$4 $我踏马来了
4没拿住 错过翻倍
踏马小吃
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觅信聚合
我的关注
这些分配能带来多少产能收入（美国分析师的 AOI 通话中有一半围绕这些）
- $GFS NPO/CPO/可插拔规模的影响以及下游终端客户机会
- Ayar / CPO 选手 2028 年的 ramp（曾募集 $500m+）或其他如 ELS 生产与 O‑net、TAM 机会
- 那 6 家新可插拔选手的规模，而不是问“为什么不能披露它们”
- 澄清 CFO 关于上市时间表和并购 TAM 扩张机会的法律说明
这样投资者才能了解 2027‑2028 年的未来增长。
然而，因引导性问题的提法/回答方式，整个通话都围绕当前财务（
- $GFS NPO/CPO/可插拔规模的影响以及下游终端客户机会
- Ayar / CPO 选手 2028 年的 ramp（曾募集 $500m+）或其他如 ELS 生产与 O‑net、TAM 机会
- 那 6 家新可插拔选手的规模，而不是问“为什么不能披露它们”
- 澄清 CFO 关于上市时间表和并购 TAM 扩张机会的法律说明
这样投资者才能了解 2027‑2028 年的未来增长。
然而，因引导性问题的提法/回答方式，整个通话都围绕当前财务（
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原文：
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising.
Over the US.
The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include:
- Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding"
- "Why can't you disclosure your private customers"
- Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious)
- Implications for non-photonics orders
So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means"
US analysts would have pressed:
- Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage
- Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts)
- $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities
- Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there.
- How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them"
- Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities
So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028.
Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording.
Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck.
The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
翻译：
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然把沟通/私募重点放在瑞典本地市场。
而不是美国。
来自瑞典重度受众的问题包括：
- 引导性问题，例如你会如何“止血”
- “为什么不能披露你的私有客户”
- 为什么聚焦收发器（显而易见）
- 对非光子订单的影响
所以大约三分之一的时间，CEO 需要为“机会管线”意味着什么的引导/指责性问题进行辩护。
美国分析师会关注：
- 在瓶颈期间两家代工分配的经济影响 + ASP 上涨/运营杠杆
-
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising.
Over the US.
The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include:
- Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding"
- "Why can't you disclosure your private customers"
- Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious)
- Implications for non-photonics orders
So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means"
US analysts would have pressed:
- Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage
- Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts)
- $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities
- Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there.
- How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them"
- Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities
So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028.
Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording.
Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck.
The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
翻译：
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然把沟通/私募重点放在瑞典本地市场。
而不是美国。
来自瑞典重度受众的问题包括：
- 引导性问题，例如你会如何“止血”
- “为什么不能披露你的私有客户”
- 为什么聚焦收发器（显而易见）
- 对非光子订单的影响
所以大约三分之一的时间，CEO 需要为“机会管线”意味着什么的引导/指责性问题进行辩护。
美国分析师会关注：
- 在瓶颈期间两家代工分配的经济影响 + ASP 上涨/运营杠杆
-
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你眼中的你不是你，别人眼中的你也不是你，你眼中的别人才是你。
抛开一切杂音，远离一切能影响你判断的因素，遵从本心去完成每一次交易，每一次决绝的交易，而不是做完就后悔的交易。
市场永远有人看多，永远有人看空，多空任何时候都是对立。
抛开一切杂音，远离一切能影响你判断的因素，遵从本心去完成每一次交易，每一次决绝的交易，而不是做完就后悔的交易。
市场永远有人看多，永远有人看空，多空任何时候都是对立。
Comments
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最重要的是，谁在乎跟客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你们做可插拔，我们就把激光业务交给别家做”
那又是谁？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 也都把激光产能转去内部使用了。你们很多亚洲玩家也已经分配好了。
现在就该尽可能利用这个产能瓶颈，因为几乎已经没有合格的选择了。
而且我敢肯定，所有合作伙伴也都在试图向上游垂直整合到激光层面，并参与竞争。
如果在 Q2 那个时间窗口里就推进新的 OE/可插拔布局，情况会完全不一样。
_
总结：
$SIVE 应该瞄准下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司那样迅速扩张。
把那 7000 万美元资本用来在 H2 加速推进，至少到那时完成就绪。并预计 NASDAQ 上市在 2027 年 H1 完成。
不是在那个时间点还停留在“评估”。
同时利用资本和股权，借助你的估值向下游扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，并收购一家 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 这样的初创公司。
至于电话会里的措辞，市场关心的是代工产能分配 + 6 家可插拔玩家带来的经济价值，而不是其他业务板块。
$SIVE 迄今一直非常保守，但他们需要加速，并且要面向有前瞻性的美国/国际股东进行沟通。
不要只迎合那些更关心 Q2/TTM 收入的瑞典本地受众。
否则他们会被当成亚洲零部件供应商，最终也会被按欧盟公司的估值来定价。
那又是谁？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 也都把激光产能转去内部使用了。你们很多亚洲玩家也已经分配好了。
现在就该尽可能利用这个产能瓶颈，因为几乎已经没有合格的选择了。
而且我敢肯定，所有合作伙伴也都在试图向上游垂直整合到激光层面，并参与竞争。
如果在 Q2 那个时间窗口里就推进新的 OE/可插拔布局，情况会完全不一样。
_
总结：
$SIVE 应该瞄准下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司那样迅速扩张。
把那 7000 万美元资本用来在 H2 加速推进，至少到那时完成就绪。并预计 NASDAQ 上市在 2027 年 H1 完成。
不是在那个时间点还停留在“评估”。
同时利用资本和股权，借助你的估值向下游扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，并收购一家 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 这样的初创公司。
至于电话会里的措辞，市场关心的是代工产能分配 + 6 家可插拔玩家带来的经济价值，而不是其他业务板块。
$SIVE 迄今一直非常保守，但他们需要加速，并且要面向有前瞻性的美国/国际股东进行沟通。
不要只迎合那些更关心 Q2/TTM 收入的瑞典本地受众。
否则他们会被当成亚洲零部件供应商，最终也会被按欧盟公司的估值来定价。
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already allocated.
Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left.
And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete.
If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different.
_
TLDR:
$SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company.
Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027.
Not "evaluation" at that timeframe.
And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup.
As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments.
$SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but
they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders.
Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue.
Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
翻译：
如果我要挑 $SIVE 这次财报电话会的毛病：
1. 管理层对最重要的两个披露不够重视。
-> 6 个可插拔业务合作
-> 铸造产能（在行业产能瓶颈期）
这才是电话会最关键的部分，本应是重点，用来体现他们的经济规模。但我们只听到了 2-3 句。
而且本不该还得靠 X 上一个二次元头像来解释这些内容的含义。
2. CFO 需要重新培训，或者换一个新的。
作为股东，听到那些律师式的回答真的很烦。连我都被这句话气到了：
“我们会评估时机，并决定在那个时候条件是否合适再推进。”
到现在就应该默认他们会申请双重上市，以摆脱充满敌意的瑞典市场。
股东出资不是为了听这种律师腔的回答。
再说一次，这可能是 CFO 能给出的最差回答之一了，必须给出明确承诺，并且时间表要更快。
3. 7000 万美元本该用于并购和双重上市。
-> 说实话，这个阶段把资本投去做混合制造，纯粹是在浪费资本；我听到他们在这个时间点提这个，真的很失望。
这件事最终是需要做的，但前提是有 2 家代工供应商。
-> 你现在有大量新增资本，还有很高的市值。
应该用它去做类似 $AVGO 的收购，把 Cloud Light 这种面向可插拔业务的 IP，或者光引擎相关资产拿下来。
Lumilens 2 年内从 0 做到 55 亿美元，现在还拿到了超大规模云厂商合作。
Sivers 应该尽快跳出激光这个瓶颈，不要只做零部件供应商。
Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left.
And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete.
If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different.
_
TLDR:
$SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company.
Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027.
Not "evaluation" at that timeframe.
And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup.
As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments.
$SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but
they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders.
Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue.
Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
翻译：
如果我要挑 $SIVE 这次财报电话会的毛病：
1. 管理层对最重要的两个披露不够重视。
-> 6 个可插拔业务合作
-> 铸造产能（在行业产能瓶颈期）
这才是电话会最关键的部分，本应是重点，用来体现他们的经济规模。但我们只听到了 2-3 句。
而且本不该还得靠 X 上一个二次元头像来解释这些内容的含义。
2. CFO 需要重新培训，或者换一个新的。
作为股东，听到那些律师式的回答真的很烦。连我都被这句话气到了：
“我们会评估时机，并决定在那个时候条件是否合适再推进。”
到现在就应该默认他们会申请双重上市，以摆脱充满敌意的瑞典市场。
股东出资不是为了听这种律师腔的回答。
再说一次，这可能是 CFO 能给出的最差回答之一了，必须给出明确承诺，并且时间表要更快。
3. 7000 万美元本该用于并购和双重上市。
-> 说实话，这个阶段把资本投去做混合制造，纯粹是在浪费资本；我听到他们在这个时间点提这个，真的很失望。
这件事最终是需要做的，但前提是有 2 家代工供应商。
-> 你现在有大量新增资本，还有很高的市值。
应该用它去做类似 $AVGO 的收购，把 Cloud Light 这种面向可插拔业务的 IP，或者光引擎相关资产拿下来。
Lumilens 2 年内从 0 做到 55 亿美元，现在还拿到了超大规模云厂商合作。
Sivers 应该尽快跳出激光这个瓶颈，不要只做零部件供应商。
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原文：
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:
1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.
-> 6 pluggable engagements
-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)
That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it.
And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those.
2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one.
The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement:
"we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time."
It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets.
Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers.
Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines.
3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing.
-> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe.
It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers
-> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap.
Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines.
Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements.
Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor.
And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers"
who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:
1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.
-> 6 pluggable engagements
-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)
That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it.
And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those.
2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one.
The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement:
"we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time."
It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets.
Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers.
Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines.
3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing.
-> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe.
It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers
-> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap.
Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines.
Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements.
Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor.
And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers"
who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players
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完了完了，比特币暴跌了！牛市行情结束了？现在能不能抄底，赶紧来看看。
1. 先说为什么跌：都是沃什害的！昨夜他在国际央行会议讲话，言辞激烈，认为当前通胀过高，暗示有加息的可能。话闭，币圈、美股集体跳水，下跌5%甚至更多。那问题来了，可以抄底吗？
2. 能！你知道吗，这其实就是咱们一直梦寐以求的回调啊！比特币强支撑是在7.5万附近，ETH是在2300上方，而Sol的支撑位则是在98附近，现在非常接近了，在支撑位上方一点挂单，回调就是做反弹的机会！
3. 其实舒琴这几天也跟大家警示过了双顶回调的风险，双顶涨不动，那就只能先跌一下再说。所以如图所示，舒琴昨天还讲过比特币要回调了，那时候BTC价格是8万，结果视频刚发完他就跌到了7万6。
4. 以上这个是合约，追求在较为极限的点位入场，这样才有高的盈亏比和胜算。但是对走势不太敏感的现货我觉得可以逢低买点，因为长线来看，比特币是一定会去18万以上的，所以7万5和7万7购买，差别不大，你说是吧？
5. 所以有看我节目逃顶的宝宝恭喜你啦，现在咱们就考虑逢低接回，到关键支撑再做多一手，别提有爽啦~
6.. 另外，不知道大家有没有发现一个秘密，其实舒琴周四贴文展示的图里，除了有Sol多单，其实还有一个AMZN亚马逊的多单！如图2所示，就是这个图。那今天亚马逊就出结果了，一天爆拉5%，不知道大家有没有发现呢，每天跟我，干就完了~
1. 先说为什么跌：都是沃什害的！昨夜他在国际央行会议讲话，言辞激烈，认为当前通胀过高，暗示有加息的可能。话闭，币圈、美股集体跳水，下跌5%甚至更多。那问题来了，可以抄底吗？
2. 能！你知道吗，这其实就是咱们一直梦寐以求的回调啊！比特币强支撑是在7.5万附近，ETH是在2300上方，而Sol的支撑位则是在98附近，现在非常接近了，在支撑位上方一点挂单，回调就是做反弹的机会！
3. 其实舒琴这几天也跟大家警示过了双顶回调的风险，双顶涨不动，那就只能先跌一下再说。所以如图所示，舒琴昨天还讲过比特币要回调了，那时候BTC价格是8万，结果视频刚发完他就跌到了7万6。
4. 以上这个是合约，追求在较为极限的点位入场，这样才有高的盈亏比和胜算。但是对走势不太敏感的现货我觉得可以逢低买点，因为长线来看，比特币是一定会去18万以上的，所以7万5和7万7购买，差别不大，你说是吧？
5. 所以有看我节目逃顶的宝宝恭喜你啦，现在咱们就考虑逢低接回，到关键支撑再做多一手，别提有爽啦~
6.. 另外，不知道大家有没有发现一个秘密，其实舒琴周四贴文展示的图里，除了有Sol多单，其实还有一个AMZN亚马逊的多单！如图2所示，就是这个图。那今天亚马逊就出结果了，一天爆拉5%，不知道大家有没有发现呢，每天跟我，干就完了~
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【陈哥一对一指导】
回顾上周陈哥会员爆赚3313%🎉
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回顾上周陈哥会员爆赚3313%🎉
从6万陈哥开始一直在喊涨并布局现货，大方向陈哥虽然在坚定看涨，但是日内操心多空转换，日内出什么信号做什么策略，合约交易每日其实都有交易机会“关键在于怎么操作？跟谁操作？”跟随陈哥做合约交易的会员都清楚，只要陈哥开单全天盯盘，跟对人就能赚钱。
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原文：
Something else to look at aside from DDR2/DDR3
Are your legacy SLC NAND fabless companies with wafer allocations given the 120-170% contract pricing revisions.
Etron/ESMT are in this same bottleneck too (with varying exposure).
Then there’s others like Jeju Semiconductor (080220) (need to look at inventory/revenue mix)
Where Q2 annualized is 4.5x p/e ish. But if you’re hiking by150-170%, numbers should compress a lot depending on exposure.
翻译：
除了 DDR2/DDR3 之外，还可以关注其他方面
你的传统 SLC NAND 无晶圆代工公司在获得 120‑170% 合同价格修订后，是否仍有晶圆配额。
Etron/ESMT 也处于同样的瓶颈（暴露程度不同）。
还有像 Jeju Semiconductor（080220）（需要查看库存/收入结构）
其中 Q2 年化约为 4.5 倍 p/e。但如果涨幅在 150‑170%，根据暴露程度，数字应该会大幅压缩。
Something else to look at aside from DDR2/DDR3
Are your legacy SLC NAND fabless companies with wafer allocations given the 120-170% contract pricing revisions.
Etron/ESMT are in this same bottleneck too (with varying exposure).
Then there’s others like Jeju Semiconductor (080220) (need to look at inventory/revenue mix)
Where Q2 annualized is 4.5x p/e ish. But if you’re hiking by150-170%, numbers should compress a lot depending on exposure.
翻译：
除了 DDR2/DDR3 之外，还可以关注其他方面
你的传统 SLC NAND 无晶圆代工公司在获得 120‑170% 合同价格修订后，是否仍有晶圆配额。
Etron/ESMT 也处于同样的瓶颈（暴露程度不同）。
还有像 Jeju Semiconductor（080220）（需要查看库存/收入结构）
其中 Q2 年化约为 4.5 倍 p/e。但如果涨幅在 150‑170%，根据暴露程度，数字应该会大幅压缩。
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比特幣，BTC假突破跌回！持倉一天退光，還要再探...
專注分析BTC比特幣日內短線行情走勢
社群：https://t.me/SwordsmanDBK
本人：https://t.me/dbk9527
註冊交易bitget交易所，即刻加入！
帮助节约手续费20%-50%，Bitget注册链接
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