原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals.
If you're curious about my take though:
We're seeing record visibility with
- memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs
- $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend.
- combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc).
vs.
uncomfortable macro where:
- Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%.
- July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y
- July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1%
-10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007
- Iran tensions continuing
- Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea
And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes.
There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map.
I'm not a macro expert but my take is:
The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints.
While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies.
I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight.
As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering.
I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout.
And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
翻译：
宏观因素显然在过去几个月削弱了高贝塔AI估值。但我仍尽量专注基本面。
如果你
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals.
If you're curious about my take though:
We're seeing record visibility with
- memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs
- $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend.
- combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc).
vs.
uncomfortable macro where:
- Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%.
- July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y
- July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1%
-10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007
- Iran tensions continuing
- Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea
And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes.
There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map.
I'm not a macro expert but my take is:
The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints.
While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies.
I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight.
As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering.
I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout.
And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
翻译：
宏观因素显然在过去几个月削弱了高贝塔AI估值。但我仍尽量专注基本面。
如果你
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