截止美東時間03:00，標普期貨ES和納指期貨NQ在1小時級別圖形依然運行在所有均線下方，均線空頭排列。結合之前的筆記，ES需要回到日K級別20均線（對應7540）上方，NQ要回到日K60均線（對應29000）上方，才算是多頭爭取到了有利位置。經驗上看，目前的形勢是跌破密集成交區（籌碼峰）之後，均線剛剛張嘴向下，這種形態除非有外力影響，否則市場的慣性會繼續向下。簡言之，黑線之下不宜看多。—————————本文非投資建議，請參閱【讀者須知】。

2026-07-20 06:23

原文：
Some updates on bottleneck timelines:

- ABF substrates: 1 year
/ eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates

- HDI Boards: Over 6 months
/ Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787)

- Multilayer boards: ~6 months
/ Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368),

- CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials)
/ Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004)
Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth

- MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+

MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492)
Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH
Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again

Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies.

But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs.

Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

翻译：
一些关于瓶颈时间线的更新：

- ABF 基材：1 年
/ 例如 Ajinomoto (2802) 为 ABF 薄膜提供基材，Ibiden、Unimicron、Nan Ya PCB 等公司也生产基材

- 高密度插件板（HDI Boards）：超过 6 个月

- 多层板：约 6 个月
/ Victory Giant、WUS (002463)、$TTMI、Gold Circuit Electronics (2368)

- 铜箔基板（CCL）：超过 6 个月（材料严重短缺）
Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / 高压低粘度铜箔。 Nittobo / 玻璃纤维布

- 多层陶瓷电容器（MLCCs）、芯片电阻器、钽电容器、铝电解电容器：15-20 周到 1 年以上

芯片电阻器：Yageo、Walsin、KOA (6999)、Rohm (6963) 和 $VSH
钽电容器：Kyocera/AVX、Yageo/KEMET、$VSH

铝电解电容器：Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | 时间线来源于 Digitimes，我添加了相关公司。

但实际情况更复杂，因为 MLCC 和其他元件混合了通用类型和人工智能直流电源。

无论如何，这只是一个有用的映射。

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substr...

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787)- Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004)Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth- MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492)Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSHTantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH againAluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs.Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

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