我的关注

8月9日，行情都在横着，上面给的这些点挂着，等来流动性走起来看看能不能做上，这种行情努力也是徒劳的。

明后2天，我的判断是行情更可能向上发起正式攻击，先向上测试65200，收上以后再看65400和65700。真正的分水岭在明天早上8点，日线和周线同时收线，周线若收在65400上方，上周的阴线被吞回，反弹升级成周线级别。反向风险只有一个，就是4小时收在64400下方，区间震荡平台和20日均线一起失守，就只能按假突破处理，回看64100和63800一带，继续跌破则横久必跌形成回落

撤，不挂了，没挂到

Btc
方向：多
建仓：64700-63800
止损：63400
止盈：65400-66100-66800
进场灵活，不必踩点。

2026年8月9日（周日）
盘面基调：周线明天早上8点收线，眼下还在6月底下探收回后的大区间里消化；今天日内震荡偏多，重心偏上，持仓没退，先守住64700一带的平台下沿，再向上测试65300一带的压力，4小时收在65300上方打开向上空间；4小时收回64400下方，偏上判断作废。
BTC核心关键位：64700
BTC日线多空分界线：64400
上方压力位：65300、65800、67000
下方支撑位：64600、64100、63700
💬 回复 大镖客·Andy (@dbk9527)
Btc
方向：空
建仓：65600-66200
止损：66700
止盈：64900-64200-63500
进场灵活，不必踩点。挂着

睡了

原文：
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections.

Given recent industry earnings:

> $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck).

> $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines)

> US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink)

> AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers.

The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too.

Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.

翻译：
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 每年中位数容量收入预测约为 4.27 亿美元的好时机。

考虑到最近的行业盈利能力：

> $AAOI 提到收发器的需求失衡为 +20-40%（激光器是瓶颈）。

> $MTSI 表示许多“客户由于一般的磷化铟 DFB 激光器供应短缺而急切地来找我们”（在其他产品线中）。

> 美国提议禁止新型中国光学收发器（Innolight/Eoptolink）。

> AOI 由于激光器被分配给收发器而未能在第一代 CPO 部署中发挥重要作用。

可以看出，可能可以将相同的容量需求吸收模型应用于 $AAOI，也可以应用于其他激光器玩家，如 Sivers。

考虑到磷化铟 CW DFB 容量的普遍短缺和需求失衡。

小玩儿了一下，准备睡觉。

原文：
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS:

First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through:

> $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings

> $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings

> $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings.

Now, time to look at Nebius:

-> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power.
-> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride
-> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter.

Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge?

-> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good.

Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU

翻译：
今天我要写一个周末指南，教你如何对 $NBIS 进行尽职调查（DD）：

首先，你需要查看超大规模云计算公司的财报，以了解人工智能云计算的趋势：

> $GOOGL：报告人工智能云计算需求、订单和利润率增加的创纪录财报

> $AMZN：报告人工智能云计算需求、订单和利润率增加的创纪录财报

> $META：报告可用容量的价格高于预期的财报

现在，来看看 Nebius：

-> $NBIS：预计到第四季度收入将增长到 700-900 亿美元，利润率增长，预计签订 4GW 以上的电力合同
-> 预计 Uber/Waymo 将分拆，更加关注 Avride
-> 预计 Clickhouse 每季度都在迅速增长

看起来很糟糕！但是接下来，你需要一个对冲策略？

-> 哇！一位 $NIKE 品牌高管，在股票过去 5 年下跌 75% 后，去了 $LULU 去拯救该品牌？Lululemon 看起来很不错

结论：做空 Nebius，买入 $LULU

原文：
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung.

As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck.

This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again.

The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there.

For photonics:

> We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop.

> We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls.

Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations.

Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35...

But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections)

For Memory:

I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago.

Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world.

There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme.

But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural.

And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year.

People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness).

I can't tell others what to to do:

But $AAOI