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美股盤前觀察 2026-07-24

截止美東時間01:30,人氣股MU和SNDK夜盤下跌,前一日尾盤搶籌的資金全部被埋。半導體板塊目前是市場唯一的支柱,過度擁擠的地方要防止「踩踏事故」。目前美股市場上,市值大於1000億美元的科技股中,均線多頭排列(20>60>120),且價格高於20均線組至少1%的股票僅有以下幾隻:也就是說,需要密切關注這些股票,如果它們守不住多頭趨勢,市場的支柱就垮了。或者市場需要講其他的故事,需要樹立起新的「旗幟」,目前似乎還沒有跡象。標普指數ES和納指期貨NQ目前1小時級別依然是空頭排列,這種形態要想重回多頭排列非常不容易。因此,暫時還沒有止跌的跡象。從日K級別上看,似乎又在走今年1~3月的形態,緩慢波動下移,然後加速跌再回頭。以上是我的猜測,總之,做好保護,等機會。指數型投資者沒有跌到零的風險,依然可以在下跌中按照一定的規則增持,不要憑感覺做事。我的兩種策略供參考:Hi5組合,每月定投策略:https://www.patreon.com/TheMarketMemo/posts/hi5zu-he-90799255TQQQ組合,槓鈴策略:https://www.patreon.com/TheMarketMemo/posts/tqqq-chang-qi-zi-146010736—————————本文非投資建議,請參閱 【讀者須知】。

抱團取暖|交易筆記 2026-07-23

今天美股市場下跌,符合預期,並且是所有最壞的預期都發生了。若不是少數幾隻儲存股支持,指數恐怕會更難看。然而,經驗上看,資金在少數股票中抱團取暖是非常危險的,萬一撐不住就會報復性補跌。半導體指數 SOXX 目前處在20和60均線組之間,這裡正在構築一個大型的籌碼峰。如果能夠站上20均線組(同時也站上了籌碼峰),在大盤配合的情形下,接下去還有機會再來一波多頭行情;如果站不上去,這裡就是頭部(大量的籌碼套牢)。所以,SOXX如果再次跌至紅色水平線下方,恐怕是大事不妙了。目前SOXX的期權價格非常貴,隱含波動率非常高 IV rank=95, IV Percentile=97%,說明有非常多的人在用期權做保護。今天標普等權指數 RSP 跳下20均線組,市場寬度也繼續走低,總體上士氣渙散。不過我有個習慣,在市場下跌的時候一定要買一點什麼。恰好今天GOOGL跌到一個重要的籌碼峰,我增持了一些 GOOGL 看漲期權(2027/6/17 330 Call)。昨天投機做多的黃金和銅期貨觸及底線,已止損出局。—————————本文非投資建議,請參閱 【讀者須知】。

Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO r...

Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization).There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI".Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years".There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay.And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light.But TLDR:Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.S: @aleabitoreddit Is AAOI in trouble if CPO is coming soon?

RT AMD: The feeling’s mutual. 🤝

RT AMDThe feeling’s mutual. 🤝Serenity: $AMD reached out directly to hand me some special swag!Apparently they only made 30 of these bandanas? I love AMD and Lisa Su now.

From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks: Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up net...

From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks:Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up networking. And expects other hyperscalers + industry to go down the CPO route.One AI infra executive at a company involved in a hyperscaler CPO programs said they had seen no indication of CPO scale up supply chain delays.Pushing back on recent 3rd party delay reports.This was informal commentary, not official AMD or partner guidance.

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