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TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly c...

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways:1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations"Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including:- Optical chips.- Electrical chips.- PCBs.- Other module materialsFrom last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customersPositive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.

設想兩種情境|交易筆記 2026-07-13

因週末美伊再發衝突,今天油價大漲、美股下跌。按理說,油價大漲應該對傳統行業影響最大(比如航空運輸業),然而今天領跌的卻是半導體和AI供應鏈相關板塊。這說明,美伊衝突對美股市場的影響已經邊際效應遞減,現在市場就是在借題發揮拋售前期瘋炒的股票(去槓桿)。正如我之前X貼文所述,自從領頭羊 MU 和 SNDK 跌破20均線以來,半導體指數就一蹶不振,市場暫時失去了「神」,對納指的影響也就非常負面。在舊神復活或新神誕生之前,這樣的市場沒有參與價值。在之前的筆記中,我提到過一個重要的時間窗口。目前看來,兩大指數均未能利用好這個機會發展出一波向上的行情——多頭錯失良機之後,空頭的勢力將逐步佔優。這段時間我一直在說指數橫向波動,在均線靠近之後會有方向選擇。下面是我設想的兩種情形,先讓腦子看見。從明日起,納指期貨的20抵扣價的運行區間將持續高於當前價,20均線組將拐頭向下運行。若要避免這種情形,價格必須儘快回到20均線上方運行,這樣至少保證EMA均線向上運行。比較弱勢的情況是,價格持續運行在20均線下方,均線拐頭向下對價格造成壓力,則指數會慣性下跌。一旦完成了20均線組與60均線組空頭交叉,則會迎來一波快速下跌。相關內容:兩類均線的特點第一種情形:向上發展。核心要點:價格要盡快回到所有均線上方,20均線組向上運行。第二種情形:向下發展。核心要點:價格在20均線組下方運行超過3天,20均線組向下運行。明天(7月14日)將有CPI數據公布,這是近期能夠改變市場慣性最重要的外力之一,拭目以待。目前我沒有做任何對沖保護,我需要看到CPI公布後的市場表現,我需要有更多的證據證明趨勢對我不利。—————————本文非投資建議,請參閱 【讀者須知】。

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Ligh...

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:- $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacityI’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO.A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies…If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers.This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

4.76加了5.0卖出的那部分conl

4.76加了5.0卖出的那部分conl

12.2加了12.5卖出的那部分tsll

12.2加了12.5卖出的那部分tsll

38.9加了三分之一常规仓的iren

38.9加了三分之一常规仓的iren

周五收盘是7575 按7550是日k级别压力 今天没有讲话 波动在50-60之间 7515-7525是支撑区域

周五收盘是7575 按7550是日k级别压力 今天没有讲话 波动在50-60之间 7515-7525是支撑区域

顺哥。从系统来看,7/17 做空大盘的空单早上退出一点,但是硬件板块,半导体,存储板块这些空单没有退。所以我认为现在股市升跌都非常不均匀。以前没有升的板块...

顺哥。从系统来看,7/17 做空大盘的空单早上退出一点,但是硬件板块,半导体,存储板块这些空单没有退。所以我认为现在股市升跌都非常不均匀。以前没有升的板块应该补升,xlf xlu xlv Igv 这些都有资金流入。以前太热门板块和个股都有资金流出。所以现在这个股市大盘属于震荡. 牛熊两边都很难胜出。我个人认为美联储会议之后就比较明朗。现在大家小打小闹玩玩就行了。到时间重仓正股我会告知的

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A股的反弹是为了更大的减持做准备 🤣️

A股的反弹是为了更大的减持做准备 🤣️

顺哥。今天大盘我已经说过不会太大跌幅。但是个别以前热门板块都会跌幅。半导体,存储板块,Spcx 这些都会跌,因为韩国股民和大机构都急着套现。Space X 看来要...

顺哥。今天大盘我已经说过不会太大跌幅。但是个别以前热门板块都会跌幅。半导体,存储板块,Spcx 这些都会跌,因为韩国股民和大机构都急着套现。Space X 看来要跌破IPO 135 价钱。现在这些热门股和硬件股都是投资者抛弃的股票。所以我们暂时要管制自己。等待美联储消息再买。但是sell put 继续soxl. 大道至简,继续躺平赚钱

A股的反弹是为了更大的减持做准备

A股的反弹是为了更大的减持做准备

11.94出一半 11.65 的nok

11.94出一半 11.65 的nok

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