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Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts:Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts.Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise.In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

顺哥。有一点我们必须承认中国的伟大。这一次回国我看到中国人非常灵活，效率非常高，顺哥平常炒股炒到老眼昏花，高度近视。现在需要带老花眼镜。相信大家都知道在美国配一副眼镜要两三个星期才能拿，但是在中国今天配眼镜，验度数，明天就可以拿，这种效率是美国或者西方国家永远无法做到的。所以我认为人工智能只要中国掌握到技术，它的发挥效率一定比美国强10倍。还有一点，中国人绝对是世界最勤奋的人，只要有机会，他们就一定可以上位，所以美国佬现在是吃尽了独天地厚的资源特别害怕中国这种效率

顺哥。这次回国考察觉得总体经济环境还是不是太好。除了饮食行业勉强维持，很多实体店铺都赚不了钱。大家都是网购为主，低成本，低价钱。越廉价东西越高人气，高一点价钱就无人问津。年轻人发展的机会不多。不是网红，电商，就是外卖。毕竟人工智能高科技的工作就这么多。做实体店铺基本赔钱。年轻人失业率上升。中国老人基本还是有稳定收入，最幸福的人群。一个月退休金一线城市普遍一万人民币非常质润。所以老人家都希望长命百岁可以继续养家糊口下一代。70 80 后的男人准备进入退休状况现在非常吃香。很多年轻女孩特别喜欢。这也让顺哥有所感动流泪我们这一代人没有给社会抛弃。顺哥昨天去高端品牌走一圈，基本人都不多。偶尔见到几个人进来都是享受冷气的人而不是购物的。就算这次张家界旅游人也明显下降，旅客也不敢消费。都是逛完就回家。有钱的外国人来中国也不多，来中国的都是一些俄罗斯，非洲，印度这些比较穷的外国人，比国内人砍价还狠。很多都是来白嫖。所以基本消费刺激也不多。虽然短期没有太多盼头，大部分房地产关联的产业都崩溃影响深远。但是安慰的是国内人工智能的发展非常可观。去深圳兜了一圈让我看到中国未来的希望。我认为人工智能下半场中国的实体布局强过美国，起码database center 或者能源供应储备，或者人工成本这些都是优势。中国人非常灵活，效率非常快。所以人工智能竞争下半场应该属于中国。一句话，虽然不碰中概股短线，玩美股现在就致富。但是人工智能中国发展的很快，所以中长线可以布局中国人工智能龙头阿里巴巴，腾讯，百度这些。这些都是我觉得不错的投资方向

顺哥。goog 业绩不是太震撼人心，所以股票短时间不能升幅。但是中长线目标没有变，等待Gemni Ai 重新更新才会反转。vip 小群已经给下来买入点位。唯一可以看的是goog 继续烧钱，利于硬件板块。所以soxl 现在跌不下来。我希望soxl 跌下来给多一点机会我继续all in. 现在继续躺平赚钱。今天sell call 已经布局了一些。crwv nbis 最近大家已经赚钱，Ceg vst 最近升幅都不错。大家都应该赚钱。继续持有。Tsla 业绩让我失望，加上negative cash flow, 短期不碰Tsla. 烧钱太快。卖车赚钱速度迎合不了烧钱速度。VIP 小群已经提供很多点位。大群因为太多人偷我的分享点位去收费或者杀猪，所以经过高层讨论，我们大群主要讨论趋势，小群给点位。大群已经很多信息。但是如果觉得不够，如果要加入VIP 群，唯一方法是 email [email protected] 或者直接联系Esther 微信ID Toursforfun999。因为已经很多人申请。门槛太低也是问题。毕竟世界只有一个顺哥愿意这样无私分享。我个人不会联系任何群友，也不会私人收任何费用或者红包。更加不会帮你私人去操盘。如果有人冒仿我的名义去做这些事情，请马上告知。我五年来所有一切都是为了推动社会公益事业和心理健康平台。现在发展的越来越好，都是大家同心协力的成果。非常感恩。

Elon Musk from $TSLA ER transcript:"I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion."It's rare to get such a high conviction statement on the humanoid market/TAM coming from a visionary like Elon. And I share his sentiment for humanoids (since I'm personally long Agility).Elon stated that Tesla is targeting Fremont production in late July or August with Optimus Gen-3 release while preparing a 2nd Optimus factory at Giga Texas. Old decks quoted 1M+ capacity/year for Fremont and 10M+ for Gigafactory Texas. So it seems like Tesla has a plan to lead US robotics programs and catch up to China in terms of mass production efforts?TLDR: Elon directionally knows what's up and coming since he probably watches a lot of Star Wars. And his opinion is humanoids + Optimus will be the biggest thing ever to come.

今天美股市場小跌，指數看上去還很強，但是市場寬度正在迅速崩潰。如下圖所示：這表明市場絕大多數股票已經走弱，指數由少數股票支持——我們都知道——是半導體類股票。然而，半導體指數 SOXX 在近期出現了較大的資金流出，說明一級市場機構投資者淨贖回。原因不重要，重要的是它們的行為，以及市場運行的方向是否驗證這種行為。另外，用於評估市場整體健康水平的標普等權指數 RSP 目前在20均線組附近帖伏著，有一種即將跳水的感覺。近期市場輪動效應減弱，如果半導體挺不住，跳下去是大概率事件。甚至我認為跳下去是有利健康的。由於目前所有的寬基指數都是多頭排列的狀態，且均線之間的距離比較大，跳下去跌不深、有反彈。而最糟糕的情況是，均線已經非常靠近，一旦下跌就會跌穿所有均線，導致均線迅速向下拐頭、交叉，反彈又會受到下行均線的壓制，這種跌法就會跌很久，甚至會跌出一個熊市來——目前並沒有這種風險。因此越早跌、跌得越嚇人越好，恢復起來也會非常快。截止發稿，標普期貨ES和納指期貨NQ盤前跳空下跌（缺口在15分鐘以下級別可見），兩大指數再一次跌回到1小時級別所有均線下方。如之前的筆記所述，如果紅藍均線無法形成多頭交叉，而灰色均線向下穿越紅藍均線，則打開了下行空間。總結，目前的美股市場沒有參與價值，做好保護，等待機會。—————————本文非投資建議，請參閱 【讀者須知】。

$GOOGL updates FY 2026 capex guidance:To $195B-$205B. Up from $180B-$190B. Google is also expected to significantly increase capex in 2027. This is perhaps the most bullish read through on upstream semis from a hyperscaler.

$GOOGL now has 950M monthly Gemini users and processes 22B API tokens/min. Compared to 750M back in February. Absurd growth adding 200 million more users in a few months. Kinda explains why they ran out of compute, then cut allocations to $META and others. Very unlikely AI capex will slow down given.Serenity: $GOOGL reported earnings today:EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expectedGoogle Cloud Revenue: $24.77B

10.71出掉10.88 剩下一半nok

$GOOGL reported earnings today:EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expectedGoogle Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line).So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand.Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.

347出掉昨天348的谷歌a

5.29买回5.85卖出的那部份conl