原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting):
June revenue: ~$153M
July: ~$214M
August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year)
Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly similar 2026 wafer allocations to 2025 (MoneyDJ report).
The profitability is already really high as seen with July's monthly revenue (where they reported ~$109M net income).
So if pricing holds, and revenue increases, that would be very nice...
Now a lot of US people don't really care since it's in Taiwan, but if you're in the $MU / $SKHY, $SNDK trade.
Just educational purposes, it's a second order effect where your leading memory players prioritize AI/DC higher end memory and reduce allocations to older generations (causing shortages).
But... DDR4 since prices going up too much, so older gen memory products (DDR4) are getting redesigned with older gen memory (DDR3). And DDR3 products with DDR2.
And so on. Causing cascading supply chain shortages.
(DDR2 for example is boring/old memory used for cameras, printers, automotive back in the 2000s and not many ppl make them anymore).
And even your old DDR2 suppliers like Winbond are gradually withdrawing from the market too...
So ESMT is the beneficiary of DDR3/DDR2 shortages.
TLDR:
ESMT August revenue was ~$249M, up from ~$214M last month.
翻译：
只是更新一下我关于 ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3 内存想法。他们公布了 8 月营收（台湾有时会按月披露）：
6 月营收：约 1.53 亿美元
7 月：约 2.14 亿美元
8 月（最新）：约 2.49 亿美元，去年同期为 3530 万美元
尽管据报 2026 年晶圆分配与 2025 年大致相近（MoneyDJ 报道），月营收在两个月内仍增长了约 63%。
从 7 月月营收就能看出，盈利能力已经非常高了（当时他们披露的净利润约为 1.09 亿美元）。
所以如果价格能稳住，营收还能继续增长，那就会非常不错……
现在很多美国人其实不太在意，因为这是台湾的公司，但如果你在做 $MU / $SKHY、$SNDK 这类交易。
纯属科普，这是一个二阶传导效应：头部存储厂商会把 AI/DC 更高端的存储优先级提得更高，减少对老一代产品的分配（从而造成短缺）。
但……DDR4 由于价格涨得太多，老一代内存产品（DDR4）又开始改回使用更老一代内存（DDR3）。而 DDR3 产品又转向 DDR2。
以此类推。于是就会引发连锁式的供应链短缺。
（比如 DDR2，就是 2000
Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting):
June revenue: ~$153M
July: ~$214M
August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year)
Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly similar 2026 wafer allocations to 2025 (MoneyDJ report).
The profitability is already really high as seen with July's monthly revenue (where they reported ~$109M net income).
So if pricing holds, and revenue increases, that would be very nice...
Now a lot of US people don't really care since it's in Taiwan, but if you're in the $MU / $SKHY, $SNDK trade.
Just educational purposes, it's a second order effect where your leading memory players prioritize AI/DC higher end memory and reduce allocations to older generations (causing shortages).
But... DDR4 since prices going up too much, so older gen memory products (DDR4) are getting redesigned with older gen memory (DDR3). And DDR3 products with DDR2.
And so on. Causing cascading supply chain shortages.
(DDR2 for example is boring/old memory used for cameras, printers, automotive back in the 2000s and not many ppl make them anymore).
And even your old DDR2 suppliers like Winbond are gradually withdrawing from the market too...
So ESMT is the beneficiary of DDR3/DDR2 shortages.
TLDR:
ESMT August revenue was ~$249M, up from ~$214M last month.
翻译：
只是更新一下我关于 ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3 内存想法。他们公布了 8 月营收（台湾有时会按月披露）：
6 月营收：约 1.53 亿美元
7 月：约 2.14 亿美元
8 月（最新）：约 2.49 亿美元，去年同期为 3530 万美元
尽管据报 2026 年晶圆分配与 2025 年大致相近（MoneyDJ 报道），月营收在两个月内仍增长了约 63%。
从 7 月月营收就能看出，盈利能力已经非常高了（当时他们披露的净利润约为 1.09 亿美元）。
所以如果价格能稳住，营收还能继续增长，那就会非常不错……
现在很多美国人其实不太在意，因为这是台湾的公司，但如果你在做 $MU / $SKHY、$SNDK 这类交易。
纯属科普，这是一个二阶传导效应：头部存储厂商会把 AI/DC 更高端的存储优先级提得更高，减少对老一代产品的分配（从而造成短缺）。
但……DDR4 由于价格涨得太多，老一代内存产品（DDR4）又开始改回使用更老一代内存（DDR3）。而 DDR3 产品又转向 DDR2。
以此类推。于是就会引发连锁式的供应链短缺。
（比如 DDR2，就是 2000
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