⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
陈哥合约交易策略
BTC，63300附近，做多
止损预计：61800
止盈预计：66100
⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
陈哥合约交易策略
BTC，63300附近，做多
止损预计：61800
止盈预计：66100
⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Comments
Unlock
觅信聚合
我的关注
黄金和比特币更受交易者的青睐。
Comments
Unlock
Edited
现在成交情况会比前几天好一些，黄金，白银更明显，连续上涨，脱离了原来的横盘区，而比特币相对停滞不前。
Comments
Unlock
Yuden is probably cleaner MLCC bottleneck exposure, it's broadening past AI servers this month.
And all indicators looks like MLCC will get more bottlenecked with lead times increasing.
Main problem is Japanese suppliers don't like to price hike very much.
TLDR:
- Low MC relative to global MLCC production
- MLCC Bottleneck broadening to eg. consumer/automotive recently
- Early cycle of price hikes.
Is probably why SA took positions.
They dont really need to win AI server market share, since MLCC is tightening into broader cateogries, and this company has 11.4% share of total market (which becomes a lot more strategically valuable).
Still looking into the sector more, these are just initial thoughts
翻译：
关于太阳诱电和局势感知的前峰值约16%股份的更多思考：
对于整个MLCC市场，2025年估计如下：
-村田：40.8%
-三星电子机械：22.5%
-太阳诱电：11.3%
作为前三大供应商，太阳诱电成为第三大MLCC制造商。
->村田有点大（1010亿美元市值）
->三星的曝光度不够干净，例如机器人等（810亿美元市值）
->太阳诱电是最小的玩家（约95亿美元），但MLCC曝光度最高。
很多人取笑说村田和三星占据了大部分AI曝光度，所以购买太阳诱电是愚蠢的。
他们的AI数据中心曝光度不如其他公司，但相对于市值来说，曝光度却高于人们的想象。
由于村田和三星合计占据了85%，而其他供应商合计仅占15%，但即使是较小的曝光度也会因市值而变得有意义。
我也将MLCC视为一种类似于HBM的内存玩家，并将传统的NAND/DRAM视为其他板块的投资模型：
例如，2026年初，Trendforce表示，消费级MLCC被低估利用。
但本月，Trendforce表示，生产资源转向了AI服务器，导致了材料约束和库存短缺，影响了汽车和工业等领域（更广泛的MLCC领域，太阳诱电凭借11.3%的市场份额而受到影响）。
然后，三星电子机械公司上个月宣布了30%的价格上涨，太阳诱电的高容量汽车产品价格上涨了10-30%，消费品价格上涨了6-13%，九月份的发货量有了修订，并且有长期协议的指标。
根据太阳诱电自己的预测，AI服务器MLCC销售额在2026年3月财年增长了约30-35%，并且同比增长了80%。看起来，这是MLCC周期的早期阶段。
顺便提一下，新兴业务包括微电池、燃料电池和太阳能电池，这很有趣。
相对于市值，我认为太阳诱电可能是最干净的MLCC瓶颈曝光度，它正在扩展到AI服务器以外的领域。
所有指标表明，MLCC将变得更加紧张，交货时间也会增加。
主要问题是，日本供应商不喜欢大幅提高价格。
总结：
- 市值相对于全球MLCC生产较低
- MLCC瓶颈正在扩展到消费和汽车等领域
- 价格上涨的早期阶段。
这可能是SA采取行动的原因。
他们不需要赢得AI服务器市场份额，因为MLCC正在变得更加紧张，而这家公司拥有11.4%的市场份额（这变得更加具有战略价值）。
我仍在研究这个领域，这些只是初步的想法。
And all indicators looks like MLCC will get more bottlenecked with lead times increasing.
Main problem is Japanese suppliers don't like to price hike very much.
TLDR:
- Low MC relative to global MLCC production
- MLCC Bottleneck broadening to eg. consumer/automotive recently
- Early cycle of price hikes.
Is probably why SA took positions.
They dont really need to win AI server market share, since MLCC is tightening into broader cateogries, and this company has 11.4% share of total market (which becomes a lot more strategically valuable).
Still looking into the sector more, these are just initial thoughts
翻译：
关于太阳诱电和局势感知的前峰值约16%股份的更多思考：
对于整个MLCC市场，2025年估计如下：
-村田：40.8%
-三星电子机械：22.5%
-太阳诱电：11.3%
作为前三大供应商，太阳诱电成为第三大MLCC制造商。
->村田有点大（1010亿美元市值）
->三星的曝光度不够干净，例如机器人等（810亿美元市值）
->太阳诱电是最小的玩家（约95亿美元），但MLCC曝光度最高。
很多人取笑说村田和三星占据了大部分AI曝光度，所以购买太阳诱电是愚蠢的。
他们的AI数据中心曝光度不如其他公司，但相对于市值来说，曝光度却高于人们的想象。
由于村田和三星合计占据了85%，而其他供应商合计仅占15%，但即使是较小的曝光度也会因市值而变得有意义。
我也将MLCC视为一种类似于HBM的内存玩家，并将传统的NAND/DRAM视为其他板块的投资模型：
例如，2026年初，Trendforce表示，消费级MLCC被低估利用。
但本月，Trendforce表示，生产资源转向了AI服务器，导致了材料约束和库存短缺，影响了汽车和工业等领域（更广泛的MLCC领域，太阳诱电凭借11.3%的市场份额而受到影响）。
然后，三星电子机械公司上个月宣布了30%的价格上涨，太阳诱电的高容量汽车产品价格上涨了10-30%，消费品价格上涨了6-13%，九月份的发货量有了修订，并且有长期协议的指标。
根据太阳诱电自己的预测，AI服务器MLCC销售额在2026年3月财年增长了约30-35%，并且同比增长了80%。看起来，这是MLCC周期的早期阶段。
顺便提一下，新兴业务包括微电池、燃料电池和太阳能电池，这很有趣。
相对于市值，我认为太阳诱电可能是最干净的MLCC瓶颈曝光度，它正在扩展到AI服务器以外的领域。
所有指标表明，MLCC将变得更加紧张，交货时间也会增加。
主要问题是，日本供应商不喜欢大幅提高价格。
总结：
- 市值相对于全球MLCC生产较低
- MLCC瓶颈正在扩展到消费和汽车等领域
- 价格上涨的早期阶段。
这可能是SA采取行动的原因。
他们不需要赢得AI服务器市场份额，因为MLCC正在变得更加紧张，而这家公司拥有11.4%的市场份额（这变得更加具有战略价值）。
我仍在研究这个领域，这些只是初步的想法。
Comments
Unlock
原文：
Just some more thoughts on Taiyo Yuden and the Situational awareness former peak ~16% stake:
For the entire MLCC Market, MS in 2025 est. it looked like:
- Murata: 40.8%
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics: 22.5%
- Taiyo Yuden: 11.3%
As the top 3 suppliers, making it the 3rd largest MLCC manufacturer.
-> Murata is a little big ($101B MC)
-> Samsung not the cleanest exposure, eg. robotics, and others ($81B MC),
-> Taiyo Yuden is the smallest player (~$9.5B), which highest exposure to MLCC.
Lot of people were making fun and saying Murata/Samsung make up majority of the AI exposure, so it's stupid to buy Taiyo Yuden.
They don't have as much AI DC exposure as the others, but relative to the MC it's higher than people think.
Since there was a note that that Murata/Samsung were combined 85%, and every other supplier combined would be 15%, but even smaller exposure would be meaningful given MC.
I also kinda treat MLCCs somewhat similar to HBM with memory players, and legacy NAND/DRAM like MLCCs for other segments as an investment model:
eg: earlier in 2026, Trendforce stated broader consumer MLCCs were underutilized.
But this month, Trendofrce stated production resources shifted toward AI servers, causing material constraints/inventory shortages with automotive/industrial/etc (broader MLCCs that Taiyo touches given that 11.3% market share).
And then theres Samsung Electro-mechanics broad 30% price hike the other month. Taiyo 10-30% high capactance auto products, 6-13% hikes on consumer products, price revision for Sept shipments, with LTA indicators.
For their own forcases Taiyo said AI server MLCC sales grew around 30-35% in FY March 2026, and indicated 80% growth for Y/Y. So looks like its an early part of the MLCC cycle
on a side note: emerging business were microbatteries, fuel cells, solar cells which is kinda interesting.
Relative to MC: I'd say Taiyo
Just some more thoughts on Taiyo Yuden and the Situational awareness former peak ~16% stake:
For the entire MLCC Market, MS in 2025 est. it looked like:
- Murata: 40.8%
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics: 22.5%
- Taiyo Yuden: 11.3%
As the top 3 suppliers, making it the 3rd largest MLCC manufacturer.
-> Murata is a little big ($101B MC)
-> Samsung not the cleanest exposure, eg. robotics, and others ($81B MC),
-> Taiyo Yuden is the smallest player (~$9.5B), which highest exposure to MLCC.
Lot of people were making fun and saying Murata/Samsung make up majority of the AI exposure, so it's stupid to buy Taiyo Yuden.
They don't have as much AI DC exposure as the others, but relative to the MC it's higher than people think.
Since there was a note that that Murata/Samsung were combined 85%, and every other supplier combined would be 15%, but even smaller exposure would be meaningful given MC.
I also kinda treat MLCCs somewhat similar to HBM with memory players, and legacy NAND/DRAM like MLCCs for other segments as an investment model:
eg: earlier in 2026, Trendforce stated broader consumer MLCCs were underutilized.
But this month, Trendofrce stated production resources shifted toward AI servers, causing material constraints/inventory shortages with automotive/industrial/etc (broader MLCCs that Taiyo touches given that 11.3% market share).
And then theres Samsung Electro-mechanics broad 30% price hike the other month. Taiyo 10-30% high capactance auto products, 6-13% hikes on consumer products, price revision for Sept shipments, with LTA indicators.
For their own forcases Taiyo said AI server MLCC sales grew around 30-35% in FY March 2026, and indicated 80% growth for Y/Y. So looks like its an early part of the MLCC cycle
on a side note: emerging business were microbatteries, fuel cells, solar cells which is kinda interesting.
Relative to MC: I'd say Taiyo
Comments
Unlock
SKHY 海力士 委托 170附近 空
止损：小时级别收盘价站稳 178
止盈：163-157-148-125
止损：小时级别收盘价站稳 178
止盈：163-157-148-125
Comments
Unlock
这个继续委托
Comments
Unlock
比特币 62650附近 做多
止损：小时级别有效跌破62000
止盈：63050-63600-64100
止损：小时级别有效跌破62000
止盈：63050-63600-64100
Comments
Unlock
https://youtu.be/i3xyz4OoZlY?si=PKFtw5xoW1D0tDsI
近期行情波动率极低，机会少不确定性高，不可重...
Telegram免费群组：
https://t.me/TraderfenggeTG
Telegram电报私聊：
https://t.me/Traderfengge
官方推特：
https://twitter.com/Traderfengge
邮箱联系:
[email protected]
如果私信发不了消息，可能是电报对你的手机号段的限制，可以在youtube搜索【电报解除+86私聊限制教程】，或使用官方...
近期行情波动率极低，机会少不确定性高，不可重...
Telegram免费群组：
https://t.me/TraderfenggeTG
Telegram电报私聊：
https://t.me/Traderfengge
官方推特：
https://twitter.com/Traderfengge
邮箱联系:
[email protected]
如果私信发不了消息，可能是电报对你的手机号段的限制，可以在youtube搜索【电报解除+86私聊限制教程】，或使用官方...
Comments
Unlock
https://youtu.be/uZH6pitT6T8
比特幣，BTC窄幅震蕩是假象？持倉悄悄爬上近期高...
專注分析BTC比特幣日內短線行情走勢
社群：https://t.me/SwordsmanDBK
本人：https://t.me/dbk9527
註冊交易bitget交易所，即刻加入！
帮助节约手续费20%-50%，Bitget注册链接
https://partner.bitget.cafe/bg/791k7481
#Bitcoin #BTC #比特币 #比特幣 #加密货币 #币圈 #以太坊 #ETH #BTC行情 #比特币...
比特幣，BTC窄幅震蕩是假象？持倉悄悄爬上近期高...
專注分析BTC比特幣日內短線行情走勢
社群：https://t.me/SwordsmanDBK
本人：https://t.me/dbk9527
註冊交易bitget交易所，即刻加入！
帮助节约手续费20%-50%，Bitget注册链接
https://partner.bitget.cafe/bg/791k7481
#Bitcoin #BTC #比特币 #比特幣 #加密货币 #币圈 #以太坊 #ETH #BTC行情 #比特币...
Comments
Unlock
LITE 现价935附近做空
止损：985
止盈：835
轻仓介入……
止损：985
止盈：835
轻仓介入……
Comments
Unlock
Comments
Unlock
8月13日，昨天CPI给了市场不加息的逻辑，行情再次反弹了一下，结果四小时级别出现了两根阴线，昨天我们视频讲了这个四小时级别阴线过不去那就要关注这个压力，那这里是不是双管齐下了。
看这个样子这里是要有在震荡的行情了。
看这个样子这里是要有在震荡的行情了。
Comments
Unlock
🔄
Loading...