Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 report...
Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation.After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place...So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed:$LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029.$SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers.$TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void.$AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed.$IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared.$AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared.As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026.Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago.Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals.Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops.And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that.Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.Lee: 40% swing from the panic/X hysteria lows.I would not rely on X is an indicator but it can be a good contrarian tool.More to the point I think photonic sector is starting to bottom. $SIVE