

原文：
Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players.

Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026."

"Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production.

With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years."

Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...

翻译：
仅仅是对 $SNDK、$SKHY、$MU、Kioxia 和其他 NAND 厂商需求失衡的可见度有所增加。

Phison CEO 表示：“2027 年的产能限制将比 2026 年更加严重。”

“上游供应商需要从建厂和设备投资到实际生产，需要长达 4 年的时间。

由于需求增长迅速，而供应扩张有限，NAND 短缺可能会持续数年。”

我并不完全同意那些声称内存行业已经结束、尤其是 2026 年 NAND 瓶颈问题的人的观点...

2026-08-17 02:53

但是像太阳诱电（6976，披露：我持有该公司的股份）这样的公司拥有大量的MLCC市场份额，但在人工智能服务器领域的份额较小，将会从中受益。

有趣的是，我们现在才到2026年下半年，所以下一个主要的瓶颈应该会很有趣！ 🤔

2026-08-17 02:53

原文：
I think we're seeing AI server MLCC demand cause an interesting effect... with tightening capacity for consumer/general-purpose MLCCs.

If you get Vietnam flashbacks like I do to $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix -> Legacy DRAM:

My thesis is we'll see the same thing here maybe late H2, early 2027 with consumer/broad MLCCs.

From July 6th:

"the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production has begun spilling over into both the automotive and consumer markets."

July 28th:

"AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge"

Aug 12:

As [MLCC] capacity shifts from consumer grades to AI-oriented products... (Trendforce)

Aug 12:

China's electronics market channel checks found 22µF and 47µF MLCCs (used more broadly) out of stock. Then found and said certain manufacturers had stopped taking orders.

(for reference: Walsin said high-volume smartphone/PC products such as... 22µF, so it's broader MLCCs)

Obviously Samsung Electro-Mechanics/Murata are main beneficiaries of AI server MLCC ramp.

But companies with large market share of overall MLCCs like Taiyo Yuden (6976, disclosure: I have positions) with less AI server share, would be a major beneficiary of this.

Fun part is, we're only in H2 2026, so the next major bottleneck should be fun!

翻译：
我认为我们正在看到人工智能服务器对多层陶瓷电容器（MLCC）的需求产生一个有趣的效果... 这导致了消费者/通用MLCC的产能紧张。

如果你像我一样对越南有所回忆，那就是$MU / 三星 / SK海力士 -> 传统DRAM：

我的论点是，我们将在2027年下半年或2027年初看到同样的事情发生在消费者/广泛的MLCC上。

7月6日：

“面向人工智能的高端MLCC生产的挤出效应已经开始影响汽车和消费者市场。”

7月28日：

“人工智能需求推动日本和韩国MLCC供应商实现创纪录的月度出货量；消费级订单溢出继续激增”

8月12日：

随着MLCC产能从消费级产品转向面向人工智能的产品... （Trendforce）

8月12日：

中国电子市场渠道调查发现22µF和47µF MLCC（更广泛地使用）缺货。然后发现并表示某些制造商已经停止接受订单。

（参考：华新科技表示，高容量智能手机/PC产品，如... 22µF，因此是更广泛的MLCC）

显然，三星电机/村田是人工智能服务器MLCC增长的主要受益者。

2026-08-17 01:40

原文：
"Severe InP Shortage Triggers Largest Price Hike Ever" - $AXTI.

Suppliers have bluntly stated that "even if you have the money, you still may not be able to get the material" (lol).

- Industry sources revealed that InP substrate prices began rising in Q4 last year and was the fourth consecutive substrate price hike.

- The latest Q4 hike is expected to be >10%,

- Meanwhile, prices for epitaxial wafers made from those substrates have already been raised two times, and the market is moving toward a 3rd consecutive increase in Q4. (I also wrote a thesis on $IQE, which benefits here too).

Article states VPEC, Landmark, IET benefits (Taiwan centric reporting).

I did predict this last year... The bottleneck is real, but I do have higher expectations for price hikes that comes next.

Glad it's starting to play out.

翻译：
"严重的InP短缺引发史上最大涨价" - $AXTI。

供应商直言不讳地表示，即使你有钱，也不一定能获得材料（lol）。

- 行业消息人士透露，InP基板价格从去年第四季度开始上涨，这是第四次连续基板价格上涨。

- 预计最新的第四季度涨价将超过10%，

- 与此同时，使用这些基板制成的外延晶圆的价格已经上涨两次，市场正在走向第四季度的第三次连续上涨。（我也写了一篇关于$IQE的论文，它也将从中受益）。

文章指出VPEC、Landmark、IET将受益（以台湾为中心的报道）。

我去年就预测了这一点... 瓶颈是真实的，但我对未来涨价的预期更高。

很高兴事情开始按照预期发展。

2026-08-17 00:35

原文：
Stripe reportedly buys OpenRouter for $7 Billion.

I think their orchestration is easy to replicate and switch from. And there's very little moat.

But atm, OpenRouter has the userbase, valuable dataset, + momentum.

What's your take... Yay or Nay for the payments firm? https://t.co/AqOlKlwCzc

翻译：
据报道，Stripe 以 70 亿美元收购 OpenRouter。

我认为他们的编排很容易复制和切换，并且几乎没有护城河。

但目前，OpenRouter 拥有用户群、有价值的数据集和发展势头。

你怎么看…… 支付公司的这个决定是正确的还是错误的？ https://t.co/AqOlKlwCzc

2026-08-16 18:35

原文：
I think @elonmusk said it best:

“Robots don’t all need to be humanoid.

But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built.

Roger, roger.”

Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59

翻译：
我认为 @elonmusk 说得最好：

“并非所有机器人都需要具有人形。

但是，旨在取代人类劳动的通用机器人应该适应人类已经建造的世界。

收到，收到。”

个人而言，我预计 $TSLA 优化人（Optimus）形态将收敛到右侧的图像。 https://t.co/il7tND3n59

2026-08-16 11:15

原文：
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect.

Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming.

But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens?

Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity.

Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management"

1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%.

_

Nvidia in 2026:

Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme.

Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!"

Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027.

I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.

翻译：
我觉得人工智能投资比人们预期的要简单。

因为 $NVDA + Jensen 几乎告诉每个人接下来会发生什么。

但是不知为何，每一次，市场都在事实发生之前将其驳斥？

设想一下 2025 年的 Nvidia：收购 EML 和激光容量。

市场对此的反应是：“光子学是一个泡沫，就像量子一样！ ____ 公司是一个管理不善的骗局”

1 年后： $LITE 上涨 678%， $AAOI 上涨 475.12%， $COHR 上涨 260.7%， $AXTI 上涨 3,843.9%。

_

2026 年的 Nvidia：

收购 CW/EML 容量并签订长期协议。转向 800V。明确表示 CPO 即将到来，并宣布物理人工智能是下一个主题。

目前市场的反应是：“CW 股票只是迷因股票！800v 和 CPO 不会很快到来，人形机器人是不盈利的！”

是的……我们拭目以待 2027 年会发生什么。

我想我会把钱投在 Jensen/Nvidia 身上，因为他们是领先指标。

2026-08-16 08:08

原文：
Im typing this out as I eat ramen but just my current thoughts on “larger” names I like:

1. AlChip - $AMZN Trainium ramp right about now

2. $JBL - 1.6T LRO optical transceiver ramp and continued cycles should bring some surprise blended margin upside.

3. $SNDK - investor conference really cemented itself as durable + high margin revenue for next few years

4. $RDDT - now in S&P 500, this has always just been printing money quarter after quarter

5. $TSM - center of AI buildout basically.

6. $AMD - Helios + CPUs should bring another inflection point + copying your Nvidia-like Neocloud flywheel helps too (fundraise into buying AMD gpus)

7. $AMKR - pretty backstopped growth with $NVDA + $TSM contracts

8. $SMCI - ~$70B revenue ramp for 2027 is pretty insane.

9. Samsung - most profitable company in the world right now…

10. $GFS - US Gov took a material stake in it recently, and I do think CPO will help with revenue acceleration again.

Can’t give folks advice on what to buy or how to position unfortunately, this is just my personal list. There’s a few more on top obviously.

翻译：
我边吃拉面边写下这些，以下是我对一些“大型”公司的当前想法：

1. AlChip - $AMZN Trainium 正在推进

2. $JBL - 1.6T LRO 光学收发器的推广和持续的周期应该会带来一些惊喜的混合边际上升。

3. $SNDK - 投资者会议真正巩固了其作为未来几年耐用和高边际收入的公司的地位

4. $RDDT - 现在进入 S&P 500，这家公司一直每个季度都在赚钱

5. $TSM - 人工智能建设的中心。

6. $AMD - Helios + CPU 应该带来另一个转折点 + 复制 Nvidia-like Neocloud 飞轮也很有帮助（通过购买 AMD GPU 进行募资）

7. $AMKR - 有 $NVDA + $TSM 合同的增长相对稳定

8. $SMCI - 2027 年约 700 亿美元的收入增长非常惊人。

9. 三星 - 目前世界上最赚钱的公司……

10. $GFS - 美国政府最近在其中占有重要股份，我认为 CPO 将有助于收入加速。

不幸的是，我不能给大家建议该买什么或如何定位，这只是我的个人名单。当然还有更多。

2026-08-16 04:51

Anthropic据报道实现了14倍以上的年增长率和大约2.4倍的季度收入增长，第二季度收入超过115亿美元，预计2028年收入将达到1900-2000亿美元。

您的前沿实验室正在以极快的速度增长，如果它们不这样做就令人担忧。

- $NVDA据报道正在与SB Energy（Softbank子公司）谈判投资30亿美元，推动Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman等公司的计算机融资超过5000亿美元。$NVDA Feynman预计将在2028年下半年转移到TSMC A16 + SoIC + 自定义HBM + CPO。

每天都有更多的Nvidia新闻。

- $MSFT Maia 300 讨论了2027年TSM的300k单位容量，预计扩展到100万+。最快将在9月份推出。

$MRVL可能会从这个消息中受益。目前的情况是：

- 可能是GUC为Microsoft当前的ASIC增长做准备。
- 对于亚马逊来说，类似Alchip（我持有股份）的公司可能正在以2026年下半年为目标，推动$AMZN的ASIC计划...

因此，查看超大规模数据中心的ASIC增长时间表及其受益者可能是一个好主意。

- $TSM高级封装副总裁表示，“行业不仅会面临内存短缺，还会面临ABF基板供应紧张，在接下来的几年里”。

强调内存和ABF基板的瓶颈将持续几年。

甚至上游ABF基板设备供应商也很高兴，例如Eternal Precision，它使用真空压合设备，订单激增，工厂已满负荷运行，并且价格上涨了20%以上。

- $AMAT预计2026年高级封装收入将增长超过70%，高于之前的50%，并表示客户讨论现在已经延伸到2030年。

（我不太熟悉这家公司，但他们从2025年第四季度68亿美元到2026年第四季度102.5亿美元的增长率我觉得很有趣）。

- 谷歌在OCP APAC表示，传统的48V已经没有增长空间。$NVDA详细介绍了2026年下半年800VDC MGX兼容机架（时间表，Delta / Lite-On受益者）。

- 除了$SNDK，Nanya的LTAs已经覆盖了50%的产能。CXMT上个月签署了多年期DRAM协议，因此整个内存行业似乎都在遵循与大三家相同的剧本。

- 探针卡仍然是一个瓶颈，MPI（6223）表示，他们的探针卡容量仍然被充分利用，因为需求超过供应。

我已经介绍了CW激光器瓶颈和$AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE等公司的关系，但这又是一个有趣的话题。

- 一些MLCC/组件的交货时间已经达到36周（根据Nichidenbo的数据）。

您的三星电机、Taiyo Yuden、Murata等公司应该会很高兴听到这个消息。

总结：AI供应链正在迅速增长。

2026-08-16 04:51

face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"...

Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks.

Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes.

- $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030

(not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting)

- Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries)

- Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3.

- Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply.

Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one.

- some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo.

Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this.

TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.

翻译：
一些我觉得有趣的内容摘要：

- $SNDK 预计到2030年调整后毛利率为80%，营业利润率约为75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约为50%。
LTAs已经占2028年产量的2/3，合同最低收入达到930亿美元（当前市值约为2390亿美元）... 当您的收入/目标预计在4年后继续增长到2030年时，很难成为周期性股票。

- $CRWV 签署了到2029年的6年期合同，使用$NVDA A100 GPU。

对于Neoclouds（如Nebius/Iren），这是一个积极的信号，因为它反驳了例如Burry的折旧空头论点。

- 传统DRAM毛利率（例如Micron）预计到2027年将达到创纪录的95%，超过HBM毛利率（根据UBS的数据）。

如果预测正确，像Nanya/Winbond这样的传统DRAM玩家应该会大幅增长。

-

2026-08-16 04:51

原文：
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:

- $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day.

LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030.

- $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029.

For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis

- conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS

read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct.

- Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers.

Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt.

- $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028

Just more nvidia news every day

- $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September.

Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now:

- maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp.
- For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026...

So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries.

- $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to

2026-08-16 03:48

原文：
My weekend X feed is getting pretty sad. The main things I've seen were:

- Harvard endowment going degen with $SPCX, and + $AMD, $NVDA disclosing billions
- AI agent microcosm implications on RuneScape
- Hormuz getting renamed to Straight of America
- Jane Street getting wiped $15B by Citadel
- ____ who's hedge fund is up 30% every year buys a .00005% position my favorite stock _____!
- Bunch of noisy motivational quotes or bad takes on trading

翻译：
我的周末 X 动态变得相当令人沮丧。主要看到的内容是：

- 哈佛大学捐赠基金在 $SPCX 和 $AMD、$NVDA 上投入数十亿美元
- 人工智能代理对魔兽世界的微观影响
- 霍尔木兹海峡被改名为美国海峡
- Jane Street 被 Citadel 抹掉 150 亿美元
- 某人，其对冲基金每年上涨 30%，买下我最喜欢的股票的 0.00005% 的股份！
- 一堆嘈杂的励志名言或关于交易的糟糕看法

2026-08-15 05:42

原文：
说我归零的传闻未免也太夸张了吧哈哈

经历了7月份AI板块的崩盘后，我的YTD收益依然还有 +2,411.84% https://t.co/m49XcPRgC3

翻译：
说我归零的传闻未免也太夸张了吧哈哈
经历了7月份AI板块的崩盘后，我的今年至今收益依然还有 +2,411.84% https://t.co/m49XcPRgC3

2026-08-15 02:48

原文：
US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips.

$MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this...

Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market".

Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.

翻译：
美国政府敦促 $AAPL 不要购买中国内存芯片。

$MU、$SKHY 和三星对此消息感到高兴...

令人啼笑皆非的是，CXMT/YMTC 也在涨价，所以这并不是“充斥市场的廉价中国内存”。

苹果曾经在 AI 热潮之前拥有极大的供应商话语权。

2026-08-14 11:29

原文：
The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D

翻译：
$SHKY，三星，$SNDK，$MU 的内存瓶颈从未改变 anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D

2026-08-14 08:31

原文：
Donald Trump signs a proclamation to strengthen US supply chains for drones.

Benefiting U.S. drone component suppliers like $UMAC to UAS manufacturers like $ONDS + $RCAT.

TLDR, 100% tariffs on:
- UAS docking stations + certain critical components
- certain parts for >25 kg drones
- Drones >25 kg

25% tariffs on:
- broader components

UAS = Unmanned Aircraft System (don't have any positions in any above)

翻译：
唐纳德·特朗普签署了一项宣言，以加强美国无人机供应链。

这将惠及美国无人机零部件供应商，如 $UMAC，以及无人机制造商如 $ONDS 和 $RCAT。

总结，100% 关税适用于：
- 无人机停靠站和某些关键部件
- 某些超过 25 公斤无人机的零件
- 超过 25 公斤的无人机

25% 关税适用于：
- 更广泛的零部件

UAS = 无人机系统（无持仓）

2026-08-14 04:07

原文：
Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter.

- "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes.

At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028.

- "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month.

TLDR:
- SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027
- Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028

Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent.

Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.

翻译：
感觉玻璃基板的时间表至少又推迟了一个季度。

- 三星电子机械公司（Samsung Electro-Mechanics）因客户对原型的可靠性评估出现瓶颈，推迟了对半导体玻璃基板的投资。

在最近的第二季度财报发布会上，仅仅一个月后，公司就将运营开始时间修订为2028年。

- 据报道，SKC将玻璃基板的大规模生产推迟到2027年，目标是在年底完成最终验证（Trendforce），这是上个月的消息。

总结：
- SKC Absolics 从2026年下半年推迟到2027年上半年
- 三星从2027年下半年推迟到2028年上半年

并不是所有的时间表变化都是好消息，但玻璃核心基板的变化似乎即将到来。

一些玩家（如 $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027)）的产量增长可能会跟随这些大规模生产时间表。

2026-08-13 14:03

原文：
In another world, $SMCI would look more like $DELL?

If they didn't try smuggling $NVDA GPUs using hairdryers...

Regardless, SMCI guiding $65-72B FY 2027 revenue off a ~$25B MC is pretty crazy the more I look at it. https://t.co/FUZIojiMcc

翻译：
在另一个世界，$SMCI 的表现可能更像 $DELL？

如果他们没有尝试使用吹风机走私 $NVDA 的GPU……

无论如何，SMCI 预计 2027 财年收入为 650-720 亿美元，市值约为 250 亿美元，这看起来越来越疯狂。 https://t.co/FUZIojiMcc

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