原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Just my random thought on my favorite mega-cap stocks right now.
But if you're curious: $AMZN, Samsung, $NVDA, $TSM, and $AVGO are my favorites.
TSM - I maintain my bullish stance since last year (despite $INTC / Samsung competition), since it's the center of the AI buildout, with $MRVL and all your big tech completely reliant on it.
It has the ability to price hike (which it has), which should increase margins and profitability by a lot.
I was long calls back at like 34% IV last year, but ended up pivoting into other names.
Nvidia - 70% growth, when it would be 100%+ without supply constraints, what can I say.
I think a lot of their "monopoly" is cemented by how they do LTAs (lasers, memory) with inventory procurement to ecosystem investments. And they kinda own everyone by now that a lot of the ASIC hyperscaler bear cases went away.
I would be more cautious in 2027 though, as of now things still look good, just in case capex peaks in 2028.
Broadcom - 100% growth followed by 100% growth projections... ASIC pie keeps getting bigger despite Mediatek/Marvell going after market share.
Same with Nvidia around 2027 caution, just in case capex peaks in 2028.
$AMZN - Probably the "slowest growth" out of the ones above, but long term I think it deserves a much higher premium than $META and your other hyperscalers.
I can see everything they're doing from overnight toilet paper deliveries to AWS to their satellite program lasting 10 years from now (compared to Instagram). Trainium program also seems to be going well.
And the physical AI shift would probably make Amazon the largest beneficiary out of any hyperscaler, due to worker opex cuts.
I was much more bullish on $META before but after kinda thinking about it more, I feel like the other hyperscalers deserve bigger premiums due to defensibility compared to whatsapp/instagram/facebook type
Just my random thought on my favorite mega-cap stocks right now.
But if you're curious: $AMZN, Samsung, $NVDA, $TSM, and $AVGO are my favorites.
TSM - I maintain my bullish stance since last year (despite $INTC / Samsung competition), since it's the center of the AI buildout, with $MRVL and all your big tech completely reliant on it.
It has the ability to price hike (which it has), which should increase margins and profitability by a lot.
I was long calls back at like 34% IV last year, but ended up pivoting into other names.
Nvidia - 70% growth, when it would be 100%+ without supply constraints, what can I say.
I think a lot of their "monopoly" is cemented by how they do LTAs (lasers, memory) with inventory procurement to ecosystem investments. And they kinda own everyone by now that a lot of the ASIC hyperscaler bear cases went away.
I would be more cautious in 2027 though, as of now things still look good, just in case capex peaks in 2028.
Broadcom - 100% growth followed by 100% growth projections... ASIC pie keeps getting bigger despite Mediatek/Marvell going after market share.
Same with Nvidia around 2027 caution, just in case capex peaks in 2028.
$AMZN - Probably the "slowest growth" out of the ones above, but long term I think it deserves a much higher premium than $META and your other hyperscalers.
I can see everything they're doing from overnight toilet paper deliveries to AWS to their satellite program lasting 10 years from now (compared to Instagram). Trainium program also seems to be going well.
And the physical AI shift would probably make Amazon the largest beneficiary out of any hyperscaler, due to worker opex cuts.
I was much more bullish on $META before but after kinda thinking about it more, I feel like the other hyperscalers deserve bigger premiums due to defensibility compared to whatsapp/instagram/facebook type
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