我的关注

原文：
I’m not surprised $LAPTOP is down -96.16% after launch.

I frown on these types of events that are not positive sum for retail. https://t.co/YbrzeOQpuT

翻译：
我并不惊讶 $LAPTOP 在上市后跌了 -96.16%。
我对这类对散户没有正和效应的事件感到不满。 https://t.co/YbrzeOQpuT

原文：
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."

I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.

And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.

Just for reference:

For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones.

For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme

With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets."

We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings.

So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026.

Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...

翻译：
Citibank TMT：“激光和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM’。”

自2025年以来，我就一直在讨论 $LITE / $AAOI 等激光，以及向连续波（CW）架构的转变，早于当前行业共识。

我完全赞同 Lightmatter/Citi 的观点。

仅供参考：

激光方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo 是较为知名的公司。

光纤方面：$GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo 更为人熟知（显然在供应链中还有更多），*披露，个人对该主题的敞口。

补充说明：“供应紧张将为这些资产提供稀缺溢价”。

我们已经看到激光价格上涨，例如今天在深圳 CIOE 2026 上对 $SIVE 的渠道调查以及 $LITE 的业绩评论。

因此我认为2027–2028年的光子超级周期将非常类似于2025–2026年的存储周期。

尤其是根据高盛修订后的估计，光学内容/GPU-ASIC 将显著增长……

原文：
Demand for Astra is unprecedented to the point OpenAI might pause new Pro subscriptions.

If you want a translation:

AI buildout + compute go brrr.

翻译：
对 Astra 的需求空前，以至于 OpenAI 可能会暂停新的 Pro 订阅。

如果你想要翻译：

AI 建设 + 计算算力嗖嗖

原文：
Special thank you to awodias for the crowdsourced channel check all the way from CIOE 2026 Shenzhen!

- Confirmed that $SIVE is actively engaged with Chinese pluggable makers

- $SIVE has raised lasers prices given tight supply

- 70mW lasers seem the most tight given association with 800g pluggables

It’s pretty cool that our little community reaches all the way around the world.

(Also thank you if other people did channel checks and I missed it, this was the first one I saw)

翻译：
特别感谢 awodias 在 CIOE 2026 深圳进行的众包渠道检查！

- 确认 $SIVE 正在积极与中国可插拔厂商合作
- 由于供应紧张，$SIVE 已上调激光器价格
- 70mW 激光器因与 800g 可插拔产品关联而最为紧缺

我们的社区能够遍及全球，真的很酷。

（如果还有其他人做了渠道检查但我漏掉了，也谢谢你们，这是我看到的第一个）