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原文：
$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters).

- Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources.

- Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products

CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference...

But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from:

- Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs.

- Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs.

And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates.

+1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.

翻译：
英特尔（$INTC）和AMD即将与中国客户签署AI数据中心CPU长期协议（LTA）（路透社）。

- 自年初以来，中国一些CPU产品的价格已上涨超过40%（来源）。

- 部分产品的月度增长率超过10%

由于AI推理，CPU已经成为瓶颈，CPU比例也因此受到影响...

但LTAs的更广泛趋势似乎正在出现：

- 内存领域，$MU、Samsung、$SNDK和SK Hynix签署了DRAM/NAND LTAs。

- 光子学领域，$LITE、$COHR签署了EML LTAs。最近Trendforce报告称，$AMD和超大规模企业正在追求CW LTAs。

从MLCCs到基板，肯定还有很多其他领域。

对于瓶颈投资者来说，这是一个好消息... 如果你有多年跨度的“拿货或付款”需求，很难成为“即将破裂的泡沫”。

原文：
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts:

Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts.

Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.

And I remain convinced of that conclusion".

It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise.

In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated:

"We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..."

And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones.

Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp.

On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement:

"We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand).

Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM.

Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR:

Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space.

He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

翻译：
一些来自 $TSLA 财报的笔记：

埃隆·马斯克说：“我认为 Optimus

将是有史以来最大的产品”（来自 Q2 财报）。

甚至从 Q1 开始，埃隆就表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是有史以来最大的产品。

我仍然坚信这一结论”。

很少见到埃隆对人形机器人在方向和市场规模方面表现出如此高的信心。

在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示：

“我们看到同样的投资流向内存和新的特定项目，如金属注射成型零件、柔性印刷电路和各种非线性技术...”

并且他们不得不从头开始建立新的供应链。因此，寻找新的供应链供应商机会将会很有趣，除了已知的供应商之外。

刚刚查看了旧的幻灯片，弗里蒙特工厂的产能目标是 100 万，德州超级工厂的产能目标是 1000 万，因此在规模化方面，$TSLA 似乎是美国的明确领导者。如果你正在看 S 曲线机会的增长。

顺便提一下，埃隆还向 $MU 致敬，可能是因为他们提供了合理的长期协议，他说：

“我们非常感谢美光为特斯拉在未来几年腾出空间，并以合理的条件提供了大量的配额，考虑到当前内存的疯狂定价”（仅用于结构性内存需求）。

埃隆还向松下致敬，松下已经投资了数十亿美元来增加电池生产（需要更深入地研究松下），然后是三星和 $TSM。

特斯拉财报的总结：

埃隆通常在判断未来发展方向方面是正确的，例如电动汽车或太空领域。

他似乎对人形机器人非常乐观。 🚀💻