觅信聚合

我的关注

2026-08-06 09:58

原文：
I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life.

It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD.

And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”

翻译：
我仍然坚信没有人知道如何正确发音或讨论 $AAOI 在现实生活中。

它的名字比 $TSM 或 $AMD 多一个字母，难以顺口说出来。

而且没有人会对朋友说“哇，我喜欢应用光电子！”

2026-08-06 07:14

原文：
Been awhile since I've posted random thoughts!

Will continue now, just been out for few rounds of surgery, so wanted to post less frequently during recovery window.

Also working on a few special things for followers that I'll announce soon enough. But might take some time.

Anyway something interesting that I came across today was that Unitree is now trading at an implied $29.3B MC on derivative markets.

As seen with $CBRS and $SPCX IPOs, pre-IPO perpetuals map surprisingly close to opening price? (eg. cerebras was ~1.3% opening price, $155 vs. $150 for spacex). On a side note, I feel like blockchain did find a new compelling use case...

Anyway, +370%/4.7x - +414%/5.1x, on the expected IPO target at $5.7B-$6.2B this month. Would be pretty large price discrepancy.

And might might a halo effect around the robotics sector if it goes well maintains valuations.

Just some example of robotic supply chains players are Leaderdrive, Harmonic Drive, $OUST and others (NFA, just putting that out there).

I also feel like $SPCX was a bad example since RocketLab, ASTS all rose along with it, and fell.

But from what I've seen, normally sector leaders bring up valuations of other players, as seen with $LITE and broader optical ecosystem.

As for timeline dates on humanoid leaders:
Unitree ~Later this month is official timeline eg. August 20th, since aug 10th is subscriptions, 14th is final offering results.
Agility Robotics ~Oct-Dec would be my guess (Q4 targeted from investor timelines).

翻译：
已经有一段时间没有发表随机的想法了！

现在我会继续发表，之前因为手术休息了一段时间，所以在恢复期间减少了发帖频率。

同时，我正在为关注者准备一些特别的事情，稍后会宣布。但可能需要一些时间。

无论如何，我今天发现了一件有趣的事情：Unitree 在衍生品市场上的估值已经达到 293 亿美元。

从 $CBRS 和 $SPCX 的 IPO 中可以看到，IPO 前的永续合约价格与开盘价出奇地接近（例如，Cerebras 的开盘价约为 1.3%，155 美元 vs. 150 美元用于 SpaceX）。顺便说一下，我觉得区块链找到了一个新的令人信服的用例……

无论如何，预计 IPO 目标价为 57 亿美元至 62 亿美元，价格差异可能会很大，达到 +370%/4.7 倍至 +414%/5.1 倍。

如果 IPO

2026-08-06 07:14

成功，可能会对机器人领域产生光环效应，维持估值。

机器人供应链领域的一些例子包括 Leaderdrive、Harmonic Drive、$OUST 等（免责声明，只是提一下）。

我觉得 $SPCX 是一个不好的例子，因为 RocketLab、ASTS 都随着它的涨落而变化。

但是从我所见，通常行业领导者会带动其他玩家的估值，如 $LITE 和更广泛的光学生态系统。

至于人形机器人领导者的时间表：
Unitree 预计本月晚些时候会有官方时间表，例如 8 月 20 日，因为 8 月 10 日是订阅截止日期，14 日是最终发行结果。
Agility Robotics 预计会在 10 月至 12 月之间（投资者时间表目标为第四季度）。

2026-08-06 04:13

原文：
The unexpected thing of the week... Was $AEVA becoming a CPO/NPO optical source player.

For background: $SIVE is viewed as the high confidence CW DFB laser supplier to Aeva (which is known for lidar).

Today, Aeva reacted with +18.26% AH on news that they signed a JDA with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027, production ramp 2028.

"Optical Connectivity will leverage that foundation along with Aeva’s EXISTING high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain" for:

- ELSFP (similar to O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE), with Sivers as the likely CW laser + potential amplifier supplier

- On-chip integrated light source (likely $SIVE DFB + Aeva PIC on the architecture/integration side)

TLDR: New TAM and a hyperscaler programs for Aeva for CPO/NPO, positive read through for upstream suppliers like $SIVE.

翻译：
本周最意外的事情是... $AEVA 成为 CPO/NPO 光源供应商。

背景：$SIVE 被认为是 Aeva（以激光雷达闻名）的高可靠性连续波分布反馈激光器供应商。

今天，Aeva 在宣布与光学引擎玩家签署 JDA 以便于在 2027 年下半年在大型超级计算机中部署，2028 年开始量产后，股价上涨了 18.26%。

"光连接将利用这一基础以及 Aeva 现有的高容量制造和代工供应链"，用于：

- ELSFP（类似于 O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE），Sivers 很可能成为连续波激光器和潜在放大器供应商

- 芯片集成光源（可能是 $SIVE 的分布反馈激光器 + Aeva 的光子集成电路在架构/集成方面）

总结：Aeva 在 CPO/NPO 领域获得了新的市场机会和超级计算机项目，对于上游供应商如 $SIVE 来说是一个积极的信号。

2026-08-06 01:25

原文：
Funniest callout of the year from $VIAV on CPO timelines:

"Well, there's been a lot of industry talk [about delays], like, 'Oh, because the yield is going to be slower.'

That's all nonsense. CPO and all that thing is moving forward"

They stated that Yes there's always issues, but the process is being improved and things are getting better.

To follow up on that, the CEO stated:

- Viavi has POs for CPO-testing activity
- “We’re already getting [CPO revenue] this quarter, and probably in December it will start accelerating.”

On a side note, they also stated, 1.6T is "ramping very quickly", should reach parity with 800g next year, and signaled longer tail for 800g demand.

TLDR: Seeing CPO test revenues hit for $VIAV to $FORM around now. Nvidia also stated switch-side CPO for scale out and scale across has entered mass production earlier.

As for scale up timelines, early production should be H2 2027 for some players, with other CPO players Ayar stating 2028 is the volume inflection period.

Basically, all the timelines seem to be the same as before and revenue is starting to hit testing players first.

翻译：
今年最搞笑的揭露来自 $VIAV 关于 CPO 时间表的讨论：

“业内有很多关于延迟的讨论，例如，‘哦，因为产量会更慢。’

这些都是无稽之谈。CPO 和所有相关事务正在推进”

他们表示，虽然总会有问题，但流程正在改进，事情正在变得更好。

为了跟进这一点，CEO 表示：

- Viavi 已经有 CPO 测试活动的订单
- “我们已经在这个季度获得了 [CPO 收入]，并且可能在 12 月份会加速”

顺便提一下，他们还表示，1.6T 正在“迅速增长”，应该在明年达到与 800g 的平价，并预示着 800g 需求的更长尾部。

总结：$VIAV 和 $FORM 即将看到 CPO 测试收入。Nvidia 也表示，用于规模扩展和横向扩展的交换机侧 CPO 已经进入量产阶段。

至于规模扩展时间表，一些玩家预计早期生产将在 2027 年下半年开始，其他 CPO 玩家 Ayar 表示 2028 年是量产拐点。

基本上，所有时间表似乎与之前相同，收入正开始影响测试玩家。

2026-08-05 00:16

原文：
$RKLB has been awarded a $397M contract by the US Space Force.

To build out Flatellite satellites and launch them on their Medium Lift rocket, Neutron. https://t.co/0jsPPf9ucI

翻译：
$RKLB 已获得美国太空军的一份 3.97 亿美元合同。
为了建造 Flatellite 卫星并使用中型运载火箭 Neutron 发射它们。 https://t.co/0jsPPf9ucI

2026-08-04 12:11

原文：
Bessent says: "There may be deal Tuesday or Wednesday to open Strait of Hormuz with freedom of movement"

I think markets might like the sound of this. https://t.co/qXc8u2050N

翻译：
贝森特说：“星期二或星期三可能会有协议开放霍尔木兹海峡，实现自由通行”

我认为市场可能会喜欢听这个消息。 https://t.co/qXc8u2050N

2026-08-04 11:10

原文：
A very material catalyst came about for Western supply chains from $AAOI, $SIVE / Jabil, to $LITE and Coherent:

The Trump administration is drafting a ban of new Chinese optical transceivers and DC devices.

Which would likely hit China’s Innolight, Eoptolink, and other Chinese optical interconnect supply chains.

"The agency would ban all imports of new transceiver models and then exempt many ⁠non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions"

We'll likely see a larger bifurcation of supply chains with even greater importance put on Western players.

翻译：
一个非常重要的催化剂出现在西方供应链中，从 $AAOI，$SIVE / Jabil 到 $LITE 和 Coherent：

特朗普政府正在起草一项禁止新型中国光学收发器和直流设备的禁令。

这可能会影响中国的 Innolight，Eoptolink 和其他中国光学互连供应链。

"该机构将禁止所有新型收发器的进口，然后豁免许多非中国供应商的限制"

我们可能会看到供应链的分化加剧，西方玩家将变得更加重要。

2026-08-04 02:35

原文：
SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM.

$SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026.

- Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested

- industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage

- Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery

Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources.

Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.

翻译：
SK Hynix，$MU 和三星已经售出了2027年的DRAM/HBM容量。

$SNDK，三星，美光当前年度的NAND容量已经售罄，预计京瓷和SK Hynix将在2026年8月之前完成分配。

- 客户只被分配了他们最初请求的60-70%的量

- 业内人士指出，2027年将进入内存短缺的最严重时期

- 分配量大多已经确定，但最终的发货价格将在交货前确定

来源：Digitimes，引用业内消息来源。

很难想象2027年初中期会出现内存“过剩”的说法，当时他们已经售出了所有的容量。

2026-08-03 23:35

原文：
Be Citadel:

> calls for unexpected rate hike few days ago, causing market panic

> reaches out and buys billions of liquidated hedge fund AI assets

> no rate hike

> “Bull market drivers are fully intact” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq

翻译：
是城堡证券：

> 几天前呼吁意外加息，引起市场恐慌

> 主动出击，购买数十亿美元被清算的对冲基金AI资产

> 没有加息

> “牛市驱动因素仍然完好无损” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq

2026-08-03 21:17

原文：
The bears have gone back into hibernation

翻译：
熊已经回到冬眠状态 🐻💤

2026-08-02 03:43

原文：
Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran.

And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program.

Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months? https://t.co/4PK671c548

翻译：
特朗普宣布，美国已取消对伊朗的攻击。

并且他们已同意达成一项协议的框架，以开放海峡并结束核计划。

过去6个月里，有没有人觉得自己老了几岁？ https://t.co/4PK671c548

2026-08-01 06:26

原文：
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs:

Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory.

And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand.

This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps.

I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.

翻译：
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE Summit 上警告，AI 数据中心的 InP 激光器供应缺口：

面临的供应链危机比内存更为严重。

而且凭借 Lumentum 的 5 个 InP 代工厂，出货量将比客户需求少 30%+。

这在今天的 EML 中尤其明显，但随着 CPO 的扩张，已经开始扩展到 CW。

我一直是激光瓶颈论的粉丝，$AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR 都是相关公司。很高兴看到这个观点开始得到验证。

2026-08-01 06:24

原文：
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs:

Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory.

And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand.

This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expand to CW, especially as CPO ramps.

I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.

This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already extending to CW, especially as CPO ramps.

I tend to be a fan of laser players with independent capacity like $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, and $COHR.

翻译：
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE Summit 上警告称，AI 数据中心的 InP 激光器供应面临着比内存更严重的供应链危机。
即使拥有 5 个 InP 代工厂，Lumentum 的出货量仍将比客户需求少 30%+。
这种情况在今天的 EML 中尤其明显，但已经扩展到 CW，尤其是随着 CPO 的扩张。
我一直是激光瓶颈论的粉丝，$AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR 都是相关公司，我很高兴看到这个观点开始得到验证。
这种情况在今天的 EML 中尤其明显，但已经扩展到 CW，尤其是随着 CPO 的扩张。
我倾向于支持拥有独立生产能力的激光公司，如 $SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE 和 $COHR。

2026-07-31 22:52

原文：
The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious.

Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure".

After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness.

It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others.

Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging.

But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage).

I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.

翻译：
媒体对利奥波德的报道和X上的反应令人震惊。

将他从$SNDK到$BE的成功多年投资策略说成是“崩溃”或“失败”，这是不公平的。

7月份令人惊讶的崩盘之后，媒体还对他进行人身攻击，看到这一幕真是令人遗憾。

这几乎就像每个人都在为他人的失败而欢呼。

是的，7月份的崩盘暴露了SA的杠杆、流动性管理和对冲问题。

但是他目前的年度表现仍然是+80%，在最佳表现的对冲基金中排名靠前。并且在经历了这一切之后，他仍然拥有公开的股票（只是去掉了杠杆）。

我认为他正在做一些独特的事情，同时也取得了成功。这引起了他人的嫉妒。

2026-07-31 19:16

原文：
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion.

Up from $695-$725B Billion previously.

Amazon: $220B
Google: $195B-$205B
Meta: $130B-$145B
Microsoft: $175B

We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows).

But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds.

Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking.

My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy.

Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers.

Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets.

As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.

翻译：
作为收益回顾：$AMZN、$META、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 指出 2026 年综合资本支出预测为约 720-7450 亿美元。

较之前的 695-7250 亿美元有所上升。

亚马逊：2200 亿美元
谷歌：1950-2050 亿美元
Meta：1300-1450 亿美元
微软：1750 亿美元

我们已经看到显著的去杠杆和零售/机构保证金清算（可能会继续一段时间，谁知道）。

但中长期来看，我不太确定为什么有人会看空上游半导体或新云计算。

鉴于每个超大规模云计算公司都提到了计算资源短缺、云计算需求增长+定价权或芯片/网络支出增加。

我关于许多上游半导体供应链的“瓶颈”论点是，当数万亿资本流入诸如磷化物基底板或内存（这些曾经被视为廉价商品）甚至能源等领域时。

许多当前的 AI 公司曾经在电信周期或甚至马桶销售者中被视为无用的东西。

当它们的拐点期到来，资本支出流入它们的资产负债表时，就会被重新评估。

如同过去几年中 $NVDA 的 GPU、今年的内存、未来几年的 CPU/MLCC、2027 年的 CPO、2027 年的玻璃基板、2027 年的 800V 等所见。

2026-07-31 16:19

原文：
$RDDT ER in a nutshell:

Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected).
EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95.
Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M

Q3 guidance:
Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M
Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M

Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative.

Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!"

This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)

翻译：
$RDDT 财报简要概述：

收入：804.9M 美元，预期为 730.4M 美元。
每股收益：1.25 美元，预期约为 0.95 美元。
净收入：252.8M 美元，预期为 196.5M 美元

第三季度预测：
收入：860–870M 美元，预期为 829.1M 美元
调整后息税折旧摊销前利润：385-395M 美元，预期为 369M 美元

财报非常出色，但市场总是喜欢用一些新编的理由来解释 22.6% 的下跌。

上个季度：“AI 会破坏 Reddit，从而导致收入损失！”

这个季度：“看，日活用户数量下降了 0.6%！”（然后忽略任何收入和盈利能力的增长）

2026-07-31 10:12

原文：
Just a TLDR of this week:

Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute.
-> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr.

Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over.
-> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike.

Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble.
-> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀

Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks.
-> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%

翻译：
本周简要概述：

媒体：超大规模云计算公司过度扩张，现在正在出售多余的计算资源。
-> $GOOGL、$MSFT、$META 和 $AMZN：计算需求远远超过容量。资本支出激增。

机构：紧急加息或三次加息，结果都一样。
-> 凯文·沃什：不会加息。

零售/媒体：人工智能正在崩溃，因为它是一个泡沫。
-> 城堡投资集团正在寻求购买人工智能杠杆对冲基金头寸：👀

吉姆·克莱默：卖掉所有杠杆式数据中心股票。
-> 韩国人：SK海力士 +30%，三星 +26.81%

2026-07-31 08:58

原文：
Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE.

Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026.

But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026.

So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production.

On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.

翻译：
现在我想得更多，$POET 光学互连器件实际上比我想象中与 $SIVE 有更多的关联。

最初的表述是“准备就绪”以应对 2026 年底。

但 $POET 升级了这个表述，宣布将在 2026 年底与 Sivers 激光器实现“生产”。

因此，来自 $JBL 到 $POET的大批量订单应该会在 2027 年上半年到来。这有一定的道理，因为 Sivers 曾为未来大规模生产而进行了超额认购的机构融资。

顺便说一下，已经八月了，距离 2027 年只有 5 个月了……这是我预测玻璃基板、CPO、800V 和新架构将实现大规模生产的转折窗口。 🙃

2026-07-31 08:27

原文：
For $XFAB ER transcript:

Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability.

- $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics".

- "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB"

So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong.

At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general.

So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v.

Okay back to the ER:

- "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners.

I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months.

- Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off).

So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities.

TLDR:
- Current revenue numbers not as impressive.
- $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis)
- 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027)
- Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production

Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.

翻译：
关于 $XFAB 收入报告的内容：

为了回顾一下，我之前关于 $XFAB 代工厂增长机会的想法源自于 SiC 在 800v 和 photonixfab/MTP 在 CPO 应用的潜力。

- $XFAB：”我们在共包光学方面取得了进展“。

- ”转向 800v... 预计将支持 SiC 和 GaN 对于 XFAB 的需求“

所以那些自信地发布负面信息关于 $XFAB 的分析师/人士，他们说

🔄

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