原文:
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译(公开)
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译(公开)
原文:
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER:
Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027:
- $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027
-> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers
- 3 pluggable makers (evaluation)
- 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment)
Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+:
- $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed))
-> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers
External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027:
- $POET (confirmed)
-> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users
- O-Net (confirmed)
-> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia
- Likely $AEVA (mapping)
-> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar
- SemiNex (confirmed)
Optical I/O for 2028:
- Ayar Labs (confirmed)
-> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink
- $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)
- Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)
- Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)
Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium.
In terms of capacity allocations:
- Win Semi
- 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations)
during an InP CW DFB laser shortage.
These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028.
Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028.
However my criticisms were:
=> Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences.
=> Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on.
=>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.)
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER:
Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027:
- $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027
-> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers
- 3 pluggable makers (evaluation)
- 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment)
Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+:
- $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed))
-> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers
External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027:
- $POET (confirmed)
-> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users
- O-Net (confirmed)
-> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia
- Likely $AEVA (mapping)
-> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar
- SemiNex (confirmed)
Optical I/O for 2028:
- Ayar Labs (confirmed)
-> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink
- $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)
- Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)
- Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)
Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium.
In terms of capacity allocations:
- Win Semi
- 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations)
during an InP CW DFB laser shortage.
These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028.
Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028.
However my criticisms were:
=> Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences.
=> Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on.
=>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.)
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