原文:
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译(公开)
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译(公开)
原文:
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period.
Same opinion, even after $NVDA call.
And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium).
Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement.
Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory."
As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory:
With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash).
I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already).
I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung)
And I used that period to go overweight on photonics.
But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments.
Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3.
Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron.
Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
翻译:
我一直看多存储,尤其是 $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 这类标的,认为 2026-2027 年会是机会窗口。
即便在 $NVDA 财报后,我的看法也没变。
我一直在强调,高端存储需求是结构性的,而且会明显拉动运营利润,尤其是在伊朗紧张局势影响 LNG/氦气供应的背景下。
Nvidia 的财报再次印证了我们对极端需求的判断,因为其承诺额从 $119B 增至
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period.
Same opinion, even after $NVDA call.
And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium).
Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement.
Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory."
As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory:
With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash).
I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already).
I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung)
And I used that period to go overweight on photonics.
But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments.
Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3.
Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron.
Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
翻译:
我一直看多存储,尤其是 $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 这类标的,认为 2026-2027 年会是机会窗口。
即便在 $NVDA 财报后,我的看法也没变。
我一直在强调,高端存储需求是结构性的,而且会明显拉动运营利润,尤其是在伊朗紧张局势影响 LNG/氦气供应的背景下。
Nvidia 的财报再次印证了我们对极端需求的判断,因为其承诺额从 $119B 增至
Could not load this section.