原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Think optical rally today from $SIVE to $AAOI was kinda multifaceted.
Goldman Sachs upgraded their optical forecast:
$67.7 billion (+33% revision) -> $131.4 billion (+81% revision) -> $148.5 billion (+115% revision) from 2026 -> 2028.
- According to the report, the 1.6T silicon optical module uses four 70mW CW Lasers, with a total value of $15-20 ($3.75–5/laser) EML uses 8 200G EML, which is about $160.
- Reported 80% SiPH penetration (good for $SOI) and four CW lasers per 1.6T module
- Rubin Ultra moves from three 3.2T modules/GPU to five, plus two 1.6T modules (more optical content per chip)
- $GOOGL TPU v9 adds another substantial source of demand.
Basically: Much higher TAM revision, more optical content per chip (really really good for laser companies)
$QCOM deal with $AMZN adds another layer for 1.6T related demand, which was explicitly included. Qualcomm had some optical acquisitions recently so that's probably related.
Same with $GLW for fiber (but different parts of the supply chain)
翻译：
我认为今天从 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 的光学行情有点多面性。
高盛上调了他们的光学预测：
- 根据报告，1.6T 硅光模块使用四个 70mW 连续波激光器，总价值 $15-20（每个激光器 $3.75–5），EML 使用 8 个 200G EML，约 $160。
- 报告称 SiPH 渗透率为 80%（对 $SOI 有利），每个 1.6T 模块配备四个连续波激光器。
- Rubin Ultra 从每 GPU 三个 3.2T 模块提升到五个，并增加两个 1.6T 模块（每颗芯片的光学内容更多）。
- $GOOGL TPU v9 带来另一大需求来源。
基本上：TAM 大幅上调，芯片光学内容增加（对激光公司非常非常有利）。
$QCOM 与 $AMZN 的合作为 1.6T 相关需求再添一层，这一点已明确计入。Qualcomm 最近进行了一些光学收购，可能与此有关。
对 $GLW 的光纤业务也是如此（但属于供应链的不同环节）。
Think optical rally today from $SIVE to $AAOI was kinda multifaceted.
Goldman Sachs upgraded their optical forecast:
$67.7 billion (+33% revision) -> $131.4 billion (+81% revision) -> $148.5 billion (+115% revision) from 2026 -> 2028.
- According to the report, the 1.6T silicon optical module uses four 70mW CW Lasers, with a total value of $15-20 ($3.75–5/laser) EML uses 8 200G EML, which is about $160.
- Reported 80% SiPH penetration (good for $SOI) and four CW lasers per 1.6T module
- Rubin Ultra moves from three 3.2T modules/GPU to five, plus two 1.6T modules (more optical content per chip)
- $GOOGL TPU v9 adds another substantial source of demand.
Basically: Much higher TAM revision, more optical content per chip (really really good for laser companies)
$QCOM deal with $AMZN adds another layer for 1.6T related demand, which was explicitly included. Qualcomm had some optical acquisitions recently so that's probably related.
Same with $GLW for fiber (but different parts of the supply chain)
翻译：
我认为今天从 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 的光学行情有点多面性。
高盛上调了他们的光学预测：
- 根据报告，1.6T 硅光模块使用四个 70mW 连续波激光器，总价值 $15-20（每个激光器 $3.75–5），EML 使用 8 个 200G EML，约 $160。
- 报告称 SiPH 渗透率为 80%（对 $SOI 有利），每个 1.6T 模块配备四个连续波激光器。
- Rubin Ultra 从每 GPU 三个 3.2T 模块提升到五个，并增加两个 1.6T 模块（每颗芯片的光学内容更多）。
- $GOOGL TPU v9 带来另一大需求来源。
基本上：TAM 大幅上调，芯片光学内容增加（对激光公司非常非常有利）。
$QCOM 与 $AMZN 的合作为 1.6T 相关需求再添一层，这一点已明确计入。Qualcomm 最近进行了一些光学收购，可能与此有关。
对 $GLW 的光纤业务也是如此（但属于供应链的不同环节）。
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