我的关注

原文：
Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo.

Personal Rankings:

1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI
2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company)
3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now.

With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player.

Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors.

NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization.

No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV:

Which would value Figure at $156B...

While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today.

So my personal preference is $CCXI.

翻译：
Agility Robotics 在商业化方面是美国最顶尖的人形机器人公司。

个人排名：

1. 通过 $CCXI 的 Agility Robotics
2. $TSLA 的 Optimus （市值超过 1 万亿美元的公司）
3. Figure 的估值为 2025 年的 390 亿美元，可能现在已经更高了。

特斯拉可能会在一年内占据领先地位。因此，以 16 美元的价格，你已经拥有了一个市值约为 40 亿美元的前期人形机器人公司。

这已经进入了 $AMZN 和 $MELI 的范围（最初的理想用例，在转向通用之前），其中 $AMZN、$NVDA、Softbank、富士康和其他公司都是投资者。

非专业建议，但以这样的估值... 现在有机会直接接触到第一个人形机器人公司，它可能在商业化方面比 Figure 更进一步。

对 Robostrategy 没有恶意，但它的价格已经超过了 4 倍以上的净资产值：

这将使 Figure 的估值达到 1560 亿美元...

而 Agility 的估值仅为 40 亿美元。

所以我的个人偏好是 $CCXI。

原文：
Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.

Quantum barely has any revenue.

$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)

$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.

Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.

So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.

Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).

Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.

Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.

Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back.

But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out.

Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.

翻译：
光子技术有实际的收入数据支持，并且得到了$NVDA推崇的架构转变。

量子技术几乎没有任何收入。

$LITE已经售出了未来2年的产品（根据$POET的年度股东大会），可能会持续到2029年。Lumentum的生产能力已经非常紧张，以至于他们从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（从财报中可以看出）。

$COHR受到瓶颈限制，所以他们从Lumentum购买外部模态锁定激光器。

然后，$AAOI带来了“美国制造”的独立连续波生产能力，预计到2027年上半年每季度收入将达到14亿美元，今天的市值仅为930亿美元。

因此，像$AAOI或$SIVE这样的独立玩家现在拥有的所有连续波生产能力可能都会变得稀缺。

根据Trendforce的报告，许多其他超大规模企业已经开始了长期协议讨论。像$AMD这样的玩家目前正在与$AAOI（通过Rosenblatt渠道）等玩家进行谈判。

从主题上讲，未来两年是9倍的市场规模，达到1540亿美元（根据高盛的报告），尤其是规模扩大/规模提升的美元内容增加了16倍/45倍。

然后还有来自$META的整体主题人工智能下降，这被广泛误解，因为人们混淆了“过剩容量”的含义。正如瑞银所提到的，Meta计划提供云服务并不是新消息。

彭博社只是有发布信息的倾向，这些信息会导致半导体行业（如Nvidia出口管制几个月前）出现灾难性下跌。

但是我熟悉我所持有的东西，所以我相信这些数字最终会实现。

尤其是当所有主要玩家都售罄时，基本面最终会赶上。