原文：
Just some consolidated updates on memory:
- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.
- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.
- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond
- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.
- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.
- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.
Something to note:
Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.
But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.
I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...
I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.
翻译：
以下是一些关于内存的最新消息：
- $MU 领投了1.5万亿日元（约93亿美元）的投资于广岛，这对Disco、Advantest、Resonac和Towa来说是一个积极的信号，因为资本支出是本地化的。
- 摩根士丹利指出，NAND将继续在2027年面临短缺，因此$SNDK / Kioxia等公司以及$SIMO和上游公司将受益。
- 摩根士丹利对Macronix/Winbond尤其持积极态度。
- 瑞银预计2026年第三季度DDR合同的平均价格将增加32%，第四季度将增加18%，高于之前的预估17%和12%。
- 瑞银预计NAND闪存的价格将比上个季度增加30%。
- 据报道，三星计划在第三季度将DRAM价格提高20%。趋势力研究所最近预测，第三季度DRAM合同价格将比上个季度增加13%至18%，因此这次涨价超出了预期。
需要注意的是：
很多人看到20%的涨价，觉得不算很多，尤其是与之前的70-80%的涨价相比。
但是，如果你先将价格提高100%，然后再提高100%，然后再提高30%，那么实际的涨价远远超过人们的预期，因为这是复利的效果，类似于追踪通货膨胀。
我已经从今年开始，对我的内存股票做出了2028年的预测。
我只是坐回去，观察事情的发展，听着所有关于“内存优化”和“他们不能一直这样涨价！”的喧嚣。
Just some consolidated updates on memory:
- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.
- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.
- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond
- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.
- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.
- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.
Something to note:
Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.
But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.
I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...
I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.
翻译：
以下是一些关于内存的最新消息：
- $MU 领投了1.5万亿日元（约93亿美元）的投资于广岛，这对Disco、Advantest、Resonac和Towa来说是一个积极的信号，因为资本支出是本地化的。
- 摩根士丹利指出，NAND将继续在2027年面临短缺，因此$SNDK / Kioxia等公司以及$SIMO和上游公司将受益。
- 摩根士丹利对Macronix/Winbond尤其持积极态度。
- 瑞银预计2026年第三季度DDR合同的平均价格将增加32%，第四季度将增加18%，高于之前的预估17%和12%。
- 瑞银预计NAND闪存的价格将比上个季度增加30%。
- 据报道，三星计划在第三季度将DRAM价格提高20%。趋势力研究所最近预测，第三季度DRAM合同价格将比上个季度增加13%至18%，因此这次涨价超出了预期。
需要注意的是：
很多人看到20%的涨价，觉得不算很多，尤其是与之前的70-80%的涨价相比。
但是，如果你先将价格提高100%，然后再提高100%，然后再提高30%，那么实际的涨价远远超过人们的预期，因为这是复利的效果，类似于追踪通货膨胀。
我已经从今年开始，对我的内存股票做出了2028年的预测。
我只是坐回去，观察事情的发展，听着所有关于“内存优化”和“他们不能一直这样涨价！”的喧嚣。
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