原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery.
Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed!
Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others.
But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does.
I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect:
- There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end.
- $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising.
- $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100)
- and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung
Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods.
But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements.
Same concept can be applied to other sectors.
翻译：
现在 $MU 到 $SNDK 已经实现了大幅复苏。
提醒一下，内存瓶颈仍未改变，这点很好。
CW 激光器、基板等也是如此。
但短期情绪（取决于价格/宏观）经常会变化。
我认为很多需求失衡会比人们预期的更严重：
- 今日《日经》上的一些日本分销商称，内存需求缺口已达 40‑60%（比供给高出 67‑150%），且整体价格预计年底前上涨 50%。
- $SPCX 未计入 1.3 万亿美元的超大规模云服务商资本支出（我认为 Wells Fargo 估计约 2630 亿美元 AI 资本支出），因此整体资本支出数字可能会让人惊讶。
- $SNDK 预计毛利率将保持在 80% 直至 2030……（欢迎加入标普 100）
- 再者，像三星这样的公司现在已经对 2031 年有了长期可视性。
内存极其波动……我的部分仓位已上涨 270% 以上，所以在波动期间持仓相对容易。
但无论如何，运营基本面并不总是与短期价格走势一致。
同样的概念也适用于其他行业。
Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery.
Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed!
Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others.
But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does.
I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect:
- There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end.
- $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising.
- $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100)
- and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung
Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods.
But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements.
Same concept can be applied to other sectors.
翻译：
现在 $MU 到 $SNDK 已经实现了大幅复苏。
提醒一下，内存瓶颈仍未改变，这点很好。
CW 激光器、基板等也是如此。
但短期情绪（取决于价格/宏观）经常会变化。
我认为很多需求失衡会比人们预期的更严重：
- 今日《日经》上的一些日本分销商称，内存需求缺口已达 40‑60%（比供给高出 67‑150%），且整体价格预计年底前上涨 50%。
- $SPCX 未计入 1.3 万亿美元的超大规模云服务商资本支出（我认为 Wells Fargo 估计约 2630 亿美元 AI 资本支出），因此整体资本支出数字可能会让人惊讶。
- $SNDK 预计毛利率将保持在 80% 直至 2030……（欢迎加入标普 100）
- 再者，像三星这样的公司现在已经对 2031 年有了长期可视性。
内存极其波动……我的部分仓位已上涨 270% 以上，所以在波动期间持仓相对容易。
但无论如何，运营基本面并不总是与短期价格走势一致。
同样的概念也适用于其他行业。
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