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I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case.

2026-07-06 09:30

原文：
Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing:

- Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer).
- AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality.
- Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples.

"X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x"

I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players.

But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver.

But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.

翻译：
Kelper 将 $XFAB 升级为 "买入"，理由是：

- Melexis 的需求不断增强（他们的主要客户），每周每天都在增长。
- 人工智能为 $XFAB 提供了结构性增长动力，碳化硅、氮化镓和光子学技术可以抵消汽车行业的周期性波动。
- 西方稀缺的特色代工厂，如 $SILEX，具有更高的估值倍数。

"X-Fab 仍然是最便宜的特色代工厂同行，每个倍数都很低，2027 年的 EV/EBITDA 为 4.8 倍，远低于同行中位数的 14.5 倍"

我认为这是核心基本面改善的良好信号，例如汽车行业。

但是，从长期增长的角度来看，我个人正在从不同的角度看待 $XFAB，特别是光子学增长和 photonixfab。考虑到 $NVDA 可能成为关键驱动力。

但是，传统公司很难在没有大量合同之前将这些活跃的发展纳入估值模型中。

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a str...

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing:- Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples. "X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x" I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players. But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver. But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.

<@&1519026403734061156>

<@&1519026403734061156>#三星电子##005930##Samsung# 与SK海力士这两家股票市值占韩国股票总市值的60%以上。明天三星发布二季度业绩预告。图二分享三星电子的浪型图。

2026-07-06 08:26

also mentioned NASDAQ listing completion targeted in the next few quarters (probably H2 2026 or Q1 2027 is my est. timeframe).

This would fund M&A efforts, since it's impossible with the fundraising environments in local Swedish markets.

As for becoming the next $LITE:

M&A makes their lasers more valuable, so downstream IP acqusition -> into contract manufacturing like $FN, and others to make the full 1.6T pluggable or optical engines. Is how they get there, since laser array ASP scaling that people are modeling off of, wouldn't command a $60B+ valuations.

There's going to be a lot of bridge architectures like NPO/pluggables, etc and noise around certain architectural delays in the meantime.

But markets misunderstand laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI and others are used across different architectures compared to if you just look at certain passive optical components.

So markets see "CPO delay headlines" algos sell off laser companies that benefit from other architectures.

Being included in the pluggable 1.6T ramp to CPO scale out (Which Sivers is included in), helps bridge revenue waiting gaps until scale up inflection point H2 2027.

I'm personally holding long term, since I haven't seen a ~$1.4B company mapping to this many hyperscalers before.

TLDR:
- Waiting on volume ramps from different architectures to play out across their hyperscaler supplier mapping
-> 1.6T LRO/CPO scale out late H2 2026 start into high volume ramp 2027
-> H2 2027 CPO scale up volume ramp
- Waiting on NASDAQ listing likely H2 2026/Q1 2027 for M&A efforts to fully take off, unless Sivers get more creative with equity financing in the meantime.

翻译：
我个人认为 $SIVE 可以成为下一个 $LITE。

在过去的几个月里，我们已经看到：

1. 与 O-Net 合作，将 ELS 推向大规模生产
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO 大规模生产信号，使用 Sivers 的可插拔产品具有“相对戏剧性的护城河”
3. $GFS SCALE 参考级激光器用于超大规模计算，具有可插拔、NPO、CPO 功能
-> -> 其中 $AMD 和其他公司已转向 GFS 采购 CPO
4. Ayar 加入

2026-07-06 08:26

$NVDA NVLink 的 CPO 行列
-> -> 从他们的网站上删除了 Lumentum/Macom，可能使 Sivers 成为他们的主要激光器供应商
-> -> AlChip 可能赢得了 Trainium 的订单，来自亚马逊的价格定位（Ayar 的客户）
-> -> GUC 的机架级设计与 Ayar 合作
-> -> 通过 AMD、Alchip、MediaTek 和 NVIDIA 的投资，获得了 5 亿美元的资金用于大规模生产
5. ~ $AEVA 计划在 2026 年下半年开始大规模生产
6. $POET 计划在 2026 年下半年开始大规模生产，拥有超大规模计算供应商，如 Lumilens（“前三名超大规模计算初始客户”）
7. TFLN + $SIVE 的 CW 激光器与 Lightium 合作
8. 可能与 $MRVL Celestial 和 CPO 玩家如 Lightelligence/Lightmatter 建立直接关系
9. 多个新的未披露关系，为可插拔产品跟随 Jabil 的季度记录

随着新的 Trendforce 报告显示 $AMD 和其他超大规模计算公司正在尝试采购长期协议（LTAs）用于连续波激光源，这将成为独立连续波源的直接催化剂。

当超大规模计算供应商从 Jabil 到 O-Net 被激励去大规模生产尽可能多的产品时：这对于 Sivers 的收入相对于当前估值来说是非常重要的，这看起来就像是一个等待游戏。

即使在过去的一周里：

- $SIVE 为量产而进行了超额认购的机构融资... 这是很微妙的，因为 Sivers 是 fab-lite，所以他们不会在内部进行代工投资来扩大规模。可能是为了与 Win Semi 和其他合作伙伴（他们也提到了其他合作伙伴）合作，以扩大激光器生产和代工分配。

所以，这可能是收入增长的重要信号。

- Sivers 也提到了纳斯达克上市的完成，目标是在接下来的几个季度内完成（可能是 2026 年下半年或 2027 年第一季度）。

这将为并购努力提供资金，因为在当地瑞典市场的融资环境中，这是不可行的。

至于成为下一个 $LITE：

并购使他们的激光器更加有价值，因此下游知识产权收购 -> 合同制造，如 $FN 和其他公司，以制造完整的 1.6T 可插拔产品或光学引擎。这是他们实现这一目标的方式，因为激光器阵列的平均销售价格（ASP）扩大，人们正在建模，这不会带来 600 亿美元以上的估值。

在此期间，将会有很多桥接架构，如 NPO/可插拔产品等，以及关于某些架构延迟的噪音。

但市场误解了激光公司，如 $LITE、$SIVE、$AAOI 等，在不同架构中被使用，相比之下，如果你只看某些被动光学组件。

所以，当市场看到“CPO 延迟头条”时，算法会卖出受益于其他架构的激光公司。

被包含在可插拔 1.6T 的 CPO 扩展中（Sivers 被包含在内），有助于弥补收入等待缺口，直到 2027 年下半年规模扩张的拐点。

我个人持有长期观点，因为我以前从未见过一个价值 ~14 亿美元的公司与这么多超大规模计算公司映射。

简而言之：
- 等待不同架构的量产拉动效应
-> 1.6T LRO/CPO 扩展于 2026 年下半年开始，进入高容量拉动 2027 年
-> 2027 年下半年 CPO 扩张量产拉动
- 等待纳斯达克上市，可能在 2026 年下半年或 2027 年第一季度，用于并购努力，除非 Sivers 在此期间找到更具创意的股权融资方式。

2026-07-06 08:26

原文：
I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.

In the past few months alone, we've seen:

1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.
3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO.
-> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO.
4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO
-> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier.
-> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer)
-> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar.
-> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA
5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026.
6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer")
7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium
8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter.
9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts

With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LTAs for CW laser sources, serving as a direct catalyst for independent CW sources.

So when hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to O-Net are incentivized to mass produce as many as they can: That's very material for revenue for Sivers relative to current valuations, and it looks like just a waiting game.

Even in the past week:

- $SIVE raised an oversubscribed institutional round for volume ramp... This is very nuanced since Sivers is fab-lite so it's not going to in-house foundry capex to scale. Likely toward Win Semi and others (they mentioned other partners too), for laser scaling + foundry allocations.

So this is likely signaling material for revenue ramp is coming.

- Sivers

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production ...

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen:1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO.-> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO.4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO-> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier. -> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer)-> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar.-> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026.6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer")7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter.9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcriptsWith new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LTAs for CW laser sources, serving as a direct catalyst for independent CW sources.So when hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to O-Net are incentivized to mass produce as many as they can: That's very material for revenue for Sivers relative to current valuations, and it looks like just a waiting game. Even in the past week:- $SIVE raised an oversubscribed institutional round for volume ramp... This is very nuanced since Sivers is fab-lite so it's not going to in-house foundry capex to scale. Likely toward Win Semi and others (they mentioned other partners too), for laser scaling + foundry allocations. So this is likely signaling material for revenue ramp is coming. - Sivers also mentioned NASDAQ listing completion targeted in the next few quarters (probably H2 2026 or Q1 2027 is my est. timeframe). This would fund M&A efforts, since it's impossible with the fundraising environments in local Swedish markets. As for becoming the next $LITE:M&A makes their lasers more valuable, so downstream IP acqusition -> into contract manufacturing like $FN, and others to make the full 1.6T pluggable or optical engines. Is how they get there, since laser array ASP scaling that people are modeling off of, wouldn't command a $60B+ valuations. There's going to be a lot of bridge architectures like NPO/pluggables, etc and noise around certain architectural delays in the meantime. But markets misunderstand laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI and others are used across different architectures compared to if you just look at certain passive optical components. So markets see "CPO delay headlines" algos sell off laser companies that benefit from other architectures. Being included in the pluggable 1.6T ramp to CPO scale out (Which Sivers is included in), helps bridge revenue waiting gaps until scale up inflection point H2 2027. I'm personally holding long term, since I haven't seen a ~$1.4B company mapping to this many hyperscalers before. TLDR:- Waiting on volume ramps from different architectures to play out across their hyperscaler supplier mapping-> 1.6T LRO/CPO scale out late H2 2026 start into high volume ramp 2027-> H2 2027 CPO scale up volume ramp- Waiting on NASDAQ listing likely H2 2026/Q1 2027 for M&A efforts to fully take off, unless Sivers get more creative with equity financing in the meantime.Jeong: @aleabitoreddit Hi stock God, you said before $SIVE has potential to be the next $LITE. What milestones do you expect $SIVE to hit in order to achieve this? Is it simply mass production of lasers for pluggable first and then CPO/NPO? How does M&As play into this?

2026-07-06 08:24

NVLink 进行 CPO
-> -> 从他们的网站上删除了 Lumentum/Macom，可能使 Sivers 成为他们的主要激光器供应商
-> -> AlChip 可能从 Amazon 的价格定位中获得 Trainium 的胜利（Ayar 的客户）
-> -> GUC 在 Ayar 中进行机架级设计
-> -> 通过 AMD、Alchip、MediaTek 和 NVIDIA 的投资，获得了 5 亿美元的资金用于大规模生产
5. ~ $AEVA 预计在 2026 年下半年开始大规模生产
6. $POET 预计在 2026 年下半年开始大规模生产，拥有像 Lumilens 这样的超大规模计算机供应商（“前三名超大规模计算机初始客户”）
7. TFLN + $SIVE 与 Lightium 合作开发 CW 激光器
8. 可能与 $MRVL Celestial 和 CPO 玩家如 Lightelligence/Lightmatter 建立直接关系
9. 在 Jabil 的季度财报中，多个新未披露的关系用于可插拔产品

根据 Trendforce 的最新报告，$AMD 和其他超大规模计算机公司正在尝试寻找长期协议（LTAs）用于连续波激光源，这将成为独立连续波源的直接催化剂。

当超大规模计算机供应商从 Jabil 到 O-Net 被激励去生产尽可能多的产品时：这对于 Sivers 的收入来说是非常重要的，相对于当前的估值来说，这看起来只是一个等待游戏。

即使在过去的一周里：

- $SIVE 为量产而进行了超额认购的机构融资... 这是很微妙的，因为 Sivers 是 fab-light，所以它不会在内部进行代工投资来扩大规模。可能是为了与 Win Semi 和其他公司（他们也提到了其他合作伙伴）合作，进行激光器扩大和代工分配。

所以，这可能是收入增长的重要信号。

- Sivers 也提到了在接下来的几个季度内完成纳斯达克上市的计划（我估计时间框架可能是 2026 年下半年或 2027 年第一季度）。

这将为并购努力提供资金，因为在当地瑞典市场的融资环境中，这是不可行的。

至于成为下一个 $LITE：

并购使他们的激光器更加有价值，因此下游知识产权收购 -> 合同制造，如 $FN 和其他公司，生产完整的 1.6T 可插拔产品或光学引擎。这是他们实现这一目标的方式，因为激光器阵列的平均销售价格（ASP）扩大，人们正在根据此进行建模，这不会带来 600 亿美元以上的估值。

在此期间，将会有很多桥接架构，如 NPO/可插拔产品等，以及关于某些架构延迟的噪音。

但市场误解了像 $LITE、$SIVE、$AAOI 等激光器公司被用于不同的架构，而不是仅仅查看某些被动光学组件。

所以，当市场看到“CPO延迟头条”时，算法会抛售受益于其他架构的激光器公司。

被纳入可插拔 1.6T 增长到 CPO 规模（Sivers 被纳入其中），有助于弥补收入增长的差距，直到 2027 年下半年规模扩大。

我个人持有长期观点，因为我以前从未见过一个价值 ~14 亿美元的公司与这么多超大规模计算机公司映射。

总结：
- 等待不同架构的量产拉动效应
-> 1.6T LRO/CPO 规模扩大，2026 年下半年开始，2027 年进入高量产
-> 2027 年下半年 CPO 规模扩大量产
- 等待纳斯达克上市，可能在 2026 年下半年或 2027 年第一季度，除非 Sivers 在此期间找到更具创意的股权融资方式。

2026-07-06 08:24

also mentioned NASDAQ listing completion targeted in the next few quarters (probably H2 2026 or Q1 2027 is my est. timeframe).

This would fund M&A efforts, since it's impossible with the fundraising environments in local Swedish markets.

As for becoming the next $LITE:

M&A makes their lasers more valuable, so downstream IP acqusition -> into contract manufacturing like $FN, and others to make the full 1.6T pluggable or optical engines. Is how they get there, since laser array ASP scaling that people are modeling off of, wouldn't command a $60B+ valuations.

There's going to be a lot of bridge architectures like NPO/pluggables, etc and noise around certain architectural delays in the meantime.

But markets misunderstand laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI and others are used across different architectures compared to if you just look at certain passive optical components.

So markets see "CPO delay headlines" algos sell off laser companies that benefit from other architectures.

Being included in the pluggable 1.6T ramp to CPO scale out (Which Sivers is included in), helps bridge revenue waiting gaps until scale up inflection point H2 2027.

I'm personally holding long term, since I haven't seen a ~$1.4B company mapping to this many hyperscalers before.

TLDR:
- Waiting on volume ramps from different architectures to play out across their hyperscaler supplier mapping
-> 1.6T LRO/CPO scale out late H2 2026 start into high volume ramp 2027
-> H2 2027 CPO scale up volume ramp
- Waiting on NASDAQ listing likely H2 2026/Q1 2027 for M&A efforts to fully take off, unless Sivers get more creative with equity financing in the meantime.

翻译：
我个人认为 $SIVE 可以成为下一个 $LITE。

在过去的几个月里，我们已经看到：

1. 与 O-Net 合作，将 ELS 推向大规模生产
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO 大规模生产信号，使用 Sivers 的可插拔产品具有“相对戏剧性的护城河”
3. $GFS SCALE 参考级激光器，用于超大规模计算机的可插拔、NPO、CPO
-> -> 其中 $AMD 和其他公司已转向 GFS 进行 CPO
4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA

2026-07-06 08:24

原文：
I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.

In the past few months alone, we've seen:

1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.
3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO.
-> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO.
4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO
-> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier.
-> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer)
-> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar.
-> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA
5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026.
6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer")
7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium
8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter.
9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts

With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LTAs for CW laser sources, serving as a direct catalyst for independent CW sources.

So when hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to O-Net are incentivized to mass produce as many as they can: That's very material for revenue for Sivers relative to current valuations, and it looks like just a waiting game.

Even in the past week:

- $SIVE raised an oversubscribed institutional round for volume ramp... This is very nuanced since Sivers is fab-light so it's not going to in-house foundry capex to scale. Likely toward Win Semi and others (they mentioned other partners too), for laser scaling + foundry allocations.

So this is likely signaling material for revenue ramp is coming.

- Sivers

<@&1519026403734061156>

<@&1519026403734061156>全球手机销量第一是谁？三星电子。三星为了把手机造好，发展了芯片/内存/存储/MICC/显示屏/，在他家的工厂里啥零件都能配齐。反观其他厂家啥啥都没有处处受制于人。波浪理论学习的微博视频

7月地狱难度，跌这么惨反弹这么弱

<@&1519026403734061156>

<@&1519026403734061156>#600879##航天电子# 上涨目标实现，收官。专栏 · 航天电子

2026-07-06 05:49

原文：
Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players.

Then regarding ASP updates:

- 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76%
- 3in InP substrates price hike 78%
- 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75%
- 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+
- Prices lower domestically in China as expected.

Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages.

My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand.

We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

翻译：
野村证券的报告将 $AXTI 和 $IQE 列为领先者。

关于平均销售价格（ASP）更新：

- 2英寸磷化铟（InP）基板价格上涨 42-76%
- 3英寸磷化铟基板价格上涨 78%
- 2英寸 EML 外延片价格上涨 50-75%
- 3英寸连续波（CW）外延片价格上涨约 40%+
- 中国国内价格如预期般下降。

超大规模企业对上游光子学的瓶颈确认验证……从价格、需求到供应短缺的所有方面。

我个人预期价格上涨会像 $SNDK 一样持续上涨，因为光学需求正在增加。

我们将看到这是否在另外 2 年的需求曲线中得到验证。

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates p...

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates:- 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76%- 3in InP substrates price hike 78%- 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75%- 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+- Prices lower domestically in China as expected.Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages.My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand. We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

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<@&1519026403734061156>#科创50##000688# 是从科创板（688 开头股票）里，选出市值最大、流动性最好的 50 只硬科技龙头，用来代表科创板整体走势，对标美股纳斯达克 100。中国的科技基本都在这里了。分享科创50指数的浪形总图。

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<@&1519026403734061156>#原油##CL!# 小级别反弹1段，正在回撤。图二分享监测点，只要不跌破监测点有望再涨1段。

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<@&1519026403734061156>#黄金##XAU# 说了“7月7号之前再创一个新高4203附近”，今天实现了，在7月6号到达4202.7。走得漂亮。有望发展为向上的推动浪。

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