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2026-07-04 21:44

原文：
Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers".

Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market.

Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance...

"Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority."

This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoiding 600,000 future hires with robots.

But it's very interesting to see the shift in worker roles to robot support. Maybe $DASH to $UBER to $MELI, we'll all start to see this rollout following China.

There's a lot of retail disbelief over humanoid/robotics commercialization. But feels like the direction industry is heading down is pretty clear.

翻译：
日经 - 电商巨头 $JD 首席执行官警告“机器人将取代 70 万快递员”。

据金融时报早先的报道：该公司的 70 万名快递人员将被机器人取代，这凸显了快速自动化如何成为中国已经十分严峻的就业市场的新威胁。

刘强东透露，该公司已与大约 120 所学校签订合同，以重新培训其快递员工，使他们能够转入新的角色，如机器人维修和维护……

“北京已经开始将人工智能对就业的影响作为国家优先事项进行跟踪。”

这跟其他公司的战略报告类似，如 $AMZN，通过使用机器人避免未来 60 万人的招聘。

但看到工人角色转变为机器人支持的趋势很有趣。也许 $DASH、$UBER、$MELI 等公司都会开始在中国之后跟进这一趋势。

目前，零售业对人形机器人/机器人商业化存在很多怀疑。但感觉行业的发展方向已经相当明确。 🤖💻📦

2026-07-04 19:20

原文：
an apple a day keeps the bottleneck away

翻译：
一天一个苹果，远离瓶颈期 🍎💪

2026-07-04 18:02

原文：
UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議業界揭其劣跡許多公司慘遭魔手":

- SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse.

- The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF.

- The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report

$HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.

翻译：
UDN 财经报道 "殺翻光通讯后 SemiAnalysis 惹议业界揭其劣迹许多公司慘遭魔手":

- SemiAnalysis 在六月发布了一份报告，对低产量和延迟的基础上质疑CPO的发布时机，这导致了光通讯行业的崩溃。

- 之后，该机构与Tema合作推出了一个光通讯ETF。

- ETF中以交易代码LAZR持有的股份，恰好是报告中被负面提及的光通讯股票

$HIMX和$LITE，这两只股票在他们的文章"Powered Down, Lights Off"中被特意负面提及，在光通讯行业崩溃后被SemiAnalysis和Tema的新ETF购买。

2026-07-04 10:23

原文：
Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding.

3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity.

People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years.

And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids.

You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI?

If you see past the "assistive robotics" public image framing to prevent protest, it's clear the goals is maximizing, opex efficiency.

The main areas I think are safe however are regulation bound (eg. Medicine), ultra specialized labor, or require human/emotional connections.

But I think you'll be blown away by the rate of change when frontier technologies become national security races between US and China... especially when China is currently in the lead.

翻译：
兄弟，当我第一次尝试ChatGPT，大约在2023年，我觉得LLM在编码方面很糟糕。

3年后，Mythos被认为是网络安全领域的现代“核武器”。

人们一直说人类无法完成某些任务，比如管道安装或直流电线安装。说实话，这是关于未来几年会发生什么。

很明显，对我和风险投资者来说，我们已经到了一个转折点，即：你认为只有人类才能完成的大部分劳动，很快就可以被机器人/人形机器人取代。

你已经在内部策略中看到这一点了：还记得$AMZN泄露的计划，想要通过使用机器人（如$CCXI）来避免雇用60万工人吗？

如果你看穿“辅助机器人”的公众形象包装，以防止抗议，你会发现目标是最大化运营效率。

然而，我认为安全的领域是那些受到监管限制的领域（例如医学），或需要超专业劳动力，或者需要人类/情感联系的领域。

但是，当边缘技术成为美国和中国之间的国家安全竞争时，我想你会被变化的速度惊呆，尤其是当中国目前处于领先地位时。

2026-07-04 07:19

原文：
TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists?

Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography…

It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day.

If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute? https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

翻译：
今天我才知道浮动直流和海洋计算存在？

显然，它具有免费冷却功能，并且适合地理位置狭窄的地方……

有一天，乘坐游轮，途经一串串 $NBIS 或三星浮动 AI 数据中心，将会是一件很奇怪的事情。

如果这种事情有朝一日像轨道计算一样流行起来呢？ https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

2026-07-04 00:08

原文：
I'm bearish on humans.

Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production.

No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals.

And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.

翻译：
我对人类持悲观态度。

如果人形机器人以低于15,000美元的价格实现大规模生产，那么很难想象人们还能保住工作。

不需要保险，也不会有摩根大通的人力资源丑闻。

而且它们可以做任何人能做的事情，但做得更好，并且可以24小时不间断工作。

2026-07-03 14:01

大型模型/LLM：~23.56亿美元
2. 人工智能基础设施+技术层：~15.74亿美元
3. 体现智能/物理人工智能：~13.36亿美元
4. AIGC应用：~8.79亿美元
5. 自主驾驶+其他前20名集群：~3.82亿美元，但与上述不完全相同。

一些备注：
- “早期纯基础模型资金基本上已经关闭”。
看起来更多的资金只是被投入到现有的领导者和世界模型公司中。我的猜测是，我们可能会在美国看到类似的Anthorpic/OpenAI整合。

- “世界模型已经成为早期投资的最大共识”。

几个月前，我曾说过4D人工智能/世界模型将是最有趣的发展方向，并指出$AEVA可能是一个潜在的投资机会。但是，没有纯粹的投资机会。可能我们将等待下一次IPO，可能是在明年上半年。

- AIGC应用领域是人工智能技术商业化最成熟的领域

“人工智能生成内容的商业化已经成熟，但还没有明确的赢家”。

这是有道理的。在美国，有类似Grok Imagine、Google Nano Banana等公司，但还没有明确的赢家，尤其是在视频领域。

总结：继续投资人工智能基础设施/半导体供应链。大量资本涌入物理人工智能/体现大脑/人形机器人+世界模型。

围绕领先的前沿模型公司进行整合。

个人认为，这验证了我一直关注的Agility Robotics和物理人工智能玩家（例如leaderdrive、harmonic等）在公开市场中的地位...

作为新的潜在机会，资本正在转向这些领域。但遗憾的是，目前还没有世界模型的纯粹投资机会。

2026-07-03 14:01

原文：
Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets:

Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models.

1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B
2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B
3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B
4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B
5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above.

Some notes:
- "Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed".
Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenAI consolidation.

- "World models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment."

I said months ago 4D AI/World Models would be the most interesting moving forward, and called out $AEVA as potential exposure. But there's not exactly any pure play exposure. But probably next we'll wait for the next IPOs here in this sector maybe H1 next year.

- AIGC application sector is the most mature for AI technology commercialization

"Artificial Intelligence Generated Content commercialization is mature but no clear winner yet".

Makes sense. in the US there's stuff like Grok Imagine, Google Nano Banana, etc. no clear winner too. especially for video.

_

TLDR: Continued funding into AI infrastructure/semiconductor supply chains. Huge capital rotation influx into physical AI / embodied brain / humanoids + world models from capital inflow.

Consolidation around leading frontier model companies.

Personally just validated what I've been focusing on with Agility Robotics and physical AI players (eg. leaderdrive, harmonic, etc) in public markets...

As new potential opportunities in terms of capital rotation. But sadly no world model pure play exposure yet.

翻译：
一些来自中国私募股权市场的公开市场信息：

机构正在大量投资物理人工智能和世界模型。

1.

2026-07-03 10:09

原文：
So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain:

- Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM).

Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital.

Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027.

So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries.

Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp".

These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp.

Regardless, just an update on developments.

翻译：
对上游玻璃基板供应链的积极解读：

- 住友化学和三星电子机械正式在韩国成立合资公司（GlaSSEM），负责玻璃核心基板业务。

主要内容是时间表/资金已经确定：三星/东宇合资公司计划在2027年下半年实现“全面商业化”，计划资本为4821亿韩元。

我认为“全面商业化”是需要强调的关键词，因为这意味着时间表比预期更快，而不是从2027年下半年开始逐步生产或早期生产。

那么... TGV/LIDE 以及我持有的 $LPK / E&R 和 Onto 等公司在产量方面只是可能受益的行业中的几个例子。

由于像 LPK 这样的公司过去曾表示：“80% 的客户是主要全球玩家，他们已经选择了 LPKF 设备”，并且目标是“TGV 在玻璃核心扩产中占据 70% 的 LIDE 市场份额”。

这些玩家通常也会提前实现收入，因为在资本支出周期中，设备订单会在实际扩产之前就到来。

无论如何，这只是对发展的更新。

2026-07-03 06:53

原文：
Be SemiAnalysis:

- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.

Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted

- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

翻译：
作为半分析师：

- 发表了一篇严厉批评的文章，讨论CPO延迟和光学公司估值，导致市场崩盘。

哪些$NVDA、分析师团队和主要光学公司进行了反驳

- 在光学公司股价下跌40-60%后推出了机构光子ETF。

2026-07-03 06:30

原文：
This is a conspiracy theory of mine: but Jensen hates $AVGO.

Feels like all of $NVDA allied ASIC challengers…

$MRVL, Mediatek, AlChip, GUC (nvlink) and others are all slowly chipping away Broadcom’s ASIC share.

This is done discretely with Nvidia support.

Just like Neoclouds offerings last year as a defacto extension to place create moat against CSPs custom ASICs with Nvidia’s ecosystem.

Obviously overall ASIC market goes up, but many of these challengers feel like they’re taking on more hyperscaler-adjacent projects. Probably supported by Nvidia..

NFA think this would be an interesting 2 year trade opportunity, but IMO past 2030, I’d expect many like Google to bring design in house.

Nvidia clearly is the kingmaker… so anything they kinda touch gets brought up such as that next Marvell $1T company comment.

翻译：
这是我的一个阴谋论：但 Jensen 恨 $AVGO。

感觉所有 $NVDA 的 ASIC 竞争对手……

$MRVL、MediaTek、AlChip、GUC（nvlink）和其他公司都在悄悄地蚕食 Broadcom 的 ASIC 市场份额。

这一切都是在 Nvidia 的支持下悄悄进行的。

就像 Neocloud 去年的产品一样，作为事实上的扩展来对抗 CSP 的自定义 ASIC，利用 Nvidia 的生态系统。

显然，整个 ASIC 市场正在增长，但许多这些竞争对手感觉像是在承接更多与超大规模云服务商相关的项目。可能是由 Nvidia 支持的……

不具备专业知识，但我认为这将是一个有趣的 2 年交易机会，但在 2030 年之后，我预计像 Google 这样的公司将会将设计工作带回内部。

Nvidia 很明显是王者…… 所以他们涉足的任何事情都会被提及，比如关于下一个 Marvell 1 万亿美元公司的评论。

2026-07-02 21:32

原文：
$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR.

"Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96

翻译：
$AXTI 与 $COHR 签订 3 年晶圆协议。
“Coherent 将向 AXT-Tongmei 预付 22,288,500 美元，以换取保证的供应能力。” https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96

2026-07-02 20:37

原文：
Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too?

Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.

翻译：
有人也像我一样，脑子里总有一种挥之不去的想法吗？

每当我看到 $MRVL 下跌时，我就会想起 Jensen 的那句话 “下一家 1 万亿美元公司”

2026-07-02 19:33

原文：
Just this hour:

BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI.

I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd

翻译：
就在这一小时内：

蓝色山峰资本管理公司（BlueCrest Capital Management）及其亿万富翁创始人迈克尔·普拉特（Michael Platt）已经越过门槛，披露了他们在 $CCXI 中的 5.6% 股份。

我就知道 Agility Robotics 会很受欢迎…… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd

2026-07-02 19:13

原文：
Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again…

UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”.

Regardless:

$AEHR down -18.3%
$AAOI down -17.13%
$SIVEF down -15.4%
$SNDK down -14.8%
$TER down -13.8%
$GLW down -11.4%
$MRVL down -11.2%
$LITE down -10.2%
$NBIS down -7.8%

Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks.

FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex…

Markets are stupid sometimes.

翻译：
每次看到半导体市场因彭博社报道而崩盘，总是很有趣……

瑞银分析师对 $META 报告的评论：“这不是什么新消息”。

无论如何：

$AEHR 下跌 -18.3%
$AAOI 下跌 -17.13%
$SIVEF 下跌 -15.4%
$SNDK 下跌 -14.8%
$TER 下跌 -13.8%
$GLW 下跌 -11.4%
$MRVL 下跌 -11.2%
$LITE 下跌 -10.2%
$NBIS 下跌 -7.8%

我仍然对早些时候彭博社关于AMD/Nvidia全球出口管制的误导性报道导致半导体股崩盘感到创伤后心理压力。

注意：如果Meta过度建设了产能并可以削减资本支出，他们不会随意购买价值480亿美元以上的新云合同……

有时候市场很愚蠢。

2026-07-02 17:58

原文：
Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo.

Personal Rankings:

1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI
2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company)
3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now.

With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player.

Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors.

NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization.

No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV:

Which would value Figure at $156B...

While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today.

So my personal preference is $CCXI.

翻译：
Agility Robotics 在商业化方面是美国最顶尖的人形机器人公司。

个人排名：

1. 通过 $CCXI 的 Agility Robotics
2. $TSLA 的 Optimus （市值超过 1 万亿美元的公司）
3. Figure 的估值为 2025 年的 390 亿美元，可能现在已经更高了。

特斯拉可能会在一年内占据领先地位。因此，以 16 美元的价格，你已经拥有了一个市值约为 40 亿美元的前期人形机器人公司。

这已经进入了 $AMZN 和 $MELI 的范围（最初的理想用例，在转向通用之前），其中 $AMZN、$NVDA、Softbank、富士康和其他公司都是投资者。

非专业建议，但以这样的估值... 现在有机会直接接触到第一个人形机器人公司，它可能在商业化方面比 Figure 更进一步。

对 Robostrategy 没有恶意，但它的价格已经超过了 4 倍以上的净资产值：

这将使 Figure 的估值达到 1560 亿美元...

而 Agility 的估值仅为 40 亿美元。

所以我的个人偏好是 $CCXI。

2026-07-02 16:57

原文：
Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.

Quantum barely has any revenue.

$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)

$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.

Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.

So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.

Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).

Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.

Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.

Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back.

But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out.

Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.

翻译：
光子技术有实际的收入数据支持，并且得到了$NVDA推崇的架构转变。

量子技术几乎没有任何收入。

$LITE已经售出了未来2年的产品（根据$POET的年度股东大会），可能会持续到2029年。Lumentum的生产能力已经非常紧张，以至于他们从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（从财报中可以看出）。

$COHR受到瓶颈限制，所以他们从Lumentum购买外部模态锁定激光器。

然后，$AAOI带来了“美国制造”的独立连续波生产能力，预计到2027年上半年每季度收入将达到14亿美元，今天的市值仅为930亿美元。

因此，像$AAOI或$SIVE这样的独立玩家现在拥有的所有连续波生产能力可能都会变得稀缺。

根据Trendforce的报告，许多其他超大规模企业已经开始了长期协议讨论。像$AMD这样的玩家目前正在与$AAOI（通过Rosenblatt渠道）等玩家进行谈判。

2026-07-02 16:57

从主题上讲，未来两年是9倍的市场规模，达到1540亿美元（根据高盛的报告），尤其是规模扩大/规模提升的美元内容增加了16倍/45倍。

然后还有来自$META的整体主题人工智能下降，这被广泛误解，因为人们混淆了“过剩容量”的含义。正如瑞银所提到的，Meta计划提供云服务并不是新消息。

彭博社只是有发布信息的倾向，这些信息会导致半导体行业（如Nvidia出口管制几个月前）出现灾难性下跌。

但是我熟悉我所持有的东西，所以我相信这些数字最终会实现。

尤其是当所有主要玩家都售罄时，基本面最终会赶上。

2026-07-02 10:34

原文：
I just realized Boston Dynamics CEO shared the same sentiment:

“Robotics is next. America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”.

However, currently China accounts for 54%+ of all global robotics deployments.

- calls for Internet scaleable database of physical world (kinda got reminded of Niantic that has a huge dataset from Pokemon Go)

- dedicated National robotics strategy to compete against China’s leadership in this space

- ISO + regulation for robotics safety

This is all high level:

But my prioritize thought process is how do we support and scale a Made in USA supply chain for robotics/humanoids?

I’ve been hammering home rare earths for the longest time, that the US isn’t doing enough to subsidize or scale this industry.

But another thing to take note is subsidies for components, forcing $TSLA and others to use Chinese suppliers over Western ones, even if assembly is done in USA… to keep costs down.

Which is why I’ve liked Agility Robotics $CCXI since they source 75% of parts from the US, despite higher BOM to start out with.

Regardless it’s pretty clear this Robotics is coming and becoming a national security priority:

From the days of backflipping humanoid YT videos.

翻译：
我刚刚意识到波士顿动力公司的CEO也表达了相同的观点：

“机器人技术是下一个发展方向。美国接下来的250年将由机器人建设”。

然而，目前中国占全球机器人部署的54%以上。

- 呼吁建立一个可以扩展到互联网规模的物理世界数据库（这让我想起了Niantic，它从Pokémon Go中获得了大量数据）

- 制定国家机器人战略，以与中国在这一领域的领导地位竞争

- 机器人安全的ISO标准和法规

这些都是高层次的想法：

但我的优先思考过程是如何支持和扩大美国本土的机器人/人形机器人供应链？

我一直强调稀土元素的重要性，认为美国没有足够地补贴或扩大这一行业。

但需要注意的是，对零部件的补贴，迫使$TSLA和其他公司使用中国供应商而不是西方供应商，即使组装是在美国完成的……以降低成本。

这就是为什么我喜欢Agility Robotics $CCXI，因为他们从美国采购75%的零部件，尽管最初的成本更高。

无论如何，很明显机器人技术即将到来，并成为国家安全的优先事项：

从机器人后空翻的YouTube视频时代开始。 🤖💻

2026-07-02 09:16

原文：
$IREN founders award themselves $1.14B+ of stock based compensation.

Vesting over 4 years timeframe. This is amid their active $6,000,000,000 ATM.

I’m not going to say anything but I think it speaks for itself. https://t.co/IoCHVxVIXs

翻译：
$IREN 创始人为自己授予 114 亿美元以上的股票基于的补偿。
分 4 年解锁。这是在他们活跃的 60 亿美元 ATM 期间。
我不想说什么，但我想这已经说明了一切。 https://t.co/IoCHVxVIXs

🔄

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