face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"...
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"...
Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks.
Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes.
- $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030
(not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting)
- Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries)
- Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3.
- Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply.
Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one.
- some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo.
Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this.
TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
翻译：
一些我觉得有趣的内容摘要：
- $SNDK 预计到2030年调整后毛利率为80%，营业利润率约为75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约为50%。
LTAs已经占2028年产量的2/3，合同最低收入达到930亿美元（当前市值约为2390亿美元）... 当您的收入/目标预计在4年后继续增长到2030年时，很难成为周期性股票。
- $CRWV 签署了到2029年的6年期合同，使用$NVDA A100 GPU。
对于Neoclouds（如Nebius/Iren），这是一个积极的信号，因为它反驳了例如Burry的折旧空头论点。
- 传统DRAM毛利率（例如Micron）预计到2027年将达到创纪录的95%，超过HBM毛利率（根据UBS的数据）。
如果预测正确，像Nanya/Winbond这样的传统DRAM玩家应该会大幅增长。
-
Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks.
Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes.
- $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030
(not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting)
- Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries)
- Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3.
- Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply.
Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one.
- some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo.
Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this.
TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
翻译：
一些我觉得有趣的内容摘要：
- $SNDK 预计到2030年调整后毛利率为80%，营业利润率约为75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约为50%。
LTAs已经占2028年产量的2/3，合同最低收入达到930亿美元（当前市值约为2390亿美元）... 当您的收入/目标预计在4年后继续增长到2030年时，很难成为周期性股票。
- $CRWV 签署了到2029年的6年期合同，使用$NVDA A100 GPU。
对于Neoclouds（如Nebius/Iren），这是一个积极的信号，因为它反驳了例如Burry的折旧空头论点。
- 传统DRAM毛利率（例如Micron）预计到2027年将达到创纪录的95%，超过HBM毛利率（根据UBS的数据）。
如果预测正确，像Nanya/Winbond这样的传统DRAM玩家应该会大幅增长。
-
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