原文：
我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的…
翻译：
我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的……
我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的…
翻译：
我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的……
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觅信聚合
我的关注
原文：
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period.
Same opinion, even after $NVDA call.
And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium).
Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement.
Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory."
As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory:
With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash).
I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already).
I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung)
And I used that period to go overweight on photonics.
But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments.
Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3.
Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron.
Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
翻译：
我一直看多存储，尤其是 $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 这类标的，认为 2026-2027 年会是机会窗口。
即便在 $NVDA 财报后，我的看法也没变。
我一直在强调，高端存储需求是结构性的，而且会明显拉动运营利润，尤其是在伊朗紧张局势影响 LNG/氦气供应的背景下。
Nvidia 的财报再次印证了我们对极端需求的判断，因为其承诺额从 $119B 增至
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period.
Same opinion, even after $NVDA call.
And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium).
Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement.
Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory."
As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory:
With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash).
I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already).
I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung)
And I used that period to go overweight on photonics.
But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments.
Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3.
Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron.
Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
翻译：
我一直看多存储，尤其是 $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 这类标的，认为 2026-2027 年会是机会窗口。
即便在 $NVDA 财报后，我的看法也没变。
我一直在强调，高端存储需求是结构性的，而且会明显拉动运营利润，尤其是在伊朗紧张局势影响 LNG/氦气供应的背景下。
Nvidia 的财报再次印证了我们对极端需求的判断，因为其承诺额从 $119B 增至
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$279B，很大程度上是由存储采购推动的。
Nvidia 的 CFO 还说过：“我们正经历存储领域极端的定价环境。”
至于我自己做了什么，2026 年上半年我对存储是极度超配：
持有 $MU、$SNDK、Phison、$SIMO、Nanya、Macronix、Winbond，以及 $EWY / SK Hynix（HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统 DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。
除了 Samsung/SK Hynix 的多头仓位外，我把这些仓位都减了，因为我确实认为很多标的已经完成重估了（比如 Micron 已经从 $300 到 $1000+）。
我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经过去了，接下来就是等运营利润跟上来（尤其是 Samsung）。
而我也利用那段时间加仓了光子学。
不过我确实认为，我们正在看到一轮相对更新的下沉，进入 DDR2/DDR3 这类“更老一代的老旧存储”，而像 Winbond 这样的“传统”玩家正在退出其中一些细分市场。
当涨价最终达到环比 40-60% 时，这让我想起了 $SNDK 当年的极端行情，尤其是在 DDR2/DDR3 上。
这也是我开始建仓 ESMT（按 7 月年化计算，P/E 约 1.9x）和 Etron 的原因。
也许我们会在更下层的老旧存储链条里看到一次价格发现时刻（也可能我错了），但这就是我最近重点关注的方向。
Nvidia 的 CFO 还说过：“我们正经历存储领域极端的定价环境。”
至于我自己做了什么，2026 年上半年我对存储是极度超配：
持有 $MU、$SNDK、Phison、$SIMO、Nanya、Macronix、Winbond，以及 $EWY / SK Hynix（HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统 DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。
除了 Samsung/SK Hynix 的多头仓位外，我把这些仓位都减了，因为我确实认为很多标的已经完成重估了（比如 Micron 已经从 $300 到 $1000+）。
我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经过去了，接下来就是等运营利润跟上来（尤其是 Samsung）。
而我也利用那段时间加仓了光子学。
不过我确实认为，我们正在看到一轮相对更新的下沉，进入 DDR2/DDR3 这类“更老一代的老旧存储”，而像 Winbond 这样的“传统”玩家正在退出其中一些细分市场。
当涨价最终达到环比 40-60% 时，这让我想起了 $SNDK 当年的极端行情，尤其是在 DDR2/DDR3 上。
这也是我开始建仓 ESMT（按 7 月年化计算，P/E 约 1.9x）和 Etron 的原因。
也许我们会在更下层的老旧存储链条里看到一次价格发现时刻（也可能我错了），但这就是我最近重点关注的方向。
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原文：
I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006).
A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2).
Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E).
If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes:
Jan 2026: ~$16M (est)
Feb 2026: ~$17M
Mar 2026: ~$31M (est)
April 2026: ~$58M
May 2026: ~$60M (est)
June 2026: ~$67M (est)
Jul 2026: ~$110M
(Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported)
This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month).
And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2).
It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs?
Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well:
- Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash
- $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables
And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3.
*disclosure own positions, NFA
It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis?
Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E).
And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise.
Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?
翻译：
我想要捕捉 DDR2/DDR3 持续的瓶颈，于是发现了 ESMT（
I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006).
A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2).
Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E).
If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes:
Jan 2026: ~$16M (est)
Feb 2026: ~$17M
Mar 2026: ~$31M (est)
April 2026: ~$58M
May 2026: ~$60M (est)
June 2026: ~$67M (est)
Jul 2026: ~$110M
(Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported)
This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month).
And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2).
It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs?
Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well:
- Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash
- $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables
And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3.
*disclosure own positions, NFA
It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis?
Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E).
And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise.
Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?
翻译：
我想要捕捉 DDR2/DDR3 持续的瓶颈，于是发现了 ESMT（
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