原文：
Let’s put it this way:
Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover.
And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes.
I see it as long term ownership over:
- the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4
- 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI
- leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers
- leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme
And so on… At cheaper valuations.
While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change.
NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes:
Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile)
But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit.
I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure.
If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.
翻译：
我们可以这样看：
零售投资者认为30-60%的下跌是一把“落刀”，持有者永远无法恢复。
他们最终会在看到波动的技术分析图表和人们将有价值的资源与表情包进行比较后恐慌性抛售。
我认为长期持有更为重要，例如：
- 下一个超级扩张者$NBIS，预计第四季度收入达到70-90亿美元
- 占有光纤供应链40%的$AXTI
- 下一个光学转型的领导者$SIVE，采用CW DFB激光器
- 未来万亿美元市场中美国人形机器人领导者$CCXI
等等，在更低的估值下。
虽然我可能会通过降低杠杆或对冲自己的投资组合来应对，但如果投资理念没有改变，我个人不会在价格下跌时惊慌失措。
不构成投资建议，显然取决于人们的投资时间框架：
对于那些依赖投资来支付房租或学费的人来说，崩盘将会改变他们的生活。（这就是为什么我个人认为其他人应该自己做研究，选择符合自己风险承受能力的长期投资）
但我的个人目标是最大限度地接触下一代超级周期，在它们到来之前。
我认为机构也持有相同的观点，这就是为什么在最大化他们的接触度的过程中会出现很多人为制造的波动。
如果一个投资理念最终被证明是正确的，估值应该在长期内得到反映。
Let’s put it this way:
Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover.
And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes.
I see it as long term ownership over:
- the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4
- 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI
- leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers
- leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme
And so on… At cheaper valuations.
While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change.
NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes:
Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile)
But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit.
I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure.
If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.
翻译：
我们可以这样看：
零售投资者认为30-60%的下跌是一把“落刀”，持有者永远无法恢复。
他们最终会在看到波动的技术分析图表和人们将有价值的资源与表情包进行比较后恐慌性抛售。
我认为长期持有更为重要，例如：
- 下一个超级扩张者$NBIS，预计第四季度收入达到70-90亿美元
- 占有光纤供应链40%的$AXTI
- 下一个光学转型的领导者$SIVE，采用CW DFB激光器
- 未来万亿美元市场中美国人形机器人领导者$CCXI
等等，在更低的估值下。
虽然我可能会通过降低杠杆或对冲自己的投资组合来应对，但如果投资理念没有改变，我个人不会在价格下跌时惊慌失措。
不构成投资建议，显然取决于人们的投资时间框架：
对于那些依赖投资来支付房租或学费的人来说，崩盘将会改变他们的生活。（这就是为什么我个人认为其他人应该自己做研究，选择符合自己风险承受能力的长期投资）
但我的个人目标是最大限度地接触下一代超级周期，在它们到来之前。
我认为机构也持有相同的观点，这就是为什么在最大化他们的接触度的过程中会出现很多人为制造的波动。
如果一个投资理念最终被证明是正确的，估值应该在长期内得到反映。
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