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https://discord.com/channels/1353249674861084682/1377180129226264576/1527738222820724889
https://discord.com/channels/1353249674861084682/1377180129226264576/1527736015131771102
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

AI/半导体供应链 NFA DYOR（自行研究），不提供付费推广；可能会交易/保留名称，观点仅代表个人立场。分享免费的AI瓶颈研究。
原文：
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal.

Seems like they saw how profitable
$SPCX $45B compute deal was.

But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework.

Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT

翻译：
$META 正在与 Anthropic洽谈一项价值100亿美元的计算资源租赁协议。

看起来他们注意到了 $SPCX 450亿美元的计算资源协议的盈利能力。

但这也证明了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等公司的 Neocloud 商业模式是可行的，如果超大规模云计算服务提供商也在效仿他们的做法。

来源：纽约时报 https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT

image
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to v...

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal.Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was.But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework.Source: NYT

174.4出一半 165.5的cbrs

174.4出一半 165.5的cbrs

https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cspa/43222003487954?l=zh-CN&r=SDR9QGU2&source=host_share&uc=web_square_share_link&us=telegram

https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cspa/43222003487954?l=zh-CN&r=SDR9QGU2&source=host_share&uc=web_square_share_link&us=telegram“我正在币安广场收听语音直播“王牌飞行员”，和我一起在此处收听：…”

5.0先平出了做T部分的5.0的conl 再找低的机会

5.0先平出了做T部分的5.0的conl 再找低的机会

https://discord.com/channels/1353249674861084682/1354377783035560047/1527726884295671858
兄弟们三马哥的闪迪回本了，而且还吃肉了，但是我很贪心怎们办？求家人们给个建议。

兄弟们三马哥的闪迪回本了，而且还吃肉了，但是我很贪心怎们办？求家人们给个建议。听说今天提前布局的ETH多单也吃肉了？难道你忘了我在开盘前告诉你插针做多？剥头皮做多？#ETH #SNDK 👉马前炮告诉你做多吃肉了

ETH多单吃肉，利润超过100%，多单走一半，汇报#BTC #ETH

ETH多单吃肉，利润超过100%，多单走一半，汇报#BTC #ETH💬 回复 三马哥合约ETH 做多  仓位思路强平控制1300U及以下1830附近市价直接干   100倍 2%保证金再挂1778  100倍 3%保证金第一止盈（睡觉挂1871全部止盈）第二止盈  2100止损1700

爽呐，他娘的终于扛到回本了 https://t.co/g1PvN1QIYO
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

AI/半导体供应链 NFA DYOR（自行研究），不提供付费推广；可能会交易/保留名称，观点仅代表个人立场。分享免费的AI瓶颈研究。
原文：
Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk?

“As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.”

(There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data)

Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:

翻译：
哇，显然韩国大约3.4%的成年人口面临清算风险？

“截至7月13日，超过120万个杠杆零售交易者的账户触发了保证金调用线，320,000到360,000个账户被券商强制清算。”

（其他来源声称这些数据来自高盛交易台，而不是韩国金融监管服务机构的数据）

无论如何，这只是最近崩盘是由清算级联/去杠杆加速，而不是基本面驱动的证据：

image
Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail trad...

Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk?“As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.”(There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data)Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:

[图片]

[图片]

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

AI/半导体供应链 NFA DYOR（自行研究），不提供付费推广；可能会交易/保留名称，观点仅代表个人立场。分享免费的AI瓶颈研究。
原文：
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.

My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.

In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.

I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:

- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”

And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.

But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.

And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.

I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.

Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.

Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

翻译：
感觉糟糕，最近暴跌后这个月亏损了49.4%。

我的投资组合主要是人工智能的瓶颈领域，包括内存、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些领域的波动性通常高于其他领域。但最近由于暴跌，我已经减少了杠杆。

我看到很多人嘲笑这些股票的下跌，或者说人工智能的概念是泡沫，例如：

- “人工智能是泡沫”
- “内存/韩国股票是泡沫”
- “光子学是泡沫”
- “人形机器人不会有任何进展”
- “新云计算将被像Meta这样的超大规模企业取代”

还有很多散户和机器人在喊“卖掉一切，这些股票永远不会恢复”。

但是我坚信这些主题都是由结构性收入增长或技术转变支撑的。

我过去也经历过类似的亏损，当时有全球关税威胁，但市场最终还是恢复了。

我个人有更长的投资视野和更高的风险承受能力，愿意等待看到这些投资的结果。

尤其是考虑到很多散户都是按照周来看待问题的：不，我现在的投资理念还不算错，如果我预计2027年下半年会有收入拐点，现在才2026年。

无论如何，短期来看感觉很糟糕，但我还是想分享我的想法，以便透明。

image
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotic...

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:- “AI is a bubble”- “memory/kospi is a bubble”- “photonics is a bubble”- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.Serenity: Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly

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