原文：
Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.
Quantum barely has any revenue.
$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)
$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.
Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.
So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.
Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).
Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.
Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.
Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back.
But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out.
Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.
翻译：
光子技术有实际的收入数据支持，并且得到了$NVDA推崇的架构转变。
量子技术几乎没有任何收入。
$LITE已经售出了未来2年的产品（根据$POET的年度股东大会），可能会持续到2029年。Lumentum的生产能力已经非常紧张，以至于他们从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（从财报中可以看出）。
$COHR受到瓶颈限制，所以他们从Lumentum购买外部模态锁定激光器。
然后，$AAOI带来了“美国制造”的独立连续波生产能力，预计到2027年上半年每季度收入将达到14亿美元，今天的市值仅为930亿美元。
因此，像$AAOI或$SIVE这样的独立玩家现在拥有的所有连续波生产能力可能都会变得稀缺。
根据Trendforce的报告，许多其他超大规模企业已经开始了长期协议讨论。像$AMD这样的玩家目前正在与$AAOI（通过Rosenblatt渠道）等玩家进行谈判。
Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.
Quantum barely has any revenue.
$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)
$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.
Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.
So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.
Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).
Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.
Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.
Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back.
But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out.
Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.
翻译：
光子技术有实际的收入数据支持，并且得到了$NVDA推崇的架构转变。
量子技术几乎没有任何收入。
$LITE已经售出了未来2年的产品（根据$POET的年度股东大会），可能会持续到2029年。Lumentum的生产能力已经非常紧张，以至于他们从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（从财报中可以看出）。
$COHR受到瓶颈限制，所以他们从Lumentum购买外部模态锁定激光器。
然后，$AAOI带来了“美国制造”的独立连续波生产能力，预计到2027年上半年每季度收入将达到14亿美元，今天的市值仅为930亿美元。
因此，像$AAOI或$SIVE这样的独立玩家现在拥有的所有连续波生产能力可能都会变得稀缺。
根据Trendforce的报告，许多其他超大规模企业已经开始了长期协议讨论。像$AMD这样的玩家目前正在与$AAOI（通过Rosenblatt渠道）等玩家进行谈判。
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