我的关注

原文：
Just a TLDR of this week:

Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute.
-> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr.

Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over.
-> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike.

Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble.
-> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀

Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks.
-> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%

翻译：
本周简要概述：

媒体：超大规模云计算公司过度扩张，现在正在出售多余的计算资源。
-> $GOOGL、$MSFT、$META 和 $AMZN：计算需求远远超过容量。资本支出激增。

机构：紧急加息或三次加息，结果都一样。
-> 凯文·沃什：不会加息。

零售/媒体：人工智能正在崩溃，因为它是一个泡沫。
-> 城堡投资集团正在寻求购买人工智能杠杆对冲基金头寸：👀

吉姆·克莱默：卖掉所有杠杆式数据中心股票。
-> 韩国人：SK海力士 +30%，三星 +26.81%

原文：
Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE.

Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026.

But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026.

So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production.

On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.

翻译：
现在我想得更多，$POET 光学互连器件实际上比我想象中与 $SIVE 有更多的关联。

最初的表述是“准备就绪”以应对 2026 年底。

但 $POET 升级了这个表述，宣布将在 2026 年底与 Sivers 激光器实现“生产”。

因此，来自 $JBL 到 $POET的大批量订单应该会在 2027 年上半年到来。这有一定的道理，因为 Sivers 曾为未来大规模生产而进行了超额认购的机构融资。

顺便说一下，已经八月了，距离 2027 年只有 5 个月了……这是我预测玻璃基板、CPO、800V 和新架构将实现大规模生产的转折窗口。 🙃

原文：
For $XFAB ER transcript:

Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability.

- $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics".

- "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB"

So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong.

At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general.

So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v.

Okay back to the ER:

- "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners.

I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months.

- Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off).

So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities.

TLDR:
- Current revenue numbers not as impressive.
- $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis)
- 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027)
- Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production

Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.

翻译：
关于 $XFAB 收入报告的内容：

为了回顾一下，我之前关于 $XFAB 代工厂增长机会的想法源自于 SiC 在 800v 和 photonixfab/MTP 在 CPO 应用的潜力。

- $XFAB：”我们在共包光学方面取得了进展“。

- ”转向 800v... 预计将支持 SiC 和 GaN 对于 XFAB 的需求“

所以那些自信地发布负面信息关于 $XFAB 的分析师/人士，他们说

$XFAB ”对 800V、光学、CPO 没有任何接触“，结果被证明是完全错误的。

当时我分享我的想法时，行业资料显示 ASE 和其他公司提到了 photonixfab + XFAB 作为欧洲即将到来的 CPO 玩家。并且文件显示他们在 $NVTS / $POWI 等公司中有接触。

很高兴 $XFAB 明确澄清了他们正在开发 CPO/800v。

好了，回到收入报告：

- ”我们预计光学的大规模生产将在 2028 年开始“。 公司目前与关键合作伙伴合作开发了三个硅光子项目。

我曾经认为它将在 2027 年下半年开始增长，但可能提前了几个月。

- 获得了多个新的数据中心设计订单，例如 3 个新的 SiC 设计订单（符合 2027 年 800v 部署开始时的增长趋势）。

所以，一旦这些订单在 2027-2028 年开始增长（市场往往会提前定价），我预计 $XFAB 将根据增长机会被重新评估。

总结：
- 目前的收入数字并不令人印象深刻。
- $XFAB 确认了直接接触 CPO 和 800V 转变（对我的论点来说是最大的胜利）
- 800V 接触机会为 SiC （应该在 2027 年）
- 时间表是 2028 年光学的大规模生产增长

很高兴我的关于 CPO/800V 的接触论点得到了这一收入报告的确认。可能需要等待一段时间才能看到收入增长。 🚀💡📈