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Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

AI/半导体供应链 NFA DYOR（自行研究），不提供付费推广；可能会交易/保留名称，观点仅代表个人立场。分享免费的AI瓶颈研究。
原文：
The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences:

I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest.

Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling.

And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally.

Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.

翻译：
X 的一个好处是可以看到文化差异：

我关注了一些欧洲账户，它们今年到目前为止仅获得了2%的银行储蓄利息。

它们从“冬眠”中醒来，一直认为投资于 $AAOI 的光子技术或三星的内存是赌博。

并在一切与人工智能相关的东西，从 $MRVL 到 $NBIS 到 $INTC，最终在经历了几百个百分点的上涨后崩溃时庆祝。

我认为这主要是由于缺乏对技术转变的理解，混合了资本保护文化与增长文化。
The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of ...

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences:I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest.Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling.And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally.Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.LG trading: @aleabitoreddit Or like some that come out and say “I told you”. What a bunch of losers. I appreciate your transparency

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今天美股下跌，所有寬基指數均下跌，絕大多數行業指數下跌。這種幾乎全面下跌的情形已經很久未見了。標普期貨ES跌至20均線下方，納指期貨跌至60均線下方，雖然盤中有強烈反彈（符合盤前筆記的預期），但是未能回到相應均線上方。半導體指數 SOXX 在下方籌碼峰止跌回升，但也沒能站上60均線，並且是衝高回落的姿態，此為弱勢。有可能將繼續向下方（470元）尋找支持。另外，這段時間一直保持強勢的標普等權指數 RSP 今天也呈現衝高回落的姿態，非常不舒服。如果 RSP 的日K圖形跌破20均線，則有可能引發一波市場全體回撤休整行情。綜上所述，目前市場偏弱，缺乏領導股，沒有「旗幟」的市場是沒有戰鬥力的。由此推斷下週市場可能還會慣性向下——除非上述標的都能回到相應的均線上方，請注意這個前提——依據盤前的計畫，我已增加保護頭寸。截止週五收盤，TQQQ組合今年的回報為21.25%持倉中有兩筆NQ看跌期權和一筆TQQQ看漲期權祝週末愉快～—————————本文非投資建議，請參閱 【讀者須知】。

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）

AI/半导体供应链 NFA DYOR（自行研究），不提供付费推广；可能会交易/保留名称，观点仅代表个人立场。分享免费的AI瓶颈研究。
原文：
Thanks, love reading the comments!

Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations.

But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on:

- Much higher silicon photonics module volumes
- scale out, scale up, scale across volumes
- 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins
- increase in AI capex

This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since:

I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing.

Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too.

Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th.

Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings.

TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections.

Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

翻译：
感谢，喜欢阅读评论！

高盛将英诺光的目标价上调至2581元人民币，大约是当前估值的163.6%上涨。

但最重要的是，其2026-2028年的盈利预测修订上涨了65%/108%/119%，基于：

- 硅光子模块的销量大幅增加
- 规模扩大、提升和横向扩展的销量
- 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价和利润率
- 人工智能资本支出的增加

这通常是对光学行业的非常重要的参考，因为：

我倾向于认为英诺光是一种类似于台积电（半导体资本支出）的参考指标，反映光子技术的发展状况。

例如，硅光子技术的渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器（如$SIVE）和SOI晶圆需求（如$SOI）的市场规模更大。未来几代产品的价格上涨对其他光学公司也是积极的。

我从报告中得出的另一个结论是，英诺光表示800g需求的增长速度超过预期，根据他们12日的记录。

这反过来又表明，对于像$AAOI到$LITE这样的公司来说，下一次财报的需求将会增加。

总结：高盛在大幅修正期间给出了高盈利预测。

从根本上讲，光子技术生态系统应该在盈利报告发布时感到高兴。

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Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing...

Thanks, love reading the comments!Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations.But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on:- Much higher silicon photonics module volumes- scale out, scale up, scale across volumes- 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins- increase in AI capexThis is typically very material read through on the optical sector since:I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing.Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too.Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings.TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.Steven Xu: @aleabitoreddit long time lurker, just wanted to update you on a recent development: Goldman Sachs updated Innolights price target to an insane 2581 Yuan/share during this downturn. Today's trading session saw the stock trading at 979.46 a share.

kimi公司内部的五条准则
快收盘了，多头除了早盘散户时段有些买盘，全天基本没有力度，下周大概率继续下探7380的三角形整理区下轨，现在抄底为时尚早。
4.79 加回5.0卖出的那部分conl

4.79 加回5.0卖出的那部分conl

864加回884出的那部分mu

864加回884出的那部分mu

https://discord.com/channels/1353249674861084682/1377180129226264576/1527738222820724889

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