我的关注

原文：
All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr":

My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing".

In the current market for optical products.

- No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine.

- I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover:

Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited.

They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp.

- TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings).

Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers.

"We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end.

Very strong statement to make about being majority market share.

- 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI)

q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?"

a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there.

Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility)

Q2 revenue:
- $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected
- adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61

Q3 guidance was most exciting:
$410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue
$1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS.

yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q.

So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.

翻译：
好，回到 $SMTC 这场“电影”：《瓶颈起飞了》：

我最喜欢的一句是：“当前可获得性比定价更重要。”

这是在当前光学产品市场里的情况。

-

目前预计已接单的光学订单不会在短期内出现需求侵蚀，这说明他们能很好地把成本上涨转嫁出去。

- 我其实最关心的是 HieFo 收购后 Semtech 的 CW 激光产品：

Semtech 预计用于收发器的 CW 激光收入将在 FY28 上半年开始贡献。公司明确表示产能受限。

和激光头部厂商相比，他们似乎仍明显落后，但在为 2027 年放量推进。

- TIA 和驱动器方案的需求依然极强（$AAOI 财报也证实了这一点）。

公司继续加深与所有头部超大规模云厂商的合作。

“我们现在已经在为每一家模块供应商做设计”，预计到年底 1.6T FiberEdge（TIA + driver）将拿下 50% 以上市场份额。

对自己将成为多数份额的表述，非常强势。

- 1.6T FiberEdge 的认证进度比预期更早完成（对可插拔厂商来说是很好的映射参考，比如 AOI）

问：“你们觉得这部分 backlog 会延续到 2028 年多久？”

答：本财年剩余部分的 backlog，我们的目标已经全部锁定。对于下一年，我们大概已经完成 70% 多。

管理层表示，现有产能到 FY2028 可能都不够，尤其是下半年（需求可见度很强）。

Q2 营收：
- $341.9M，预期约 $329M
- 调整后 EPS 为 $0.71，预期为 $0.61

Q3 指引最让人兴奋：
$410M 营收，对比预期约 $360M
$1.05 EPS，对比 $0.73 EPS。

是啊……看看这漂亮的营收环比拐点就知道了。

所以这是一次巨大的超预期，1.6T 放量的传导非常强。我没持有 Semtech，但这次财报真的太惊艳了。

原文：
Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...

翻译：
在发现一个内存概念股太有意思，忍不住去研究之后，我对 $SMTC 和今天其他所有财报都失去兴趣了……