原文: Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI.
$NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up.
New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that:
- In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment"
- Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years"
- He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands.
- "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence"
- "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6"
Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20".
But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there.
But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.