原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."
I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.
And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.
Just for reference:
For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones.
For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme
With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets."
We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings.
So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026.
Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
翻译：
Citibank TMT：“激光和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM’。”
自2025年以来，我就一直在讨论 $LITE / $AAOI 等激光，以及向连续波（CW）架构的转变，早于当前行业共识。
我完全赞同 Lightmatter/Citi 的观点。
仅供参考：
激光方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo 是较为知名的公司。
光纤方面：$GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo 更为人熟知（显然在供应链中还有更多），*披露，个人对该主题的敞口。
补充说明：“供应紧张将为这些资产提供稀缺溢价”。
我们已经看到激光价格上涨，例如今天在深圳 CIOE 2026 上对 $SIVE 的渠道调查以及 $LITE 的业绩评论。
因此我认为2027–2028年的光子超级周期将非常类似于2025–2026年的存储周期。
尤其是根据高盛修订后的估计，光学内容/GPU-ASIC 将显著增长……
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."
I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.
And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.
Just for reference:
For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones.
For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme
With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets."
We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings.
So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026.
Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
翻译：
Citibank TMT：“激光和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM’。”
自2025年以来，我就一直在讨论 $LITE / $AAOI 等激光，以及向连续波（CW）架构的转变，早于当前行业共识。
我完全赞同 Lightmatter/Citi 的观点。
仅供参考：
激光方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo 是较为知名的公司。
光纤方面：$GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo 更为人熟知（显然在供应链中还有更多），*披露，个人对该主题的敞口。
补充说明：“供应紧张将为这些资产提供稀缺溢价”。
我们已经看到激光价格上涨，例如今天在深圳 CIOE 2026 上对 $SIVE 的渠道调查以及 $LITE 的业绩评论。
因此我认为2027–2028年的光子超级周期将非常类似于2025–2026年的存储周期。
尤其是根据高盛修订后的估计，光学内容/GPU-ASIC 将显著增长……
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