Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotic...
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:- “AI is a bubble”- “memory/kospi is a bubble”- “photonics is a bubble”- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.Serenity: Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly
