年（甚至可能长达十年）压缩到 1-2 年（实现 80% 以上的陌生环境任务），这是一种显著的前景变化。
Comments
Unlock
觅信聚合
我的关注
原文：
Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI.
$NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up.
New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that:
- In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment"
- Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years"
- He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands.
- "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence"
- "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6"
Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20".
But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there.
But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.
翻译：
实体 AI + 类人机器人是 AI 的下一步发展。
$NVDA 在 CES 2025 的预测以及 Elon 对 $TSLA 的预测——未来十年将有 10 亿类人机器人——似乎在加速。
Unitree CEO 在对其类人机器人项目测试 GPT-6 后的新表述是：
- 8 月，在 GPT-6 发布前，Wang 表示行业最快可能需要两到三年，最慢可能需要十年才能迎来其“ChatGPT 时刻”。
- 现在，OpenAI 的 GPT-6 模型让人们期待突破可能在“一到两年内”出现。
- 他将该时刻定义为机器人能够在 80% 的陌生环境中，通过语音或文字指令完成约 80% 的任务。
- “比如说，明年发布的 GPT-7 模型有可能直接破解具身智能的问题”。
- “GPT-6 发布后，整个具身智能行业都被震动”。
但从机器人手部操作的一些基准来看，“在碗任务中，Astra 在 20 次试验中成功放置块体 19 次，而 Fable 5.1 为 8 次”。
而在拼图任务中，“Astra 在 20 次中完成插入 2 次，Fable 5.1 也是 2 次”……我们正在接近目标。
但从原本的 2-3
Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI.
$NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up.
New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that:
- In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment"
- Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years"
- He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands.
- "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence"
- "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6"
Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20".
But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there.
But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.
翻译：
实体 AI + 类人机器人是 AI 的下一步发展。
$NVDA 在 CES 2025 的预测以及 Elon 对 $TSLA 的预测——未来十年将有 10 亿类人机器人——似乎在加速。
Unitree CEO 在对其类人机器人项目测试 GPT-6 后的新表述是：
- 8 月，在 GPT-6 发布前，Wang 表示行业最快可能需要两到三年，最慢可能需要十年才能迎来其“ChatGPT 时刻”。
- 现在，OpenAI 的 GPT-6 模型让人们期待突破可能在“一到两年内”出现。
- 他将该时刻定义为机器人能够在 80% 的陌生环境中，通过语音或文字指令完成约 80% 的任务。
- “比如说，明年发布的 GPT-7 模型有可能直接破解具身智能的问题”。
- “GPT-6 发布后，整个具身智能行业都被震动”。
但从机器人手部操作的一些基准来看，“在碗任务中，Astra 在 20 次试验中成功放置块体 19 次，而 Fable 5.1 为 8 次”。
而在拼图任务中，“Astra 在 20 次中完成插入 2 次，Fable 5.1 也是 2 次”……我们正在接近目标。
但从原本的 2-3
Comments
Unlock
和 Anthropic 实现广泛的市场应用，它们的吸引力将大幅增强融资时的议价能力。
但他也提醒，全球利率高企可能使资本需求成为未来增长的制约因素。
- 他说，真正的驱动力在于，前沿 AI 公司能否开发出能够创造足够价值和回报的模型，从而证明基础设施扩张是合理的。（这很合理）
- 大多数公司都在词元上浪费钱。他还警告称，大多数公司花钱购买词元，就像孩子在电子游戏厅里乱花游戏币一样。
考虑到陈福阳掌管的是 $AVGO，这部分是他措辞最糟糕的地方。
但西方媒体的报道却将其简化为：
- “现在资本短缺，AI 投资者都是赌徒。”
实际上，在会议上，Broadcom CEO 是在为前沿实验室的估值辩护，并对 AI 基础设施需求发表了谨慎乐观的看法。
他只是将利率上升列为潜在制约因素，而更高的营收或更广泛的应用可以克服这一阻力。
断章取义地摘选言论，扭曲了他的真实表达。
简而言之：
- AI 半导体需求庞大且持续高企，半导体供应不足以满足市场需求。高投入至少还会持续 2 年
- OpenAI 的估值站得住脚；那些因为对公司抱有极端预期而卖出的人，就像赌场赌徒
- 陈福阳表示，市场误读了 OpenAI 的年化经常性收入，因为其基本面依然强劲
- 如果前沿实验室实现广泛应用并获得可观营收，其融资能力将得到增强，足以压过利率上升带来的阻力
$AVGO CEO 的许多言论其实非常讲究分寸，却被西方媒体的报道扭曲了。
💬 引用 Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）
看到韩国市场的 $SKHY / 三星跌成这样，真让人难过。
还得特别“感谢”$AVGO CEO 火上浇油……
他说 AI 投资者都是赌徒，还称企业级 AI 没能带来投资回报。https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s
原帖：https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) on X
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI.
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
https://twitter.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this\.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI\.
但他也提醒，全球利率高企可能使资本需求成为未来增长的制约因素。
- 他说，真正的驱动力在于，前沿 AI 公司能否开发出能够创造足够价值和回报的模型，从而证明基础设施扩张是合理的。（这很合理）
- 大多数公司都在词元上浪费钱。他还警告称，大多数公司花钱购买词元，就像孩子在电子游戏厅里乱花游戏币一样。
考虑到陈福阳掌管的是 $AVGO，这部分是他措辞最糟糕的地方。
但西方媒体的报道却将其简化为：
- “现在资本短缺，AI 投资者都是赌徒。”
实际上，在会议上，Broadcom CEO 是在为前沿实验室的估值辩护，并对 AI 基础设施需求发表了谨慎乐观的看法。
他只是将利率上升列为潜在制约因素，而更高的营收或更广泛的应用可以克服这一阻力。
断章取义地摘选言论，扭曲了他的真实表达。
简而言之：
- AI 半导体需求庞大且持续高企，半导体供应不足以满足市场需求。高投入至少还会持续 2 年
- OpenAI 的估值站得住脚；那些因为对公司抱有极端预期而卖出的人，就像赌场赌徒
- 陈福阳表示，市场误读了 OpenAI 的年化经常性收入，因为其基本面依然强劲
- 如果前沿实验室实现广泛应用并获得可观营收，其融资能力将得到增强，足以压过利率上升带来的阻力
$AVGO CEO 的许多言论其实非常讲究分寸，却被西方媒体的报道扭曲了。
💬 引用 Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）
看到韩国市场的 $SKHY / 三星跌成这样，真让人难过。
还得特别“感谢”$AVGO CEO 火上浇油……
他说 AI 投资者都是赌徒，还称企业级 AI 没能带来投资回报。https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s
原帖：https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) on X
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI.
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
https://twitter.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this\.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI\.
Comments
Unlock
原文：
So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material:
- "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand."
- "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ)
- "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.
He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal):
- Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times)
And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino.
- Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying:
"It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding on OpenAI.
- Hock Tan if OpenAI and Anthropic achieve widespread market adoption: their attractiveness would substantially strengthen their bargaining power when raising capital.
But cautioned elevated global interest rates could make capital requirements a constraint for future growth.
- The real driver, he said, is whether frontier AI companies can create models that generate enough value and returns to justify the buildout. (which is fair)
- Most companies are wasting money on tokens. He also warned that most companies just waste money spending tokens like kids in a video arcade.
This part was the most badly worded by Hock Tan
So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material:
- "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand."
- "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ)
- "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.
He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal):
- Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times)
And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino.
- Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying:
"It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding on OpenAI.
- Hock Tan if OpenAI and Anthropic achieve widespread market adoption: their attractiveness would substantially strengthen their bargaining power when raising capital.
But cautioned elevated global interest rates could make capital requirements a constraint for future growth.
- The real driver, he said, is whether frontier AI companies can create models that generate enough value and returns to justify the buildout. (which is fair)
- Most companies are wasting money on tokens. He also warned that most companies just waste money spending tokens like kids in a video arcade.
This part was the most badly worded by Hock Tan
Comments
Unlock
given he's running $AVGO.
But Western media commentary narrowed this down to:
- "Shortage of capital now, AI Investors are gamblers".
In the conference, Broadcom's CEO was actually defending frontier lab valuations and giving cautiously bullish statements about AI infrastructure demand.
While citing rising interest rates as a potential constraint that larger revenue or adoption could overcome.
Cherry picking quotes out of context disorts the actual messaging.
TLDR:
- Large and elevated AI semi demand, semi supply insufficient to meet market demand. At least another 2 years of elevated spend
- OpenAI valuations defensible, people who sell based on extreme expectations for the company are like casino gamblers.
- Tan stated markets had misinterpreted OpenAI's ARR because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.
- Frontier labs if they achieve widespread adoption / revenue would strengthen capital raising, which overpower headwinds from raising interest rates.
Lot of $AVGO CEO remarks looks heavily nuanced, which Western media coverage distored.
💬 引用 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI. https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s
原帖：https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
翻译：
所以我又花了些时间，查看了更多 DBS 会议资料：
- “两家半导体巨头 $AVGO 和 $INTC 都表示，AI 的突破将使芯片投资需求至少再维持 2 年高位，因为目前的供应不足以满足市场需求。”
- “目前的芯片产能已远远无法满足需求，$AVGO CEO 预计未来短缺还会进一步加剧。”（香港《信报财经新闻》）
- “谈到 OpenAI 时，陈福阳表示，市场误读了这家公司，因为其基本面依然强劲。
他认为，仅凭单一的短期数据点［$50B 年化经常性收入］就卖出的投资者，‘本质上与在赌场赌博的人没什么区别’。”（例如香港《信报财经新闻》）
- 在评论投资者对 OpenAI 最新营收预测的失望时，他表示，$50B 的年化经常性收入“单看这个，其实没那么糟”。（《商业时报》）
他还指出，投资者之所以失望，是因为不了解这项业务，并像赌场赌徒一样抱有过高预期。
- 陈福阳否认 OpenAI 估值过高。报道援引他的话称：
“这几乎就像他们在赌场里赌博。”
这句话指的是投资者对 OpenAI 抱有不切实际的预期，并且缺乏了解。
- 陈福阳表示，如果 OpenAI
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) on X
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI.
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
https://twitter.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this\.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI\.
But Western media commentary narrowed this down to:
- "Shortage of capital now, AI Investors are gamblers".
In the conference, Broadcom's CEO was actually defending frontier lab valuations and giving cautiously bullish statements about AI infrastructure demand.
While citing rising interest rates as a potential constraint that larger revenue or adoption could overcome.
Cherry picking quotes out of context disorts the actual messaging.
TLDR:
- Large and elevated AI semi demand, semi supply insufficient to meet market demand. At least another 2 years of elevated spend
- OpenAI valuations defensible, people who sell based on extreme expectations for the company are like casino gamblers.
- Tan stated markets had misinterpreted OpenAI's ARR because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.
- Frontier labs if they achieve widespread adoption / revenue would strengthen capital raising, which overpower headwinds from raising interest rates.
Lot of $AVGO CEO remarks looks heavily nuanced, which Western media coverage distored.
💬 引用 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI. https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s
原帖：https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
翻译：
所以我又花了些时间，查看了更多 DBS 会议资料：
- “两家半导体巨头 $AVGO 和 $INTC 都表示，AI 的突破将使芯片投资需求至少再维持 2 年高位，因为目前的供应不足以满足市场需求。”
- “目前的芯片产能已远远无法满足需求，$AVGO CEO 预计未来短缺还会进一步加剧。”（香港《信报财经新闻》）
- “谈到 OpenAI 时，陈福阳表示，市场误读了这家公司，因为其基本面依然强劲。
他认为，仅凭单一的短期数据点［$50B 年化经常性收入］就卖出的投资者，‘本质上与在赌场赌博的人没什么区别’。”（例如香港《信报财经新闻》）
- 在评论投资者对 OpenAI 最新营收预测的失望时，他表示，$50B 的年化经常性收入“单看这个，其实没那么糟”。（《商业时报》）
他还指出，投资者之所以失望，是因为不了解这项业务，并像赌场赌徒一样抱有过高预期。
- 陈福阳否认 OpenAI 估值过高。报道援引他的话称：
“这几乎就像他们在赌场里赌博。”
这句话指的是投资者对 OpenAI 抱有不切实际的预期，并且缺乏了解。
- 陈福阳表示，如果 OpenAI
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) on X
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI.
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit)
https://twitter.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2109852646484201736
Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this\.
Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…
Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI\.
Comments
Unlock
Loading...