我的关注

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares:The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29.Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.

<@&1519026403734061156>科创50指数每个交易日定投1000元，目前已投20000元，亏损13%，2700元。科创50指数现在是1715点，假设到2026年底下跌到1000点（崩盘式下跌）。仍然每个交易日定投1000元。则到年底共计亏损26%。稍微一个反弹就进入盈利。“定投最欢迎的是下跌”。因为它是“建仓”，要的是更多的份额，有了更多的份额才能得到更多的分红，有了更多的分红才能复投，利滚利无穷尽。

<@&1519026403734061156>#英特尔##INTC# 是今年关注的最成功的股之一，从4月3号50元开始，到上涨目标139.34元。7月4号给出了107.03监测点来判断，现在跌到且跌破了。图二给出支撑点。调整好了以后还有上涨。

<@&1519026403734061156>#原油##CL!# 在给出的时间期限18号凌晨4点之前结束调整向上突破。这次从6月28日开始不断说反弹，实现较好。情况已经清晰了。这是上涨的第一段。上涨结束了吗？图二分享我的看法。 专栏 · 原油

<@&1519026403734061156>#SPCX##Spacex# 的下跌酣畅淋漓，三个下跌目标都实现了。是不是到底了？图二给出我的看法。 专栏 · spacex

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do.And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss)Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models…When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash.But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall.Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown.I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.Francis: everybody hating on serenity posting his -49% pnl is so lame to meits normal to have pullbacks as a trader and he still has a better ytd than all of youits all jealousy that he's grown to 1m followers and they wish they had the same numbers to sell their shitty substack

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do.And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss)Maybe this information democratization cannibalizes upsets some business models…When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash.But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall.Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown.I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.Francis: everybody hating on serenity posting his -49% pnl is so lame to meits normal to have pullbacks as a trader and he still has a better ytd than all of youits all jealousy that he's grown to 1m followers and they wish they had the same numbers to sell their shitty substack

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences:I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest.Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling.And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally.Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.LG trading: @aleabitoreddit Or like some that come out and say “I told you”. What a bunch of losers. I appreciate your transparency

動量組合（原超級成長股組合）是一個依據美股市場動量排名進行主動選股的策略。截止2026年7月17日，組合今年的回報是 8.76%。組合的持倉如下：目前共持有10隻股票，只有2筆ES看跌期權組合的持倉配置將依據個股的基本面情況、動量強度和價格圖形（趨勢特徵）進行調整。—————————本文非投資建議，請參閱 【讀者須知】。

今天美股下跌，所有寬基指數均下跌，絕大多數行業指數下跌。這種幾乎全面下跌的情形已經很久未見了。標普期貨ES跌至20均線下方，納指期貨跌至60均線下方，雖然盤中有強烈反彈（符合盤前筆記的預期），但是未能回到相應均線上方。半導體指數 SOXX 在下方籌碼峰止跌回升，但也沒能站上60均線，並且是衝高回落的姿態，此為弱勢。有可能將繼續向下方（470元）尋找支持。另外，這段時間一直保持強勢的標普等權指數 RSP 今天也呈現衝高回落的姿態，非常不舒服。如果 RSP 的日K圖形跌破20均線，則有可能引發一波市場全體回撤休整行情。綜上所述，目前市場偏弱，缺乏領導股，沒有「旗幟」的市場是沒有戰鬥力的。由此推斷下週市場可能還會慣性向下——除非上述標的都能回到相應的均線上方，請注意這個前提——依據盤前的計畫，我已增加保護頭寸。截止週五收盤，TQQQ組合今年的回報為21.25%持倉中有兩筆NQ看跌期權和一筆TQQQ看漲期權祝週末愉快～—————————本文非投資建議，請參閱 【讀者須知】。

Thanks, love reading the comments!Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations.But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on:- Much higher silicon photonics module volumes- scale out, scale up, scale across volumes- 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins- increase in AI capexThis is typically very material read through on the optical sector since:I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing.Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too.Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings.TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.Steven Xu: @aleabitoreddit long time lurker, just wanted to update you on a recent development: Goldman Sachs updated Innolights price target to an insane 2581 Yuan/share during this downturn. Today's trading session saw the stock trading at 979.46 a share.

4.79 加回5.0卖出的那部分conl

864加回884出的那部分mu