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So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain:- Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM).Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital.Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027.So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries. Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp". These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp. Regardless, just an update on developments.

<@&1519026403734061156>#600879##航天电子# 离上涨目标越来越近，下周有望实现。 专栏 · 航天电子

Be SemiAnalysis:- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

<@&1519026403734061156>#三花智控##002050# 5月底说了三花处于4浪内，有望在43.87--36.37之间找到终点，现在最低点在40.35，正好位于该区间内，然后开始上涨。图二分享它的监测点。 专栏 · 三花智控

韩国指数涨停熔断了。海力士涨9%夜里抄koru的估计发死了。不仅没跌停，还反向涨停。 https://t.co/ziD5KmmLEP

[Subscribers Only] This is a conspiracy theory of mine: but Jensen ha…

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others:“We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”.“Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”.Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute…When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5.I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable…Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility RoboticsAs well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.Serenity: 专门写给我的中文读者：绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。他们的业务涵盖：谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户）人形机器人旋转关节减速器直线执行器电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。

Lot of misinformation recently about $META.Recently major journals have been stating “AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED”To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex:As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.Serenity: $META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5.Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”.Who said they were out of the AI race again?

$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5.Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”.Who said they were out of the AI race again?

<@&1519026403734061156>#原油# 的67.96元到达也是有望反弹的位置。观察到了小级别反弹。图二分享监测点判断能否扩大级别。

<@&1519026403734061156>#美光##MU# 确认见顶，而之前6月20号提出了“当下周或下下周，美光/闪迪/海力士/英特尔等硅基股票见顶开始回撤”。至今得到了验证。美光在找底。上次财报后跌了9天，本次财报后跌了6天，且看几天能止跌。图二分享对美光的看法。 专栏 · 美光

<@&1519026403734061156>#SK海力士##000660# 确认见顶以后，给出的下跌位置顺利到达，并在支撑区间获得支撑进行小级别反弹。海力士和三星电子关乎韩国的国运。也关乎AI超级周期股，也关乎A股科技股。影响力不可谓不大。图二分享支撑区及反弹监测点。 专栏 · SK海力士

今天公布的美國6月非農就業新增57K職位，遠低於預期的 110K，是四個月以來最低的就業增幅。然而，大致與過去 12 個月平均月變動（+36K）相符，並未出現明顯異常。消息發布後美股市場小幅上漲，隨後逐步下跌。跌幅較大的群體是半導體和AI產業鏈相關股票：半導體指數 $SOXX 下跌-5.5%，AI概念指數 CHAT 下跌-5%，存儲概念指數 $DRAM 暴跌 -9%！由於跌幅主要集中在科技股，非科技股總體表現不錯。因此儘管納指的形態很難看，但是市場寬度持續提升，反應市場平均回報水平的標普等權指數 RSP 今天再創歷史新高。綜合來看，當前的美股市場是局部調整總體健康，沒有系統性風險的跡象。今天納指期貨在盤中形成了1小時級別完全空頭排列，而標普期貨完全是另外一個狀況。基於上述判斷，我並沒有做空對沖，反而是增持了TQQQ和QQQ看漲期權。關於對沖，我認為必須建立一個基本認知：對沖的目的是降低系統性風險（持續下跌）造成的損失，不需要對沖正常波動，那樣損耗太大。我通常會在市場有可能大幅下跌的時候做對沖，比如在今年3月份，市場盤整了4個月之後有可能大幅下跌；再比如6月初，當時納指持續上漲30%+，我認為有可能大幅回撤。感興趣的網友可以回看當時的筆記。目前的狀況是橫向大幅波動，這是指數連續大漲之後的斜率修正行情（下圖是我預想的效果），均線多頭排列沒有大幅下行的風險，因此，我會對波動多一些忍耐。不管怎麼說，指數不會跌到零、投資指數沒有本金永久損失的風險，更何況投資納斯達克100指數，它代表這個星球上最先進生產力的發展方向。既然如此，趁跌買就是最容易賺到錢的方式。據傳SpaceX將於美東時間下週二（2026年7月7日）正式納入納斯達克100指數，追蹤該指數的被動型基金與ETF（如QQQ）將進行大規模建倉、相關衍生品將重新定價。由此，納指成為全球第一個大規模配置太空產業的指數。7月4日是美國建國250週年慶，明天股市休市，祝在美國的網友們節日快樂、長週末快樂！—————————本文非投資建議，請參閱 【讀者須知】。